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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    If anyone wants to know why those CIPS analogs don’t hold much water the top current analogs in order are 12/14/03 12/05/03 12/25/02 01/26/11 01/03/03 12/05/02. Of that bunch none really resemble this. You can probably combine 12/14/03 and 01/26/11 and get something that has some similarities to this but not great
  2. SnowGoose69
    Someone can sell me on a 700 low in this setup doing that, not the surface low.
  3. SnowGoose69
    The GFS almost always consistently does this with these events though, it’s just consistently wrong . The Euro has probably been the most consistent of all minus that wild 06Z run it had last night
  4. SnowGoose69
    I don't have upper or mids yet but the 06Z panel Thu AM from the Euro sure looks like mixing must get real close...it seems juicier in the 06-12Z panel this run than the 12Z run was
  5. SnowGoose69
    No it starts running about 645pm
  6. SnowGoose69
    They have really been in the sweet spot in recent years with some storms which contributed to that but a few times I thought their final total seemed too high.
  7. SnowGoose69
    Nobody north of Sandy Hook is probably changing to rain with this other than maybe far ERN LI. Sleet or dry slotting is the risk
  8. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is ALWAYS overamped in the 40 plus hour range...or nearly always. The NAM has no real persistent bias. I just look for consistency from run to run to see if its onto something. So far it has not been extremely consistent though it has not pulled the sometimes NAM windshield wiper effect at least. I've used a ECMWF/CMC/GFS blend so far and gone 9-11 at LGA and 8-10 at JFK with a chance of sleet 04-09Z.
  9. SnowGoose69
    Well not always. It did that on 1/22/87
  10. SnowGoose69
    If you look at the 700 temps/low even the 12Z ECMWF is darn close for a period near JFK/SI. The system is still a hybrid Miller B scenario to an extent so the lows mature a nose close to being too late where the 700 low is displaced. Verbatim a shift of 30 miles south on the 12Z Euro is ideal for NYC itself for sure
  11. SnowGoose69
    Not yet. I can only access the rapid version until about 2 which comes in as 6 hour increments
  12. SnowGoose69
    I don't think so because I believe it snow maps count sleet as snow so it probably thinks surface temps are over 32 or something
  13. SnowGoose69
    One note with this event is looking at the forecast soundings in advance of it there is not an excessive amount of mid-level dry air so this sucker will precipitate fast vs having a 2/2003 virga like period.
  14. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is basically a 30 mile difference from the NAM and ICON. Everything pushes east just a tad earlier.
  15. SnowGoose69
    That track would be okay in a true Miller A but this is sort of a hybrid with the surface low maturing later and further north which is why the 700-850 low tracks are further north and west. If this developed 100 miles south we could tug the surface low in tighter up here and have no issue
  16. SnowGoose69
    NYC itself and nearby generally needs a system to be stacked from the surface to 500 to see a rain changing to snow event. Otherwise the system simply will be exiting too quickly to northeast or east. The Christmas 2002 event was missed by just about all models. The GFS was the only one which showed it consistently but at the time the GFS was 2 months old as far as its rebrand and merge with the AVN/MRF and NCEP/NWS offices were very skeptical of its solution. The 00Z ETA bit on the idea on 12/25 but the 06-12Z runs came out and moved away from it. At the point the Upton office dropped the WSW they had issued for NYC earlier that morning around 2am
  17. SnowGoose69
    Probably 3-4pm. As always though in a setup like this with a nearly north moving system with a strong high over Canada the start time could be a few hours earlier than it looks at this range
  18. SnowGoose69
    Yeah the NAM QPF depictions that run were very disjointed and ugly
  19. SnowGoose69
    Also a different setup. I believe it was a Miller B as was Nemo. I don’t recall a case with this good of a 50/50 and high with a semi Miller A type setup where places west of Suffolk county saw long duration changeover and then went back to snow
  20. SnowGoose69
    The 700/850 lows may not be stacked though so they could be further north of the surface low. I would still think sleet or mixing is more likely over SE NJ or central or eastern LI. Taking it west of there in this setup really seems tough
  21. SnowGoose69
    Yes. Or go to rain or sleet and stay as rain or sleet. The flip back just doesn’t occur practically ever. December 2002 was a case where it did that but the setup wasn’t anywhere near this good or really close overall in the pattern
  22. SnowGoose69
    The key with the NAM as I said yesterday is consistency. If the next two runs show almost the same solution as the 06z you can trust it’s onto something. If it waffles 75 miles southeast again this run you can more or less ignore the NAM til inside 36. The NAM sometimes gets these things right at 60 but the dead giveaway of that is run to run consistency which is very rare by the NAM at that range otherwise.
  23. SnowGoose69
    That’s probably the only thing that matters at this stage. I don’t see anything substantial shifting with the block or the high. If the shortwave is stronger than expected it could be able to cut more north. I’m still wary here because historically with this sort of pattern in place at 500/surface we’ve never seen a storm like this cause the metro to go snow-Sleet or rain-back go snow. Never in the last 40 years
  24. SnowGoose69
    With lighter winds I would think this event could be 15:1 area wide but it’ll probably end up 10:1 everywhere. I guess inland maybe they get 12:1 due to frictional effects maybe giving them less wind
  25. SnowGoose69
    I think it’s just the snow maps algorithm. The model would indicate Long Island sees way more snow than that
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