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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. Depends on the track of the low and placement of the high..
  2. COULD be a storm where reisterstown sees a foot and heavy snow while Brooklyn and Annapolis see a sloppy 6” if this thing nudges west over the next 48 hours. With that being said... h5 and CAD have been trending really nicely since 12z and I expect 00z euro to follow suit. The ideal storm for the setup we’re currently in falls right between the 00z GFS and the 00z CMC. I don’t want to get my hopes up too high just to get burned but DAMN, does it feel good to be tracking a major winter storm in mid December again.
  3. Unreal cutoff south of Baltimore showing up on almost every model. Difference of a foot over 50 miles. That has to be watched closely. NYC the Lower Hudson valley E PA and NNJ are going to get walloped by this. H5 cut off by AC - someone’s going to hit 30” up there. Feeling pretty confident that the area between myself, PSU, and clredskin is looking pretty darn good for at least 6” at this point.
  4. I like the call. 6-8” is a realistic call at this point. My folks who live 40 miles NW of nyc are in for 12+ easily - I’m a bit jealous.
  5. Helluva week to make a return! Looking decent for 6” or more area wide!
  6. Driving west on I 70 and there’s flakes Mixing with the rain in higher elevations west of Frederick. About 60/40 I’d say. Gosh darn it I’ll take mixed precipitation in this awful pattern lol
  7. 23 degrees here in Union bridge. That juicy band will be all snow for north DC Suburbs and Baltimore proper. Wouldn’t be surprised to see an inch or inch and a half up this way. 850 Temps will spike not long after noon.
  8. 1048 HP per 12z initializations. Roar. Feeling good about 2-3” before the changeover N&W of the big cities. Especially up here. Still think we get dryslotted before we see much rain. Seen this song and dance before.
  9. hopefully 0z tonight is a bit friendlier to us and trends back.
  10. Starting to look like warning level snowfall is possible for me PSUhoffman and my fellow northern tier friends I think it’s safe to say an ALL snow event is not happening, however we could still very easily see the low track in a manner where we see a solid 4-6” thump before we go to ice and are dryslotted. In fact, analogs for similar storms and setups at h5 point to the fact that that outcome is quite possible. We need the storm to dig and strengthen far enough south so its able to tap into an ample moisture source, but far enough north / weak enough to not pump a ton of warm air into our neck of the woods. A tight rope to walk, but we are seeing the overall trends we want to be seeing at this point to achieve just that Many are focusing on the stubborn CAD in place from a 1040 H to our north and how cold it'll be leading up. Rightfully so. However, remember that it is not surface temps that will determine when we change over to slop or rain. It can be 33 and heavily snowing, and it can be 19 out with sleet or freezing rain. What we need to worry about is the surge of warm air between the 700-900 levels. Going to be blunt here. Think there’s going to be a huge gradient in snowfall between DC and Baltimore. Points SE of DC may only see snow TV, while points NW of BAL see upwards of 6”. We will have a solid idea of where this boundary will setup by 00z Thursday. Until then, models will continue to waffle. Important that we stick to the trends and don’t jump off the ledge from run to run. Dissecting surface temp / QPF total specifics 3+’days out is a waste of time and energy. We’ll get into that in the short term. Let’s just keep rooting for the snowier trend to continue for now!
  11. GFS / Euro blend isn’t too shabby. Thankfully we have 4 days left of tracking
  12. Whatcha thinking bob? Think we can eek out a few solid inches in the Carrol - west HoCo - MoCo snowbelt Friday night before the transition? Trend has definitely been solid today. Hoping we have enough time for things to continue to trend in our direction. Have noticed the look at h5 and the SLP position have begun to trend in our direction on the euro/gfs/gefs edit - Newest euro definitely trended stronger, more north and therefor pumps the ridge more. Not a good look.
  13. Ah yes, threads jinx storms, and snow can’t stick when it’s “too warm the day before”. How could we forget these ancient winter storm proverbs!
  14. Hard to see through all of the fog on the models, but SLP positioning seems to be slowly improving and many models are trending toward keeping that 1030-1040 high in place longer. We definitely won’t see all snow, but don’t discount 2” (closer to 95) to 4” (usual cold spots near Westminster etc) of snow nw of the big cities before the transition Going to be harder to erode that airmass than models are depicting. Sadly we have no blocking in place to help us out, but we should see a solid few hours of flakes for sure.
  15. I lived 30 miles NW of NYC Along the Hudson River in ’06. 2/9/06 was an UNREAL storm. 20+‘degree temp drop and almost a foot of snow in mere hours. Insane.
  16. Try another 2-3 days. The GFS will show 4 very different solutions tomorrow from run to run. As it almost always does when the energy in question is nowhere near the CONUS for good model sampling. patience, young jedis!
  17. If you guys are basing your long term forecasts on 168+ hour GFS runs, you’re setting yourself up for failure. Relax guys. All it takes is one or two Features being out of place for that storm be a lakes cutter on models. Models have zero clue as to what’s going on Meteo knowledge and our climo say what will happen next weekend is Snow (how much still a huge question) to ice to rain with the usual colder spots up here near Westminster and points north holding onto a sloppy mix for a while longer than areas near 95, which will serve as the catalyst to a true wintry pattern. relax kids. Stop the cancel winter posts. Remember, with global warming, our winter is really February to April anyway LOL
  18. Dark Sky shows 4-8” for next Saturday, let’s just go with it and see what happens... what could go wrong LMAO
  19. That little extra elevation helped ya squeeze out an extra .75 or so! I averaged about 4” here in Union bridge. Had a few 4.5 measurements but discounted them against the other 7/8 consistent measurements.
  20. Solid haul. Looks like usual colder spots in N MD into S PA jackpotted I’ll take my 4 and run with it in this pattern.
  21. 4” total 12 miles WNW of Westminster my brother who lives on 108 in Columbia said about 2-2.5” not too shabby Considering half of the board was claiming it was too warm yesterday for snow to stick (debunked every single time) Elevation per usual played a role in how quickly the snow stuck. Didn’t take very long up here in Union bridge.. versus along the 95 corridor. glad we could sneak one out in a pretty horrendous pattern.
  22. Pouring snow out there. Sticking to everything except traveled roads. Beautiful scene
  23. Flakes flying! Here we go... just give me an inch or two out here in the colder climo and I’ll be happy
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