jayyy

We are roughly 60 hours out... correct me if I’m wrong, but 60 hours out from the previous storm, we were potentially expecting feet, not inches. Things went north rather quickly within 60. We don’t want that here. We are close. Not there yet, but things have most certainly trended in our direction. I’d rather OP runs look suppressed with an improving look upstairs conducive of a storm that can amplify / come north, than have a jackpot over our heads this far out. Be calm, my friends. We got this.

Ji won’t be satisfied until the jackpot is in his backyard.

Relax bud. If 12z tomorrow looks suppressed, we can begin to worry a bit. Think about where we were 24-36 hours ago.

Idk about that man. You’re in a prime spot for this one.

Agreed that the look at h5/500 actually improved quite a bit, despite the track further SE on the OP run. Have a feeling by the time this is all said and done, the 95 corridor will be the place to be. Will likely go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. PS - maybe Richmond won’t be disappointed after all

Sounds about right. Exactly why I dislike the model. Oh? It’s going to snow between 0-10”?! Tell me more SREF

SREF is another one of those “it’s good to have on our side but don’t rely on it” models. Doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t excite me. SREF’s are always snowy it seems. Gimme that 0z NAM’ing all day!!

Nope.

P09 please!

Perfect spot to be in 72+ out in this setup on the GFS. We know it’s trending WNW over the next 48

Yeah, except not all of that snow is snow. ICON doesn’t account for sleet / ice etc. definitely been super consistent with this one since day 1

Alright folks I’ll be back tonight! Here’s to a solid 18z!

Cold air will definitely not be as deep as we thought it would be for Sunday at this point a few days ago. However, a storm that tracks well to our SE will draw in cold NW winds. It will be close, but the PARA, NAM, euro and GEFS all kind of show you how we can overcome the marginal setup at the surface if things fall into place.

I do think this storm has a better shot at producing a regionwide snowfall (coast & inland) than the last storm, just not with the high totals. A widespread 2-4, lollipop 5-6” type storm could be in the cards if it all lined up. Better QPF near and east of 95, better ratios and dendrite growth up north... you know, the usual. The timing with precip falling mainly overnight / early AM and the arrival of cold air is beginning to look like it could work out just how we need it to. going to be an interesting next 24 hours of model watching. I’m off work at 730, so I look forward to reading everyone’s thoughts about the 18z suite. Speaking of which.... NAM should be out soon, no?

More like wishcasting for MBY.... this is a cut throat hobby my friend. No two ways about it. Either way the cookie crumbles, a bunch of people will be disappointed come Monday morning. Just a snow weenie hoping it’s not me is all. Nothing but love always.

Great news! Perhaps we get lucky and thread the needle with timing of cold / storm arrival. Hell, I’d love some decent ratios!

Well... if you really think about it... Richmond MAY be disappointed. Not sure yet

Typical ICON cold bias sadly. Also think ICON only shows rain/snow, not mix. I may be mistaken though.

Think a few days ago I would have disagreed. However, modes have definitely backed off the major cold and confluence in New England ahead of the system idea in a pretty significant way, allowing room for this to keep trending north - along with a better PAC look. Do think there is a ceiling for trending north however, as the trough won’t be that sharp. Don’t see this exiting the coast much north of OBX

Exactly what I’m thinking. A last second shift to a 2-5” thump never hurt nobody!

Inclined to agree. Think it does have a shot at being far enough north to cause problems for east of 95. Don’t see it going much further. Think those in Richmond who are getting excited to proceed with caution. Have a feeling they’ll be disappointed come Sunday

I was just busting your chops my friend inclined to agree, think our Richmond friends are going to be disappointed come Sunday

So, if it doesn’t amp, do you predict it goes south?

Yuuuuuge shift. NAM, GFS, GEFS Ukie and euro all made huge shifts in the past 24 hr. Haven’t seen models jump quite like that in a good while.

For sure. think it’s more than just the front location though. The systems also trending in our favor because models completely fell flat on their look of the PAC and the result that would have downstream. PAC heights are +20 in comparison to what models were forecasting a few days back. The look is far Less progressive than models thought even 36 hours ago. Frontal boundary looks to be in a better spot too. im by no means honking, but a region wide 2-4” event is looking much more likely. Next 24 hours will be very telling.