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My novel draft nine is completed. 100,069 words. over 215 pages ten font. Ready for revising and editing period, begins Tuesday at 9:00 a.m.

My The Awakening Dawn draft is complete. Will begin editing and revising period in two days, take the next 48-hours and relax. Then get back to work. Over 100,000 words in this draft. Over 16,000 words in two days, yesterday alone I wrote over 12,000 words.

I need a date too, I am unable after 8 pm tomorrow night but any other time is great

I don't have the premium account for zoom, so someone else will have to be the group host today.

Are we doing this virtual GTG?

No sure how accurate this statement is in terms of data, but to me last summer was really good. It felt like most days were sun filled, and after the tornados on July 23rd, 2019 it felt like it was a pleasant and warm summer on the Cape.

Love the idea Cold Miser

Snow Map shows that parts of ACK and CHH could see as much as 6" while the Canal could see 2-4" and the easternmost parts of SE MA could see 1-3" of snow, high wind gusts over 65mph expected east of the Canal and 74mph Plus for ACK.

Well everyone, this one isn't ours once again, models have gone too far east even for major impacts for the Cape and Islands. Good luck next winter, we will need it.

The last three weeks of weather across Southern New England, especially considering Cape and the Islands as been so boring it has felt like early Spring. However, models are beginning to show a better consensus of an impactful nor'easter tracking east of the 40N/70W benchmark in the day 4 1/2 to 6 period and there are legit signs it could be an extremely impactful storm. What the impacts are exactly won't be known until Thursday at the latest. We have time to figure out a few issues. Until then, just be weary of the potential, while the weather takes care of the rest.

A decent to significant snow threat exists between Monday, FEB 10th and Wednesday FEB 12th of this upcoming work week. Models are showing a strong -EPO/+PNA ridge couplet with a strong -AO arctic vortex near Hudson Bay, Canada and a stalled out front along the East Coast of the US. We don't know the eventual tilt of the short wave trough that comes out of Canada in the arctic jet and we don't know the position of the coastal low and its track or strength. We don't know the presence of enough cold air to produce snow. However, this is our first legit shot at something significant. Stay Tuned!

Latest 6z NAM run comes in hot with over a foot of snow for Chatham in about a 12 t0 18 hour period from 10z Saturday, February 1st to around 00 FEB 2nd or 7pm EST Saturday night. The latest run of the NAM intensifies the shortwave, as a stronger negative tilt occurs as it approaches the NC coastline, around 35N: 75W. This run also brings the surface low from the central GOM to the interior of SC and NC before it reaches the location of 35N: 75W. Then the low tracks Northeastward towards the 40N:70W benchmark location which favors a heavy snow threat for Cape Cod and the Islands. Even the HIRES NAM or 3KM Resolution NAM brings the surface low closer and throws over .3" of Liquid over CHH as the run does not go beyond 60 hours. However, the storm will start within 48 hours of the 12z runs this late morning into the early afternoon. Also water vapor imagery suggests that the northern stream is digging more southward in last few frames than what the recent 00z and 06z guidance even suggests. We could see a sea/saw effect continue for the next day and then trends could be west towards 24 hours and closer to the onset of the precipitation. For a bigger and more severe event, like talking blizzard potential, we need a stronger phase, a colder scenario and a much stronger surface low passing at the benchmark or just about 24 miles west of it.

This morning, I am going to share with you why a snow event is possible and not yet certain.... Why it is possible... NAO is in transition still positive but diving towards neutral slowing duration of the precipitation and storm's movement based upon phasing and capture potential at H5 PNA/EPO coupled ridging over the western CONUS could lead to an earlier phase potential as the northern stream disturbance is shoved southward across the Midwest and OH Valley regions allowing a cold infusion of air before the storm reaches our latitude. -AO transition, as the EPO/PNA ridge builds poleward and allows the northern stream to dig southward across the central US, this also builds into the western Arctic Circle and disrupts the Polar Vortex and the +AO domain and turns towards a -AO domain allowing the arctic jet to become involved in the weather next week producing another chance at a storm or two Again questions remain in the details and eventual A)/NAO domains, we will get help with that in the next 24 hours.

Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential. The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events. The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today. I could take the morning of the first flakes before we have an idea of the track of the storm. Stay tuned!

Long term pattern is shaping up to bring a parade of massive coastal super storms, at least the potential. A strong combination of a -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern is shaping up around Day 8 onward. Right now nothing is ever set in stone, but the potential exists for a weekend snow threat next weekend first weekend of February 2/3rd or Super Bowl Bomb party once again, like the Blizzards of the past. However, the Patriots will not be participants for the first time in four years. Enough with the sad news, the weather pattern evolving is enough to be satisfied for a temporary rain event this weekend. With the lack of true arctic air in place, we should be glad this storm is in land runner type with rain into Central New England. Otherwise, a mixed precip event would be quite devastating. However, I am confident in a storm happening next weekend, and perhaps a snow threat midweek this upcoming week. Still a ways to go...

It appears at this moment that the next three snow threats fall on these dates or combination of dates: 15/16th, 18/19th and 20/21, almost every other day kind of succession pattern as the jet becomes quite active with multiple energetic systems in the flow. As you try and solve a puzzle, you try to fit the pieces in the area you believe it belongs looking at the picture it is supposed to be on the front of the box. Weather forecasting is the same basic idea. The difference and is a major difference is that that puzzle is constantly changing in every direction, every piece is changing, and every place that piece is supposed to be is changing. The weather is a puzzle in constant flux. The idea of weather systems is the transferring of heat from tropics to polar regions. A major storm develops along the boundary between extreme heat and extreme cold. It is meant to transfer that heat to the coldest reaches of the world. The world is constant balance, and needs to remain in this constant balance to sustain life and the human race and everything it encompasses. It is such a perfect design the weather makes no mistakes. However, since human error is a major problem in our lives and since it is all over the place, errors will always happen. We are not perfect. Avoiding going into a religious diatribe, I will go back to the next three events. Right now, the pattern appears to favor EPO ridging combining with the PNAP ridging present. With ridging potential in both locations, we could have a major push of cold air into the eastern 2/3rd of the CONUS in the 15/16th period. The pattern is in flux and there is hardly any agreement overall on the H5 pattern aloft. Some guidance suggests the pattern transitions from a +EPO/-PNA to a -EPO/+PNA then back and forth for these next three events. So it could be a snow event followed by rain event and then back to snow event for SNE. Right now, a lot can change even for an event in the next 72 hours. I will have more tomorrow evening. Unless something big changes.

Just to update the area, with another day tomorrow at least 10 degrees F above normal expect temps to drop throughout the week. Snow returns next weekend. Not until then, the threats for this week are rain at this point in SE New England.

I-95 corridor from eastern CT to NE MA - 2-4" SE MA interior includes city of Boston, MA 2-4" Cape Cod Canal eastward to Hyannis 4-6" Hyannis eastward to Provincetown 6"+ Snowfall forecasts for the January 7/8, 2029 Snow event

**Alert Level - Awareness!** Potential Nor'easter impending day 4 - given both uncertainty and time frame, this level is only for awareness. Given unknown factors at play and will not know the extent of the systems at hand for the next 40 hours, we will not gain confidence until a better consensus develops and we get closer to the event period. January 5th is the date for the nor'easter impact period. We will know the most by 00z Saturday, Friday evening, 7 pm cycle. That is all for this moment, another alert level will be issued tomorrow around the same time, we will either continue alert level awareness or upgrade to potential. The next update tomorrow evening.

**signal for a decent moderate snow event is increasing at least for the interior portions of SE MA and the rest of SNE. Cape Cod and the immediate coast is still in question.** A large long wave troughing pattern is developing in the next 48 hours as a major piece of energy amplifies the trough as it enters the eastern US. Still questions to intensity, track of parent system and lack of cold air source. I will keep you abreast of the situation at hand.

Have a happy New Year's eve of celebration and remembering our past year and last decade of greatness and welcome in a New Year and a new Decade of fun, love, health and wealth to everyone and their family. Love you all. Hope to a snowy winter ahead.

All I can say to sum up what the pattern looks like the next ten days for coastal SE MA, is "Meh" a good ten day period to write a novel. I will update once something pops on the radar. Enjoy the 50s tomorrow.

The next seven to nine days the pattern supports a rathe benign and quiet week, especially from this weekend through next Friday, with temps moderating through the lower 40s for highs support a rather just below average temperatures for early winter and late December period. Averages are rather low this time of the year and into the January into March period for the next year. The 2020 New Year are supportive of a rather snowy period. Latest models in the medium to long range support a reload of cold air into the Arctic and then unleashed into Canada and then the US. End of the month models are showing several coastal storm threats. Time will tell, the NAO goes negative, the PNA goes positive and the AO goes negative. That supports highly anomalous cold in the eastern CONUS and a high likelihood of snow. Time will tell!

Simply, forecasting the weather is never perfect. In fact, the unpredictable nature of the weather is what fascinates those of us, who love the weather. The extremes, the puzzles that nature provides. What does allow a storm like Juno, NEMO, JONAS, or even Neptune form and impact us with such tremendous ferocity, I personally still put the Blizzard of 2005 ahead of JUNO, we received 35" of snow in my front yard from that storm. Now what I want to discuss with the viewers is simply the overall synoptic landscape of the weather patterns evolving next week. Right now the Saturday storm looks definite, and I would say we are at the 65% threshold that Cape Cod and SNE will receive a flooding rainstorm. The phase of cold air and the sub-tropical moisture connection is lacking and therefore not a cause for concern. The storm on Tuesday looks like at least a 55% probability for precipitation, question becomes, eventual track of the system. Now, there is a caveat next week that could change the outcome of the Tuesday storm, or become a storm on its own. A large piece of the Polar Vortex that moves south very slowly I might add, out of northern Canada and the Arctic Circle, which is why I know the arctic jet is present. The 12z NAM and GFS have slightly altering scenarios at 84 hours, and that is as far as the NAM goes, so any further is pointless. At 84 hours, the NAM is weaker and less amplified in the arctic jet over central/southern Canada. The GFS is actually more amplified, but the southern energy is too far ahead of the arctic shortwave to have much of a chance to phase. EURO is showing this energy as well, but the models are at odds at location and intensity of the shortwave and how it influences our phantom coastal around 100-120 hours out at this time. Still a lot of details to try and iron out which brings us to the biggest potential of the season to date around the first few days of Christmas week. Around the December 22-25th period, models have been hinting at a potential monster coastal nor'easter developing. The details and the impact that it will happen have yet to be determined. We have a lot of time left before that is even discussed more than at random at this time. So for the timeline I have written below, our certainty is this weekend, this late afternoon into Saturday, a major rainstorm, BUF could see a foot of snow. The further out in time, the more uncertain we are. Thanks for reading. 1.) Friday/Saturday December 13-14th, 2019 - rainstorm 2.) Monday evening/Tuesday morning December 16-17th, 2019 - mixed precipitation event, mainly rain for Cape Cod 3.) Wednesday potential coastal storm, not given yet, potential impacts snow and wind 4.) Following Monday into Wednesday December 23-25th, 2019 - Super Storm type nor'easter, potential for all impacts.

Southern New England and most of the I-95 corridor of the NE CONUS is in line for a 1-3 widespread snowfall, and a narrow band or two of 4+ inches.