USCAPEWEATHERAF

I am going with 2-4" from canal to HYA and more than 4" from HYA eastward right now, 1-2" west of the Canal to Eastern CT. I think the 00z cycle will pick up on the more amplified pattern, that main shortwave over IA and MO is showing a more southward punch with a more northward punch up the coast, our 250mb jet develops over 150 knots of a streak over New England as the pattern amplifies ahead of the storm, the jet lifts north.

I think the odds have increased for at least an inch in your area. Satellite trends show us this is a more amplified pattern then the models shown.

Thing is, he isn't expecting nothing at this point.

I would read over the Juno thread during the summer and he was all over the last minute NE adjustment of the models and was doubting the Tuesday snows from that Blizzard. That is how I got to my 32" of snow, that day of snow. A huge plume of snows developed past 8:00 am and then Scott aka messenger was congratulating Scott and Will for a great job on the prediction of the day of snow.

Yeah I got 8-10" of snow I believe.

Yeah I don't think so, I did remember seeing Corey.

Will, the HRRR continues to remain rather amplified at all levels and almost closes off at 925-850mb with sufficient ridging ahead of the 500-700mb troughs and then the 250mb level the streak is amplifying each new run.

Hey Scott, Ray,, was Scott aka Messenger at the GTG at Clarke's December of 2014 when I met most of the BOS area guys?

thanks

Can you post any maps?

Our big time drop in pressure field and our 700-925mb level push southward from the upper level northern stream lead system is finally pushing northward. Our area is responding to a ridge moving northeastward or weakening.

No, he doesn't, he does quite well.

Yes my dad plows for a living in the winter here. Other than his landscaping.

There are two dominant areas of potential circulations present right now in the overall envelope. One over NW LA and the other is developing over central TX, just west of Abilene. The one further west is in response to a digging disturbance at 700-850mb level.

It brings over .25-.50" of QPF to the area.

I was looking at the 19z run and when it was ending, it had the low down to 1011mb over VA.

Yes that is the answer. Man, you guys are unbelievable. Look if you think isn't going to impact you, why are you in this thread, there are other discussions for those of you not interested. However, this greatly impacts my area and any adjustments either way can lead to a higher or lower impact. This storm is in an explosive environment, the system could explode upon hitting the Gulf Stream boundary and as it feels the trailing energy from the GRT Lakes dive into the southern branch trough. We have a few ideas that suggests a benchmark track of a sub 990mb low is indeed still on the table, and this would bring the foot plus band onto the Cape and Islands. It is right now 50 miles east of me. That correction can happen in less than 42 hours.

HRRR keeps getting better.

HRRR 12z model was off by 3 hours in development of the surface low down to 1018mb over northern LA and southern AR border, it was there at 19z the model as of the 12z run had it there at 22z tonight.

I agree Anthony and not for reasons such as just being a weenie.

Our parent surface low has developed over the border between Louisiana and Arkansas, low level cumulus is developing from moist south to southeast flow behind the departing surface high over the central GOM.

I would honestly bet on a 995mb low on the benchmark, models are trying to latch onto the lead energy that breaks from the overall progress of the upper trough, and tries to catch the convection that explodes on the east side of the low. This should be pushed back west and the 12z EURO is stronger with the surface low when it reaches 40N latitude.

Bob, there is better ridging out ahead of the primary coastal energy shortwave and that trailing shortwave with energy diving out of the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic should act to pull the storm into itself, not push it away and in doing so it will explode.

12z SPC HREF ensembles show max of 4-6 over the Cape and Islands, but it is still almost 40 hours away.

The mesomodels are focusing the primary low pressure development on a piece of energy on the east side of the circulation. This low comes up the coast in association with the development of convection over the Gulf Stream and it could be primary convective feedback in the Mesos focusing the energy in the wrong area of the overall surface circulation. We have seen these episodes impact the track and intensity of models before one big example was the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard. There have been others. However, the overall development of the h5 energy aloft and the surface pattern favor the western circulation as the H5 energy from the northern stream flies into the overall H5 upper level circulation. This energy should be trying to pull the surface system northwest, not push it out. UKMET does this well, while the Mesos push it out more to the east of the benchmark. You fix this issue and correct it, it should give better feedback to the upper system and allow a benchmark track of a bombing out low undergoing rapid cyclogenesis. This is where the blossoming of the precipitation shield to the west and northwest should occur where the bombing cycle reaches maximum output.