jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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That 977 low well offshore would be SWEET
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Agreed. Don’t think it’s a coincidence that models are beginning to shift east a bit at 500mb / H5 as upper air features begin to make their way onto the CONUS for better sampling. We need to see 12z take a meaningful step in our direction so that we can say this the start of a trend, and not just fine tuning a bit
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The westward trend has stopped. If anything, we’ve seen a slight improvement at 500mb and a resulting tick east. Of course, a low running over the bay and to PHL still isn’t great, but it’s better than a low tracking over Hagerstown to Harrisburg. We need to see 12z and 0z tonight take a meaningful step east to keep the hope alive for a mainly snow event along the 95 corridor
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GFS Ens Mean is awfully snowy for W NC into SW VA
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Mmmhm
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Random chaos, in other words.
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Solid.
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Maps or it didn’t happen!
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If the models still look like this 00z Friday when the storm is onshore and we have a ton more data to sample, I’ll be much more concerned than I am now.
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Actually think he’s going to end up being fairly correct. I still think we end up with a storm that hugs the coast. Not the perfect area-wide MECS+ setup / track, especially for the cities, but much better than what we’re seeing on the GFS right now. This setup reminds me of several storms we saw in the early to mid 2000s which rode the immediate coastline. Snow to mix along 95 with a change to rain east of the bay, and 80+% snow for NW zones before a sleetfest
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See you at 00z Friday
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Good news is we have 4 full days between now and the storm to iron some of the details out. We should have much better data to sample by 00z Friday
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Awful. I jinxed the sh*t out of that run
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Welp, that was deflating. We are about to enter the Euro’s 3-5 day mid range wheelhouse. Let’s see if it trends even better at 0z or if this far west track trend is legit
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This p type map LOL
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Oof. Wow. This thing drives NW.
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There will be no SWVA to DC low on this run
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Mmmhmm
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500mb is south. As is h5.
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It’s coming my friend
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Give me the 0z ICONs 500mb setup with a SW somewhere along the coast and I’ll happily roll the dice in my neck of the woods
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Yep. Let’s get the trend started tonight with 0z with a slow but steady trend E over the next few days. Still plenty of ensemble members with great tracks and even some misses to the SE. Plenty of time for a consensus track in the middle to arise
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Would really like to see a clear trend east begin by 12z tomorrow or 0z
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Euro has similar temps. Don’t think it’s off base here. That southern Alabama low is intriguing
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Whoever is JUST west of the mix / snow line come storm day is going to be quite happy. This has great banding written all over it and the moisture feed is going to be profound upstairs. Some models printing 1-2” qpf. Just a matter of where that fall line sets up I’d honestly take a nice 4-6” thump before a dry slot or sleet bomb in a heart beat, but I’m certainly rooting for more.
