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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    This will likely be the biggest event of the winter I think. I still expect La Niña background state eventually takes over. It might not be til late January but I expect the majority of snow this winter still falls before 1/20
  2. SnowGoose69
    The biggest change from 18-24 hours ago is that for places like N Queens Bronx Manhattan models are colder and if any sleet or rain does occur it’s probably not til 06Z where as 02-04Z was more possible earlier. Similar changes have happened for south Queens/LI where the changeover is now probably 05Z (maybe 04) but it seems more rainy or dry slotty now vs sleet(3km NAM says otherwise). I am more confident saying 8-12 at LGA now and probably 7-10 at JFK. I wouldn’t be shocked either way if the mix line overachieved and still made it to LGA and a tad beyond or if it never even made it to Long Island. After all, those two scenarios involve maybe a 20 mile difference in the end
  3. SnowGoose69
    The HDRDPS now doesn’t show sleet either. Just flips area to light rain or dry slot at 06z
  4. SnowGoose69
    7pm
  5. SnowGoose69
    The GFS has slowly come around to an extent on the idea 02-07Z near NYC is dicey on ptype. This run just about has rain at JFK for a brief period
  6. SnowGoose69
    The dry nose from 5-10K is pretty significant. I could see that causing the first couple of hours to be slow to get going.
  7. SnowGoose69
    The NAM BUFKIT soundings which is the 12K show about 12 at LGA and 13 at JFK but there’s no question the QPF could be overdone and also 2 or 3 of the hours show snow but are isothermal 0 and will likely verify 1-2C warmer so to me the ceiling is still 9-10 at LGA and 7-9 at JFK
  8. SnowGoose69
    That RGEM map looks to have 5 for JFK and 13-14 for LGA. That’s quite a gradient lol
  9. SnowGoose69
    One thing to watch tomorrow is if the 3km NAM idea of that snow shield hitting a wall near Sandy Hook and not really making it into the area til 23Z is correct. There is a decent dry zone 5-7,000 feet but the air mass itself isn’t exactly a bone dry one overall and winds are more 050-060 in the lower levels vs 010-030.
  10. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR is almost always too cold at long range
  11. SnowGoose69
    I was in Fort Lauderdale for it. I finally remembered that
  12. SnowGoose69
    No. 1/7/94 there were some places on the very far north shore that got like 5 inches of snow while the south shore was FZRA all day but that’s closest example I know
  13. SnowGoose69
    Yeah something is just off. The whole transition occurs far enough south you’d think this thing would be more or less “stacked” or at least relatively close to aligned. But the 700 is displaced by a big margin IMO compared to what would normally be seen. The whole forecast is toast if that doesn’t transpire for many who cut down below 10 inches
  14. SnowGoose69
    This is partly why I wonder if the models aren’t handing the mid level lows correctly. I’ve been bothered all along by the fact there is such disjointed nature between the surface and mid level lows with this. If that ends up happening the GFS will end up correct for the wrong reason
  15. SnowGoose69
    The Euro had been most south with that part of the storm but the 18Z run definitely ticked north with it
  16. SnowGoose69
    I don't see a huge change in the 18Z Euro...it may be a tad faster if anything. Seems maybe a nose north on the 12Z Thu AM panel
  17. SnowGoose69
    I tried finding a specific storm which was similar to this. None since 1980 came up. Its not a true SWFE where we flip to sleet or rain. It has similarities to 2/13/14 for sure but also other storms. 12/14/03 is still the top analog on CIPS but this setup at 500 is way different
  18. SnowGoose69
    These maps show you the Euro WB snow maps are likely wrong for say JFK for example. Likely counting sleet so I'm sure reality Euro has only 5-7 at JFK. Those real accurate Euro snow maps from ECMWF usually get shared illegally somewhere but I have not seen them yet today. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2020121512&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2020121512&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
  19. SnowGoose69
    The one similarity between the RGEM and GFS (especially the HRDPS) is that they both want to go just snow or rain and not so much have the period of sleet
  20. SnowGoose69
    The Euro map probably includes sleet so those totals across LI/metro are probably lower.
  21. SnowGoose69
    Its not even close either. Normally the GFS would be like isothermal 0 or -1C and you just figure its under compensation for mid level WAA. Its like -5C lol
  22. SnowGoose69
    I think the GFS as far as areas down by NYC/coastal SNE not changing precip over is a result of the unusual nature of the setup where the surface low basically passes SE of everyone with a strong high to the north but the 700/850 lows are displaced NW. Usually the GFS will torch the BL in this type of scenario and show rain but because of that high pressure it is not even doing that so its more wrong than it even normally would be
  23. SnowGoose69
    The GFS is basically operating like a model in 1985 or 1990. Its not seeing the mid-level warmth that would happen despite the mid level low tracks. Normally the GFS nowadays compensates by showing rain but its likely being confused by the strong surface high to the north.
  24. SnowGoose69
    The fact the GFS tracks the 700 low west and doesn't show sleet anywhere is just baffling
  25. SnowGoose69
    I expect the GFS will cave either this run or next at 00z
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