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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    .14 liquid at PHL so probably about 1.5 last hour
  2. SnowGoose69
    Like BOS PHL does not measure snow at the airport so we won't get hourly increments there. Might have gotten 2-3 this hour
  3. SnowGoose69
    As of 21Z the 12Z HDRPS is most accurate in MD with transition. HRRR is improving but still lags. 3km NAM barring an insane jump next hour will bust severely on its 22Z position of the change in PA
  4. SnowGoose69
    This delay from south to north shore is like the PDII storm where JFK snowed for 3-4 hours before LGA, albeit not as extreme
  5. SnowGoose69
    3km NAM continues to show a potentially bogus solution changing EWR/JFK to sleet at 01z. All the way to LGA and White Plains by 02Z then it miraculously falls back below Staten Island again. both of those won't happen. Either it changes at 01Z and never goes back or it doesnt change til 05-06
  6. SnowGoose69
    Always happens. These events the area north of a TTN-Sandy Hook line sees lighter echoes to start til the layers saturate.
  7. SnowGoose69
    I've heard of that maybe 2 times before in a synoptic snow storm. Usually 4-5 is about the most you can get
  8. SnowGoose69
    FZRAPL at BWI. HRDPS/RGEM/3km NAM all about right. extrapolating the NAM was 30 mins too fast. the HRRR has no clue
  9. SnowGoose69
    As of 19Z 3km NAM continues to be a tad fast and HRRR way too slow with change. BWI should be going SNPL though by 1930Z so about 30-40 minutes behind the 3km NAM
  10. SnowGoose69
    Could be snowing in LGA/JFK by 1945-2000z but we have to see how the shield evolves as it gets north of Sandy Hook where there is always more dry air in the mid levels from the NE flow off land vs C-S NJ
  11. SnowGoose69
  12. SnowGoose69
    As of 130 the 3km NAM is too fast with the changeover line in MD and the HRRR is way too slow.
  13. SnowGoose69
    Its snowing/raining everywhere on observations now from near TTN south. TTN should be snowing within a few minutes
  14. SnowGoose69
    Watch this radar next 2 hours...that line should make it in PA north of BWI if the 3km NAM is right. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DOX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad
  15. SnowGoose69
    Watch CNTRL and NE MD as well as S PA near LNS from 18-20z. If the 3km NAM is right the sleet line is going to blast north through there
  16. SnowGoose69
    Are 850 temps 13C colder than water temps there? I'm not sure they are. It also seems to be developing in a manner its not associated with ocean effect
  17. SnowGoose69
    It has the look of being associated with some type of frontogenensis
  18. SnowGoose69
    Precip will reach ground faster in C-S NJ because flow aloft is more off water so less time to saturate
  19. SnowGoose69
    WRI/NEL are already snowing in NJ but its a fluke band of snow (almost looks ocean effect but its not)
  20. SnowGoose69
    DCA already SNPL...12Z HRRR was not within the same zipcode by 17Z with the mix. 12Z 3km NAM had it almost there by 17
  21. SnowGoose69
    The place to watch if we want to know if mixing is gonna occur faster is probably MDT (Harrisburg). The 3km NAM has them mixing 22Z...way faster than any other model
  22. SnowGoose69
    He may be correct about the forecasts but the models did not indicate that. I forecast for both places and I had them almost entirely FZRA PL from the start
  23. SnowGoose69
    The 3km NAM has sleet to JFK and EWR at 23-00 but then miraculously holds it off and even pushes it south until 05Z. Not sure I believe a push like that gets held off
  24. SnowGoose69
    The prior 06Z run was close as early as 23-00Z from 800-850. It would not take much to push that layer over 0C
  25. SnowGoose69
    Soundings wise things continue to be precariously close. We will be using dual poll for sure. The 06 LGA and JFK NAM soundings show now that even from 00-02Z it’s darn close to flipping to sleet at times. If that layer is even underestimated by 1C it’ll flip to sleet way earlier than expected
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