jayyy

Actually one of the more reasonable maps I’ve seen. This is a Classic 2-5” type event with lollipop 6-7” for our area. Buckle up and enjoy my friends

What señor chill said.

Or... wait for it... a team of meteorologists who work for NWS didn’t hug trends on kuchera run snow maps and used a combination of knowledge of the setup, the overall track, and all of the other factors we discuss daily in here to make an informed decision on a forecast that’s meant to inform the public of what could be coming. If they downplayed this as a 1-3 event and we saw 6+“ in 6-10 hours, it would catch a ton of people off guard and cause harm. Let’s remember the actual point of warnings issued by LWX or any other NWS office.

100%. I actually think my brother down in Howard county will do better than me up here in Carroll county, but I don’t see places in SoMD doing better in a marginal event. Guess you never know though.

On grass and car tops? Probably all of it. On roads? Probably not much.

YUP!

Warnings and advisories issued. Watches remain up in areas of uncertainty it appears... Warnings: 3-6 Nova/dc through central MD 4-7 northern tier (Frederick Co on East - they included Baltimore city and all of Baltimore county) 5-10 for BR mountains WWA’s Winchester - Hagerstown for 2-4 Calvert/St. Mary's for 2-5

Definitely. 95 special looking a little more likely than at this point yesterday. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet! WINTER STORM Warnings just posted btw

Pretty damn solid for an EPS mean 24 out. Let’s do this! Hope to see things juice back up a bit at 6z, but a nice 3-6” event sounds great

Agree. Think the dc to Baltimore corridor and points in between are in for the goods here. Won’t be a foot, but it’ll be a great Sunday morning and afternoon.

Apologize for the size of the attachment. 24 hr max precip - latest SREF. Plops a 1.5-.75 max on Baltimore 12 hr max is pretty wild too .75+ for much of the area What a battle between the much wetter mesos and drier ensembles

models must have been meh based on the banter fest going on

Correct me if I’m wrong, @MillvilleWx (I really appreciate all of your insight) this storm is the perfect type to play to the biases of the GFS. It doesn’t really do well historically with quick hitting meso dependent storms that track through the far SE portion of the CWA. Feel like the NAM/RGEM etc and Mesos would be much more reliable inside 48 over an ensemble.

Looks like they solidified that 4-6” stripe. Mostly unchanged.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m impressed by how the ICON handled the evolution of this from the get.

Filthy. Plain filthy. Let’s GO!!!!

Yeah, I don’t. Unless reporting snow totals and OBS. during a storm bothers you. anyway.... let’s move on.

NAM looks like a strung out POS versus 12z and 18z

Just trying to protect that H2snOw bubble!

We northern folk have had pretty good luck up our way, just saying

Careful what you wish for m’dude

Woof. HoCo MoCo death band incoming!?

Probably the best map they’ve made within 48 hours all season. Suspect they will add a 6-8 inch stripe in Maryland at some point between now and Saturday, but since its so difficult to nail down specifics in these types of banding dependent storms, this is a good, safe call.

Sounds like this guy wrote up CWG’s forecast and wants answers.

Only when Richmond is disappointed