jpeters3

Sub 900 is exceedingly unlikely, so it still doesn't make him an idiot for calling this one out. And what does not knowing when 12z is have to do with anything? I have a PhD in atmospheric science and I can't remember how 12z translates to local time on most days. Does that invalidate my meteorological knowledge?

The outer circulation of gilbert was clearly much larger. Also, gilbert was undergoing an ERC when it made landfall, so probably had a much larger RMW at that point.

Regardless of how much you think Jim Edds knows, a sub-900 hPa "call" is simply not based on science. Yes it is possible, but probably unlikely given (1) the relative infrequence of such events, and (2) the moderate shear currently affecting the system (going sub-900 requires pristine conditions).

I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month. Yeah I'm with you. I would rather see a monster cat 4 or 5 storm that remains out to see, than mayhem/destruction related to landfall. This is why I find the east pac season fun to track.

FWIW, forecasted shear among dynamical models is generally in the 20-30 kt range upon entry into the gulf.

This ^^^^^

source?