jayyy

If it snows 5” 30 miles south of Dc.. there are no words.

Doesn’t look all that surprising to me based on the overall look here. The high pressures are great and all, and will keep the surface very cold - but if you look at 850s, that low track screams southerly winds into the mid levels. There’s not enough confluence up north to overcome that as depicted.

I hear that. I think there will be a lot of ice up in these parts. Next Tuesday may be our best shot at a mostly snow event, but I have a feeling we are in for a dangerous amount of ice come Sunday morning and again at the end of next week. Of course climo is more favorable here, but as you said, h5 doesn’t look great and it’ll take a lot of needle threading to get a significant snowfall - even up this way.

At least you won’t lose tons of sleep tracking them! Ice storms always seem to be the ones that pan out nearly verbatim from a week away.... 6-12+“ snowfall depictions? Not so much

Definitely much better. Give us that primary low at the KY/VA border transferring to that southern most 1005mb low and were in business that sub 100mb low near Erie PA can eat my shorts and get on outta here. That would annihilate our mid levels

Looks like forecasted highs were fairly spot on up this way. I’m at 31 currently. Does look like temps will bust a little low closer to the cities however

Yup. Just as all of those random blobs of snow in the midst of the freezing rain VA will pan out verbatim

prepping for an obligatory deck pic tonight!

If I get 20 flakes tonight, I consider that a win. That would mark the 6th day out of the last 10 or so where wintry weather has occurred. Some snow tv sounds good to me.

I was up until 3 AM with the HoCo-Baltimore crew last night basking in all of their glory. I DM with people from all over the sub forum - Baltimore, DC, etc and discuss impending storms and I rarely focus on my own BY when I discuss things. I spend a good amount of time talking about central MD, VA, and other areas as well. I can’t count how many times I posted in the past few days about how Baltimore and that general area was being under forecasted and how I thought @WxUSAF was going to do well. I’m actually far less IMBY CENTRIC than most in here You’re not new here. you know this hobby is cut throat - and literally everyone in here is somewhat “IMBY-centric” outside of the Mets who post here - which is perfectly fine. My opinion on any given storm has literally nothing to do with union bridge. I’ve been out of this second wave for days now. I’m most certainly rooting for the southern part of the forum to cash in. Doesn’t mean I’m going to spew wishcasting nonsense. Do I hope it pans out for DC and Richmond? Yes. Absolutely. I’m just not incredibly optimistic about that based on what we saw last night is all. How much snow I personally get is irrelevant to how I analyze what I’m seeing in front of me. I could very well be wrong, but please let’s not spew that nonsense. You clearly don’t know me.

I will say though... we seem to do way better in the DMV region when NWS airs on the side of caution and goes with low #s versus when they go for the warning - 75% of which get cancelled. Reverse psychology perhaps

Nice!!! Glad to see the euro on board. That’s definitely a good model to have on your side if there’s not much else going for you . I’ve been at work all morning and didn’t get to see much other than the UK NAM and GFS which didn’t look terribly hot. That’s good news! Definitely rooting for you all down there - this wave certainly is not for my neck of the kids (got 5.75” last night and am more than happy to share the wealth), I’m just extremely skeptical given the temp issues in NoVA DC and SoMD last night (sleeted almost all night in Winchester) that Richmond sees 4-5”. Anything can happen though! Never thought I’d see Baltimore out-snow PSU and CLskins during a marginal event but alas, they did last night.

The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress. Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me. I guess things could shift last second and this turns into a now cast type situation.... but idk man This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Friday Night A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. Saturday Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress. Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me. NWS appears to agree... guess we never know though. Could be a nowcast type deal This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Friday Night A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. Saturday Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Agreed. I’d argue that at least 60% of folks base their expectations off 10:1 or kuchera clown maps from 4+ days out and do little to no further digging into what models are showing at h5, 500 mb, 850, etc. Nor do they follow basic trendlines. Many folks live and die off of losing or gaining digital snow, which is the same as literally getting on your knees and begging the snow gods to be disappointed. If people’s attitude toward storms is “well, so and so model showed MBY getting 18” a week ago, and I only got 5”, so this is a huge bust”, then yeah, sure. models are awful. But that’s not how meteorology works and that’s not how you analyze a weather model. Each model has its own biases and some models are better than others in a given situation. That’s why you’ll see LWX sometimes go with the storm track of the euro, but the thermal profile of the NAM. They understand how these models differ and correlate and how to best use / blend them based on their individual strengths and weaknesses The euro has actually been quite good actually this winter if you compare what it shows 3-5 out versus reality. NAM has also done quite well within 48 hours. Did DC get rain/slop versus a few inches of snow? Yes. But that’s what we use mesos for. The NAM showed that possibility and it came to fruition. Even Winchester mainly sleeted last night. It sniffed out that warm nose due to its higher resolution versus an ensemble like the Euro. That’s why NWS and other Mets consider multiple guidances when making an informed decision. Models rarely get it right from start to finish, but they grasp the overall idea and narrow the storm down into a 20-50 mile window. That’s pretty damn impressive. Combine those great tools with basic a understanding of meteorology and the climo IYBY, people will find themselves far less disappointed. There is a reason @Bob Chill doesn’t obsess over storms until the threat is within 3-5 days. It’s the logical thing to do when it comes to something like the weather, which can change on a dime.

Euro isn’t a day away type of model though. It’s an ensemble. It’s the “mid range king” 3-5 out

“Wave 2” is dying a slow death on models. Wonder how DT is feeling looking at guidance this AM. He get rid of his 10” in Richmond idea yet

I was waiting to hear how it went up by you. I was noticing that the bands in my area and in Baltimore proper were robbing lift from your area and northern Baltimore county during the height of things. Not a bad snow pack builder though!

Tuesday looks like it may be ripe for people west, and perhaps even along 95 - north of DC. Trends looks really good with 3+ days to go. I’m actually quite excited for that one up this way.

Verified the 4-8” warning with 5.75”. Didn’t quite hit 6” like I thought. I’m at 670ft elevation

Think these next two bands will do the trick for you. If that band over Hagerstown continues its current path and doesn’t fall apart, it should get you over the top.

Another band incoming for folks from Germantown over to Columbia, as well as another (stronger ) band in its footsteps, headed SE from Hagerstown. Both bands should affect C MD over the next hour or two.

Good point. That’s very true. Models have showed cutters in the long range all winter long just to move them 500+ miles East come storm time 1-2 weeks later. Next 2-3 weeks should be fun around these parts. Seriously can’t complain about tracking 6-7-8 potential winter events over a 2 week span in a niña winter. Dc proper has just had horrific luck with temps in what has been an otherwise awesome pattern. Any winter that produces climo totals IMBY by February 11th over 5+ storms is pretty solid in my book. All this winter is missing for our area is the elusive region wide biggie.

Next Tuesday could end up east enough for you guys to cash in on a biggie. If not then, there is a long range threat being honked by GFS/EPS around the 24th/25th (after a big lakes cutter reloads the pattern next weekend ) This threat appears to be a strong Miller A with ample cold air around - which could be major snowstorm for 90+% of this forum. Obviously we are WAY too far out to be talking specifics about it, but the overall pattern around that time looks ripe. MJO will be phase 8, -NAO will be freshly reloaded with a nicely placed ridge out west. Lots of time for things to change clearly, but the threat potential looks to go out at least another 2 weeks (outside of a brief few day warm up as the pattern reloads late next week)

I think we have a decent shot at some solid snow on Tuesday, especially in our neck of the woods, with a few more adjustments East over the next 3-4 days. The threat certainly looks better on the 6z GFS/Euro than it did yesterday. Let’s see if a trend continues moving forward