jayyy

I think it’s the cold bias. For example, it’ll depict 0.6” of QPF as all snow with decent ratios, when in reality it’s more like 0.4” of 10:1 ratio or less snow and some potential mixing. It doesn’t do very well depicting mid levels

Hoping to see the GFS / UKMET both come in the same as 12z on their next runs. They’ve been the most consistent.

Because those cutoffs ever verify as depicted. No worries - it’ll be 30 miles north at least. It always is.

Thanks bud!

ICON and RDPS definitely shine a light on what I think is the biggest question mark. Central MD. Just the slightest difference brings much more significant precip to their doorstep. Going to be real close.

Have an image? I’m stuck working in the midst of the organized chaos that is the Apple store! Thx in advance!

This is what I’m saying. Central MD between DC/BAL is still a huge unknown IMO. Models vary from 0.3” to 0.8” in QPF. HUGE difference. 0z should hopefully bring a bit more clarify with some better sampling

Since when is Winchester well south of Baltimore. It’s almost the same exact latitude as Columbia

Alright, let’s get another solid GFS run in here at 18z to bring us back from the ledge.

If Models aren’t agreeing on some key elements of wave 1... how can they possibly be nailing wave 2? Agree. Think it’s going to be a wait and see situation. We may not know what’s coming with round 2 until round 1 has passed us by.

I don’t disagree about the northern cutoff and dry air eating away at precip. I just don’t see it being that far south. I can see me, ClSkins, and PSU getting fringed hard, Baltimore getting a bit over 0.5” in QPF, with more further south. Guess it’s possible though.

I really like a blend of what the GFS/UKMET depicted at 12z for the area. A foot of snow? No. But a solid 4-6+ for most of us.

100% guarantee things end up further north than what is being progged on the 18z NAM if the low takes the track depicted. The sharp cutoff will definitely happen somewhere, I just don’t see central MD (between DC and BAL) seeing such little precip. A low that rides into southern VA barely getting precip north of the VA MD border? Seems odd

48+ hours out from this part of the storm - heaviest snow 50 miles south.... sounds like exactly where we want to be right now honestly.

Looks like a ESE DC and SoMD jack - near 1” of liquid with QPF tapering to about 0.5” as you head toward Baltimore. Less further north.

not too shabby

I expect a bit of a last second correction with QPF on the north side of the storm as we get closer to the event. Not necessarily via the storm trending north... but I think the cutoff being depicted on the Euro for you folks located between DC and BAL is a bit exaggerated. GFS/UKMET may be onto something here. PSU is right... it will be a battle up in the far northern tier with a dry flow eating away from the north, but I think places like HoCo MoCo and Baltimore could certainly see solid QPF (~.7-.8) when all is said and done if the flow is even a LITTLE less overbearing up in PA. May be of nowcast type situation for folks between DC/BAL

That’s wild. It’s 40.5 here.

This won’t be a pixie dust type snow. Not in this setup.

Oh crud! For some reason I thought you said 17” a few days back, my apologies!

That’s not how it works and you know that. Having a -NAO/-AO doesn’t guarantee anything but the possibility of cold and blocking. PAC influence is huge, among a ton of other factors we talk about day to day. having a -AO & NAO certainly doesn’t mean we’ll hit climo BEFORE the snowiest month of the season even gets going. Some of it is just plain bad luck and things not working out in the moment by 10 or 20 miles in any given direction. PSU’s and my area are less than 10” from climo, as are many other areas besides 95 and points east. Columbia is at 11” for the season in early February... pretty decent versus the previous few seasons if you ask @WxUSAF, even if it’s been a bumpy, sometimes frustrating ride to get there.

We’re officially in the red!

Last storm I was glad I made the last second decision to stay put at my house due to the marginality of the event.... for this one, definitely still contemplating going a bit south to my brothers. W suburbs of DC/BAL appear to be a in a better spot for QPF with more than sufficient enough temps. UK backs this notion for sure. Shocker... another event where we are within 48 hours from start time and we are still seeing a 2-12” spread on the models

High pressure will wedge down along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians Wed with a CAD event expected to remain in place through the entire event Fri. Southern stream moisture and jet streak dynamics passing overhead Wed night will result in an expansive area of precip, mainly snow, Wed night into Fri morning. There have been some notable trends this morning, mainly to slow down the onset of precip Wed, and thus, to delay the end of it until midday Fri. The colder trend in temps profiles that started yesterday has basically stopped with basically all snow expected, except perhaps, mixed precip south of the I-64 corridor in central VA. The axis of highest QPF has also shifted south somewhat with guidance showing stronger higher precip building farther south. This appears to be a moderate to high QPF event with generally 0.5 inches liquid equivalent across northern MD to an inch south of I-66 in northern VA. Given the trend of slower onset of precip and impacts into the area until Wed night and after collaboration with neighboring offices to the west, it was decided to hold off of any watches at this time. However, confidence is high this will be a significant winter precip and long duration event (36-42 hrs in duration) with moderate impacts. For some areas, especially outside of the mtns and in southern areas, this will likely be the largest snow event this season so far. Great news for the DC/BAL corridor. LWX says this will likely be their biggest event of the season so far - inclined to agree here. Hoping you all cash in!

Arctic high pressure will remain wedged in along the eastern slopes of the Appalachains. Meanwhile, low pressure will be sliding by to our south. Wintry weather is expected to continue into Thursday. Still some uncertainty in regards to precipitation type for the duration of the event. Guidance overnight, which now includes the NAM, have started to trend cooler aloft, leading to a snowier solution across the region, especially the northern half. Do expect some mixing of sleet, snow, and freezing rain to occur across the southern half of the CWA. Will be tough, as usual, to pin point that mixing line at this point. This system continues into Friday morning as well, which will make this a fairly long-duration event. For the weekend, the pattern remains quite unsettled. An even colder arctic air mass will become wedged into the region Saturday, setting the stage for yet another winter weather event. First part of the day could be dry, though there is some spread there, so will maintain some chance POPs during the day. The bigger event comes late Saturday night into Sunday. Details are still fuzzy concerning temperatures aloft, thus not really sure of precip types at this point, but am growing increasingly confident in another winter storm. At this point, would certainly favor our northwestern zones, given climatology. However, plenty of time for things to change, so will continue to monitor in the coming days NWS also talking about nice accumulations. Gotta love these types of moisture feed events in our area. We historically do pretty well with them. Just need to fine tune a few details but 6+ seems quite likely for Wed into Thursday for most