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Everything posted by PrinceFrederickWx
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The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm
PrinceFrederickWx replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
0.1" and it's already over and melting. Roads and sidewalks never caved. I was forecast 1-3" by LWX... I'm convinced it simply cannot snow in SOMD anymore. -
The 1981-2010 normal had 8" of snow for BWI in February. The 1991-2020 normal has 7.5" in February. If you average the last nine Februaries you get only 1.9" now. Even if you accuse me of cherry-picking, and I do ten years to include 2014-15, I'm still only getting 3.1." If you assume next year is a La Nina (where Februaries usually suck) then this is going down even further.
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The main issue continues to be that the metro areas (and everywhere south and east) can no longer score significant events outside of January. Winter is now boxed into four weeks instead of four months, so the averages are going to be much, much lower as a result. (Note: I will STFU about this forever if the region somehow has a WSW this month or next.)
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I almost want to be the contrarian and just say next year will be the 95-96. Though I do wonder what the long range forecasts (if they even existed back then) were for that winter.
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2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
PrinceFrederickWx replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
With the back-to-back January storms, the errors seemed like they were just sticking a ruler in a random spot and measuring snow depth. Now I'm even more stumped. The only thing we both know is that all the State Highway measurements are probably wrong again somehow. LOL -
The airports could still theoretically go climo+ but it was a red flag early on for the forecasted epic winter that we weren’t on the board by mid-December. I had posted this in the Panic thread back then, but winters like 1996, 2003 and 2010 always showed themselves early. Even the epic backloaded winters like 2015 had accumulating events in November, December and early January.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
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Just remember: we climate doomers were mocked all year on here. Now which of the two threads ended up being more accurate: this one or the long range thread? LOL
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Until proven otherwise, nothing has changed my view that this region can no longer get WSW events outside of January.
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He's gonna need a pop-up book of an elephant.
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My youngest is two and has a weather pop-up book he likes. He keeps opening and closing the snowflake picture over and over, saying "See snowflake! See snowflake!" This disease starts at a young age. LOL
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You know some of them will hold on to the bitter end. They'll be posting maps in mid-April when it's 85 degrees saying the pattern looks ripe in two weeks for a redux of April 28, 1898.
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So when does the 2010 pattern kick in again? By this time in 2010 I had over 50” of snow. This year I’ve had three glorified cartoppers and a week’s worth of cold.
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It’s mostly turned into a cult of personality around a dozen or so posters, most of whom have known each other since the dail-up era.
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No complaints here either, I’ve been enjoying it quite a bit! Been doing a lot of outdoor daytrips. If it’s not going to snow, sunny and warm is the next best thing.
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The goalposts are quietly being moved. Now it’s all the last week of February into early March. I didn’t think a dry February was even possible in a Nino?
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This is a bit off topic, but I keep remembering there was a massively hyped HECS that was supposed to be a few days after Christmas a few years back. The models I think had it for a very long time up until a few days before. Was that 2018?
- 2,509 replies
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion
PrinceFrederickWx replied to RIC Airport's topic in Mid Atlantic
I'm not from the area but was reading through this list and I'm shocked at those 1989 numbers. I had no idea Norfolk had all that snow that year! There wasn't any up here. Anyway, interesting list, I enjoyed reading it and hope you post the March ones. I've been curious about climo there. -
Weenies gonna get roasted by a can kick in a few weeks
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I measured 7.3” in that event (3/21/2018). Most of SoMD did very well.
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
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I take it you weren't here in 2018 then?
- 2,509 replies
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- weenie fest or weenie roast?
- weenies got roasted
- (and 2 more)
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Chasing patterns 2+ weeks out:
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Well PSU said it's going to be on Feb 24 + or - a few days so that should do it, I'm screwed.
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Yeah, usually our "snowy" March is just one event. 2014 was arguably the most extreme March here ever, with multiple snows and wall-to-wall cold. The odds of something like that happening again in our lifetimes is probably very low.
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I've got a Dr. appt. on Feb. 28 that I've had to wait over a month for- that'll be our one-and-only HECS date, trust me.