jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Bastards! hahaha
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That’s... not how that works. At all. You have that backwards. If it’s a super wet, dense snow, snowfall to QPF ratios are lower lol Cold temps + powder snow = higher ratios. Doubt we see powder. 12.1 for our latitude seems reasonable.
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30:1 ratios!? Sure. Same bro.
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That’s why you don’t use those maps to make any sort of meaningful forecast prediction. They are clown maps for a reason.
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3-5” as a baseline area wide is a great call. Zero shot it has any idea about meso/banding details however. @MillvilleWx and @csnavywx explained it best, but we’re going to have some big heartbreak awfully close by to the jackpot zones with this setup. 10” in one location could mean 4-5” a few miles down the road
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Looking better and better for us as the hours go on
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Who is we, Kimosabe?
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Hell no. I’m good on all that. RGEM is cursed until further notice
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We get a great 12z suite and NAM starts off the 18z suite with a nice hit and people are still finding something to whine about lol. Love you guys, but come on, we know this. Same song and dance every storm. The likelihood our entire CWA sees a warning level snowstorm — where everyone from the shoreline to PSUHoffman sees 6+ is almost 0%. It’s just not a thing that ever really occurs around here, especially not in a marginal setup. Let’s zone in folks. A Nice snowfall is heading our way!!
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Leaning toward staying here for sure - especially after we’ve seen a giant bump in QPF up here
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I’m waiting until 12z tomorrow to decide whether or not I spend this one up here in union bridge or down at my broski’s in Howard county. Going to be an interesting balance of better temps/ratios and lower QPF with higher QPF but more marginal temps. Think we could see 10-12:1 ratios up this way tbh. Also think we actually have a better shot at that meso mauling being further north but those details will get ironed out in the next 24 hopefully.
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GFS looked great. Don’t worry about clown maps / QPF, this is a MESO model storm for details through and through. Especially with all of that 700mb frontogenesis action going on. That 12z gfs setup means good snow for almost all of us. Ukie also looked good - and probably too dry versus the actual outcome of a storm that evolved in such a manner. Very exciting trends going on. Maybe my house is safe up here after all.
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That orange blob over my house can stay right there
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You think it’ll go north? You don’t say - you’ve said it 30 times since yesterday.
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For sure. Way too much volatility with this to confidently issue until then at least
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It’s nice to see the RGEM and hi res NAM looking very similar within 48.
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NAM’d!!!! Let’s go!!!
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I may very well be going down to see my brother in HoCo for this one. Seems to be a solid spot to be. Far enough north for good temps and far enough south to get in on some of the goods
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So.. you’re saying we shouldn’t live and die by digital snow maps? Hehe
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Why not? A very legit meteorologist just explained 1 page back why this very well could be 8-10:1 ratios... and maybe along the Maryland coast ratios will be lower, but they could easily be 10:1 out this way.
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
jayyy replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Dark sky is forecasting 4-7” for next Friday. BOOK IT Seriously though... intrigued by the prospects of the next week or two -
That was a hell of a move north. I’ll take 5” (don’t you dare say it)
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That’s a solid trend ^^. PLENTY of room to improve with 60 to go. Hope to wake up to good news! Goodnight my friends
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Appreciate the insight, as always @psuhoffman. I’ll take a sizable trend in our direction 60 hours out and call it a win. If this season has taught our region anything, it’s that a storm will absolutely not do what models are showing at 60. Plenty of time. Ill be worried if the cmc looks the same at 12z tomorrow
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Patiently waiting for @psuhoffman to drop the good news about the CMC’s improved look
