jayyy

We know for a fact that models have performed very poorly outside of 7-10 days. The warm bias in the east by models 10+ days out has been off the charts for nearly 5 months now. A big western trough keeps getting forecasted, pumping heights to the east, we “torch”.. blah blah blah… it never materializes or ends up being very short lived. Temps have been well below normal all fall and winter. We are bound to see some moderation from time to time. Why you live and die by 240+ hour digital blue on OP runs knowing even ensembles can barely handle anything outside of 168 hours right now seems like a super stressful way to go about this hobby. The upcoming pattern isn’t going to have a big storm sniffed out by models 1-2 weeks out. It’s literally useless cliff diving this far out. Much more likely to see something pop up in the mid range (5-6 days) than you are to find a fantasy storm that models lock in on 1-2 weeks out

Exactly what I had in mind

Bingo. Give me a -EPO with some blocking and a flattish pna. Nice gradient type pattern with waves ejecting across the south into an established cold dome. The bob chill bowl / train tracks pattern. Much rather that than have both a roided EPO ridge and a spiked PNA. Simple overrunning setups work around these parts. They haven’t come very often over the past decade, but when they do.. they produce

SWS issued by NWS. 30% chance

Let the weenies suffer

Hell yes. I went to college at the university at buffalo. I very frequently LES band chased to the southtowns. So worth it. Dated a girl who went to Oswego. I’d go out there too when I could swing it. No shame in my snow chase game

Ji-bus answered your prayers

Super excited for your “0z took 18” away from me” post in 5 hours

Someone call the rock! The GFS just laid the smack down it’ll be a near miss by 0z and back again tomorrow and models will show 55 different iterations of this storm between now and the 9th. The board not having a meltdown over that 10 days out would be awesome. Or keep it in the panic room at least. For fuck sake lol

Could be worse.. everyone could be looking at 384 hr maps [emoji1787]

That’s a FOLKS!! Day 7-10 window is heating up!

Starting to feel like we won’t have to wait too much longer. The day 7-10 window is starting to peak my interest for a legit threat. The dominos start to fall in the coming days as the NAO retrogrades.

It’s like people haven’t lived here their entire lives and aren’t aware that we pretty much never get wall to wall cold and snow lol. Oh no… two weeks of transient weather before a pattern shift… how awful [emoji1787] Switching over to a solid pattern from mid January through early February is about as perfect timing as it gets.

Can’t take away what we never had bud. Wild that you live and die off these 300 hour clown maps each day. Must be stressful

Legit upper air pattern incoming and a bunch of chances to track. That’s really all we should be taking from models this far out. Specifics of a given threat is pointless at this range. If models hold this look for the next week, we have reason to get excited.

Some sweet pics from earlier tonight

Definitely a warmer layer models missed around New York. Buddy of mine who lives in Rockland county just north of New York was reporting 24 degrees and sleet for a while. Back to snow now. 18 & heavy snow in the elevations of Orange County!

Sounds like a niña

Snowing heavy up this way It just doesn’t feel the same as when I’m home though and I get to enjoy it with yall on here.

Best part about going to see my folks for Christmas is not having to make an extra trip to chase snow. 5-10” expected up here through tomorrow My daughter’s at home and said it’s on and off again sleeting / raining in union bridge.

“I’ll take the under on it being 70 degrees on Christmas” - me to Ji a week ago Forecasted high of 46 on Christmas and a chance of wintry mix the day after with a high of 37 So much for a torch. Models look to be converging on the idea of possible winter revival by 1/5.. but we’ll see how that all looks a few days from now. One thing is for sure - models are struggling past D10. Just have to be patient and see how things unfold this winter. Posting “weeklies” and 384hr OP runs every 6 hours is pointless. Save yourself the headache.

That’s not just a cold shot though. That’s a 500mb map with a clear trend toward a stronger, more west based ridge (+PNA) and a trough forming in the east. Block is establishing etc. That being said… still very far out so it’ll change 50x. Grain of salt yada yada

Agreed. A hostile PAC can be temporarily overcome by a great block anchoring in a high pressure to our north and pushing a low to our south. Won’t be the type of pattern where snow has staying power but a well timed wave could still absolutely produce and possibly produce big if just right. Cards on the table for the 12/31-1/3 timeframe but we’ll see

A couple of weeks of normal to slightly above normal temps and the winter is over speculation has already started. Mid season form, folks. Mid season form. Relax, y’all.

Why? Because one run of the GFS 240+ hours out said so?