jayyy

Hoping we see a sub 60 hour steal like last Monday, but the windows rapidly closing.

100%. I said this last night. If we were jackpotting at this juncture, it would ultimately not turn out that way. The problem is, there’s no trend east really occurring.

Precisely. I meant more in the way of the outcome (snowfall totals) than timing

It’s not really going to be about latitude here. Our issue is how far west this storm comes, allowing an easterly wind to torch upper levels. You can be at the PA/MD border north of Baltimore or up in Philly or New York City and still see the same result as places further south than you along the same longitude. There is going to be an east to west snow gradient. Not the typical “as long as you’re further north” deal we have around these parts. Could very well see places like Manchester get 2-4” before a slopfest occurs as Emmitsburg or Hancock gets 6-12+, despite having a similar latitude. Could also see DC with more snow than Baltimore because of this. If this low indeed tracks over Baltimore or west, York & Lancaster PA will meet a similar fate as Baltimore.

If it’s the coldest and snowiest, then of course

We’re about to get NAM’d aren’t we

That 977 low well offshore would be SWEET

Agreed. Don’t think it’s a coincidence that models are beginning to shift east a bit at 500mb / H5 as upper air features begin to make their way onto the CONUS for better sampling. We need to see 12z take a meaningful step in our direction so that we can say this the start of a trend, and not just fine tuning a bit

The westward trend has stopped. If anything, we’ve seen a slight improvement at 500mb and a resulting tick east. Of course, a low running over the bay and to PHL still isn’t great, but it’s better than a low tracking over Hagerstown to Harrisburg. We need to see 12z and 0z tonight take a meaningful step east to keep the hope alive for a mainly snow event along the 95 corridor

GFS Ens Mean is awfully snowy for W NC into SW VA

Mmmhm

Random chaos, in other words.

Solid.

Maps or it didn’t happen!

If the models still look like this 00z Friday when the storm is onshore and we have a ton more data to sample, I’ll be much more concerned than I am now.

Actually think he’s going to end up being fairly correct. I still think we end up with a storm that hugs the coast. Not the perfect area-wide MECS+ setup / track, especially for the cities, but much better than what we’re seeing on the GFS right now. This setup reminds me of several storms we saw in the early to mid 2000s which rode the immediate coastline. Snow to mix along 95 with a change to rain east of the bay, and 80+% snow for NW zones before a sleetfest

See you at 00z Friday

Good news is we have 4 full days between now and the storm to iron some of the details out. We should have much better data to sample by 00z Friday

Awful. I jinxed the sh*t out of that run

Welp, that was deflating. We are about to enter the Euro’s 3-5 day mid range wheelhouse. Let’s see if it trends even better at 0z or if this far west track trend is legit

This p type map LOL

Oof. Wow. This thing drives NW.

There will be no SWVA to DC low on this run

Mmmhmm

500mb is south. As is h5.