jayyy

Going to take the under on the likelihood we see a 6-8” thump before we jump to 50 degrees in march.

This week? Or this winter?

For sure. IMBY sport, of course. I’m not in the metros.

Amounts vary a bit each run, but it has had the same general 2-4” idea for the area since 6z with a very similar snow shield. Would be nice to see something other than the GFS show this though lol

If we can’t get cold enough anymore in any niño regime, our snowfall would cliff-dive over the coming decades. But I also think it’s more complex than that. We just went through a LONG stretch having a +NAO dominated pattern coupled with a VERY hostile -PDO. We haven’t really had a true test of the “old days” since our last blockbuster season (2015). We have either had no blocking, a terrible PAC (thanks -PDO), etc. The beaches and everywhere north and south of us keep getting smacked, which is how we know it can still snow and snow a lot here. We’ve been insanely unlucky. I know, we’ve snowed in the past during -PDO regimes and +NAO regimes, but we’ve also seen our fair share of shoutouts too. Last year we JUST missed a huge storm. Two more this year. It’s almost like the snow gods are punishing us after the insane luck we had the decade prior to 16-26. Idk. I’m no meteorologist or climatologist, but I’d bet the house that we have another blockbuster year sooner than later.

00z was trash I assume lol

Thats what I meant! Hopefully it’s *not* east based. Thanks for the correction sir

That’s because we oversimplify everything to Niña versus niño. Strength and location matter. As do other factors like the PDO. Idk why some folks think every niño is an auto W and every Niña is a ratter. We’ve had great and horrific winters in both ENSO states. Early indications are that next year will likely be a niño. Hopefully it’s not east based. Otherwise it could be another downer season. Niño is def preferred over Niña historically, but it’s no guarantee

Yeah. I usually goff at this notion… but models probably do need to clear this current massive storm to get a grip. They’re all over the fuckin’ place

That’s how you know it’s highly unlikely lol.

It wasnt tucked at all lol

Just has to hold for 250 more hours til start time

Almost as fun as every time you make a post.

Maybe models need the cat 2 hurricane to clear the coast before getting a grip lol

Surrounding spotter reports and my eyeballs say at least 2 feet. Drifting makes it impossible to tell, as wind gusts hit over 60mph last night. Still snowing nicely too. 30+ reports in Rhode Island and eastern Long Island. Someone in RI will hit 40”. Reports of 5-6” per hour under that band One day it will be our areas turn again. Hopefully. Incredible storm. It’s just not as sweet when it’s not IMBY and I can’t share it with my fellow degenerates

That’s what she said

Ground zero from ocean county NJ to eastern Long Island. I’m not going anywhere til Wed at least lol. Islip LI is likely going to surpass 30” shortly. Wild

4z HRRR. More to come. I was trying nap and was woken up by thundersnow. 0% shot I’m sleeping now if this is even 60-70% correct up this way

Yep. A 20” report will likely pop up somewhere in central to NE DE area. Expecting 24+ reports all over the place up this way by tomorrow afternoon. Just crazy. Gonna take a power nap and wake back up around 2-3a

Lightning strikes indeed @dailylurker

11.5” report just to my south in Lakewood. Unreal conditions since 7pm. Almost all of it has fallen since then. Enjoy!

There’s no primary low in the Tennessee / OHV with coastal redevelopment. We didn’t get “skipped over”. Things just developed too far east and the best dynamics were ENE of the area. It happens. A lot. CAPE talks about these coastal scrapers pretty regularly every niña winter season. This was more of a hybrid situation. Also, semantics. It doesn’t matter lol

Chase the damn thing when possible! 2-3” per hour easily in some of these bands. Mashed fuckin’ potatoes

Looks like the storm is finally being captured. Rotation should be in full effect for sure. C NJ to Boston east of 95 is about to have an insane next 12 hours.

Confirmed. These bands pivoting in off the Atlantic into S NYC AND the NJ hook are prime. I chased up to the Jersey coast just south of Staten Island. Double digits are imminient