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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    Sorry mappy! Just refreshed my browser at work for the latest. Didn’t notice. My apologies.
  2. jayyy
    NAM led the way with the last storm - no reason to believe it isn’t doing the same here. Just a little weary of being 72+ hours out and it not quite being in the NAM’s wheelhouse yet. Encouraging trends today all around. Great to see models moving toward the NAM and not Vice versa. Hug the NAM and NAVGAP and pray!
  3. jayyy
    Incoming on the euro! Definitely a WAY better look.
  4. jayyy
    Perfectly fine for the GFS actually. Doing it’s typical thang being too progressive . If the GFS keeps showing a near miss SE and the NAM stays / euro jumps on the snow train, it’s game on.
  5. jayyy
    Looks awfully similar to evolution on the NAM. Definitely wouldn’t rely on this model solely, but sure, let’s add it to the ole arsenal of models showing snow - can’t hurt.
  6. jayyy
    Because... “SoMD”
  7. jayyy
    NAM reacted to the look of the PAC it appears. Models the past 3-4 days weren’t close with forecasting heights out there. Still also think models had zero clue what to do with that giant storm stalled out in the Atlantic for half a week.
  8. jayyy
    BOOM
  9. jayyy
    little too far out to trust a hi-res model
  10. jayyy
    Think the 95 crew likely has the best shot here at getting precip heavy enough to overcome the borderline column. Wouldn’t mind seeing the Precip timing shift to overnight for sure
  11. jayyy
    Models always need a little time to adjust after a big storm has exited stage right to get a grasp on the 500mb setup moving forward. Nothing about this setup screams suppression for Sunday anymore.
  12. jayyy
    The trend toward a more amplified solution has officially begun. Said this like 4 days ago, but a nice little 1-4” type storm is the most likely outcome this Sunday if it does hit. Timing of precip also shifting a bit in our favor for colder temps. If this is a daytime storm, we’re likely in trouble.
  13. jayyy
    Perfectly ok with a 2-4 3-6 type storm to kick off this ripe February pattern
  14. jayyy
    0z Euro may be telling as to whether or not it’ll be the one caving, or Vice versa.
  15. jayyy
    I’m just sitting here in complete awe that flakes are still falling from this storm. Same band of light snow with occasional bursts remains overhead. Great way to end the night and storm. Can confidently say we ended with over 11” here. Goodnight all.
  16. jayyy
    Actually pretty encouraged by trend on the GEFS. not going to stay up for it, but curious to see what 0z euro has to say
  17. jayyy
    another foot for NYC you say?
  18. jayyy
    Suspect the GFS will still be squashed south.... but it would be nice to see it begin to at least hint a north solution is possible at h5/500mb. We’re about 5 days out
  19. jayyy
    Still going here. Somehow?
  20. jayyy
    Snowing nicely now here in UB. I imagine it’ll swing your way
  21. jayyy
    My brother is reporting SN in Ellicott city. Seems to match radar with that band overhead. One last hoorah for that area it appears
  22. jayyy
    Flakes should begin flying east of 29 within the half hour
  23. jayyy
    You can tell the low is beginning to move ever so slowly east. In the very last frame of the regional radar, the snow bands streaming north to south begin to have an easterly movement to them. Should be expected that these bands and showers will pull east toward the bay as the dynamics shift east with the storm.
  24. jayyy
    This upcoming pattern is the type in which models may not sniff out potential overrunning events until 3/4 days out. Lots of cold air to deal with, a nice block, and an active jet... now we wait for it all to line up. I do think we can sneak a few 1-3 and 2-4 type events in there between bigger threats between now and late February. Patterns ripe for snow.
  25. jayyy
    You should probably leave the obs thread if you’re gonna throw a pity party each time someone posts a snow obs lol i know it stings my friend. Next ones yours.
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