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A storm that intense at that latitude will not be intense or as intense in CT as it was in DE, and by the time it reaches far enough north in latitude, it will occlude and weaken substantially just like JONAS.

You honestly don't want that location with that intensity. Honestly can't tell you enough that is not what you want. Unless you want to see failure.

The 18z GFS was much closer to a full phase interaction.

I have sacrificed a ton of rain this winter, I am done, but I don't have a choice. I wish I could have control, but it doesn't work like that in life.

Phasing also begins around hour 84 on the 00z models

Snow develops over the mountains of WV, western NC and VA by the 4th of March, the next two days, will help a lot in determining the final solution. Our southern stream should not have more surprises in the modeling after 12z tomorrow, and then it is all dependent upon the northern stream evolution and phasing interaction. I just don't know if I turn out to be all rain and be sacrificed for the I-95 corridor cities and region, I would hate for that.

Why does everyone think this system will be different then the rest of the systems this winter season? A progressive pattern stays that way until it finally fully breaks down. The breakdown doesn't occur before this system does, so why the change? Why do we expect different results with the same pattern?

Ain't happening guys, let's just welcome Spring.

There is the monster negative tilt.

Ray, the 00z EURO at hour 120 compared to hour 144 for the 00z last night shows an appreciable more westward pattern, especially for the +PNA ridging out west.

Potential for Ocean Effect Snow, could be decent accumulations from HYA eastward. Still a Friday event, need to watch next few days.

A decent to significant snow threat exists between Monday, FEB 10th and Wednesday FEB 12th of this upcoming work week. Models are showing a strong -EPO/+PNA ridge couplet with a strong -AO arctic vortex near Hudson Bay, Canada and a stalled out front along the East Coast of the US. We don't know the eventual tilt of the short wave trough that comes out of Canada in the arctic jet and we don't know the position of the coastal low and its track or strength. We don't know the presence of enough cold air to produce snow. However, this is our first legit shot at something significant. Stay Tuned!

Southern New England needs to watch a clipper over the Great Lakes right now will swing southeastward to the South Coast of SNE tomorrow evening. A few inches is still possible.

Latest 6z NAM run comes in hot with over a foot of snow for Chatham in about a 12 t0 18 hour period from 10z Saturday, February 1st to around 00 FEB 2nd or 7pm EST Saturday night. The latest run of the NAM intensifies the shortwave, as a stronger negative tilt occurs as it approaches the NC coastline, around 35N: 75W. This run also brings the surface low from the central GOM to the interior of SC and NC before it reaches the location of 35N: 75W. Then the low tracks Northeastward towards the 40N:70W benchmark location which favors a heavy snow threat for Cape Cod and the Islands. Even the HIRES NAM or 3KM Resolution NAM brings the surface low closer and throws over .3" of Liquid over CHH as the run does not go beyond 60 hours. However, the storm will start within 48 hours of the 12z runs this late morning into the early afternoon. Also water vapor imagery suggests that the northern stream is digging more southward in last few frames than what the recent 00z and 06z guidance even suggests. We could see a sea/saw effect continue for the next day and then trends could be west towards 24 hours and closer to the onset of the precipitation. For a bigger and more severe event, like talking blizzard potential, we need a stronger phase, a colder scenario and a much stronger surface low passing at the benchmark or just about 24 miles west of it.

This morning, I am going to share with you why a snow event is possible and not yet certain.... Why it is possible... NAO is in transition still positive but diving towards neutral slowing duration of the precipitation and storm's movement based upon phasing and capture potential at H5 PNA/EPO coupled ridging over the western CONUS could lead to an earlier phase potential as the northern stream disturbance is shoved southward across the Midwest and OH Valley regions allowing a cold infusion of air before the storm reaches our latitude. -AO transition, as the EPO/PNA ridge builds poleward and allows the northern stream to dig southward across the central US, this also builds into the western Arctic Circle and disrupts the Polar Vortex and the +AO domain and turns towards a -AO domain allowing the arctic jet to become involved in the weather next week producing another chance at a storm or two Again questions remain in the details and eventual A)/NAO domains, we will get help with that in the next 24 hours.

Signal is growing stronger for an inch at least of snow accumulations on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential. The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events. The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today. I could take the morning of the first flakes before we have an idea of the track of the storm. Stay tuned!

Long term pattern is shaping up to bring a parade of massive coastal super storms, at least the potential. A strong combination of a -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern is shaping up around Day 8 onward. Right now nothing is ever set in stone, but the potential exists for a weekend snow threat next weekend first weekend of February 2/3rd or Super Bowl Bomb party once again, like the Blizzards of the past. However, the Patriots will not be participants for the first time in four years. Enough with the sad news, the weather pattern evolving is enough to be satisfied for a temporary rain event this weekend. With the lack of true arctic air in place, we should be glad this storm is in land runner type with rain into Central New England. Otherwise, a mixed precip event would be quite devastating. However, I am confident in a storm happening next weekend, and perhaps a snow threat midweek this upcoming week. Still a ways to go...

lol, the instability is there, wind direction is there, fetch is there, we need freaking moisture, the dry air is killing it.

Strong Ocean Effect Snow bands developing over the Bay and east of the Cape Cod National Seashore. Convection is developing as instability at the surface increases through Delta Ts over 18C. Differential in temperatures between the 850mb level and the surface of the ocean. With a -15C 850mb temp and a sea surface temp around 8C, that combination should produce extreme instability with Delta Ts over 22C. Cold Cloud tops cooling suggests there is no real inversion layer and there is strong humidity levels between the surface and 700mb. Winds align through the column later this morning into the early afternoon. Not sure if accumulations can occur given the dry air at the surface.

We have radars down right now.

1.0" for Harwich, MA from yesterday's January 18th event. Total of 7.45" of snow total this YTD.

It appears at this moment that the next three snow threats fall on these dates or combination of dates: 15/16th, 18/19th and 20/21, almost every other day kind of succession pattern as the jet becomes quite active with multiple energetic systems in the flow. As you try and solve a puzzle, you try to fit the pieces in the area you believe it belongs looking at the picture it is supposed to be on the front of the box. Weather forecasting is the same basic idea. The difference and is a major difference is that that puzzle is constantly changing in every direction, every piece is changing, and every place that piece is supposed to be is changing. The weather is a puzzle in constant flux. The idea of weather systems is the transferring of heat from tropics to polar regions. A major storm develops along the boundary between extreme heat and extreme cold. It is meant to transfer that heat to the coldest reaches of the world. The world is constant balance, and needs to remain in this constant balance to sustain life and the human race and everything it encompasses. It is such a perfect design the weather makes no mistakes. However, since human error is a major problem in our lives and since it is all over the place, errors will always happen. We are not perfect. Avoiding going into a religious diatribe, I will go back to the next three events. Right now, the pattern appears to favor EPO ridging combining with the PNAP ridging present. With ridging potential in both locations, we could have a major push of cold air into the eastern 2/3rd of the CONUS in the 15/16th period. The pattern is in flux and there is hardly any agreement overall on the H5 pattern aloft. Some guidance suggests the pattern transitions from a +EPO/-PNA to a -EPO/+PNA then back and forth for these next three events. So it could be a snow event followed by rain event and then back to snow event for SNE. Right now, a lot can change even for an event in the next 72 hours. I will have more tomorrow evening. Unless something big changes.

Just to update the area, with another day tomorrow at least 10 degrees F above normal expect temps to drop throughout the week. Snow returns next weekend. Not until then, the threats for this week are rain at this point in SE New England.

With three inches yesterday morning, we are now up to 6.2" of snow on the season, our first major snowfall usually occurs late January, after the 20th.