Allsnow

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Rgem looks good for a few inches even In the city. We need a thump and we will be good.

I think the city and immediate suburbs west of the river are good for 2 inches. I can see ewr getting 3-4 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think that there is also another wild card. We keep seeing that ridge build over the warm pool around Hawaii. Very tough to get the ridge into Alaska with that feature there. I mentioned the ridge pull back that we normally see in an El Niño February the other day. I just hope that this more Niña-like feature doesn’t interfere.

 

Yeah if the dateline ridge comes back that would also keep the epo form going -. The weeklies are nine chilling for the start of February so perhaps it is going to score a win. It was the first to see the Niña pattern for early January. 

I’ll go 1-2 for the metro and 2-4 north and west. Long Island c-1. I think sw ct will do the best as in top end of the 2-4.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think it will stay there. To me it’s a transient look as the vortex traverses AK as an epo ridge establishes itself. That’s my guess given what the trop pac forcing looks like week 2.  It looks ominous simply because it’s at the end and so we can’t “see past it”.

 But just because we dont get a dumpster fire pattern doesn’t automatically mean we get a great one either.  But I don’t think it’s heading towards a permanent AK vortex pac puke pattern  

Before that I don’t share either extreme view. We likely get warm after the cold shot next week as the Hudson Ridge drifts too far south and temporarily links up with the mid latitude ridge.  But there are ways the look could reasonably shift and suddenly be better. 

If the ocean storm next week were to phase with the NS and pull up into a 50/50.  Or another yet unseen vort bombs into that space. The wave break from such pumps the ridge over the top and suddenly we get the colder look of some sporadic runs recently.  It’s unlikeky but it’s one rather insignificant change in the longwave pattern that has a drastic effect.  Another option is the day 10 storm helps to knock down the ridge to our northeast and sets the table for a threat day 12-15.  There are ways to avoid a disaster within the look we are getting.  But it will involve some luck.  It’s flawed but not no hope.  

 

Great to see you post here. Yeah at the  end of the eps the vortex looks to be setting up shop. The weeklies have this weakening and Being replaced with a ridge. It would be best to see this low sit in the Aleutians instead of moving into ak. 
 

I know the euro is looping back to p6 on the rmm plots. I wonder if this is the reason we are seeing such swings in the northern pacific. The AAM spike is also playing a role in pushing the ridge into central Canada. 
 

On the roundy plots you can see a kelvin wave in p6. Imo this is why the euro is looping back into p6. I think as we get closer to the end of January you will see it correct into p8. Looks like by mid February the mjo wave dies in 8 and rots in cod. Perhaps then climo nino will take over. The weeklies do look good to start February and have a -nao look to start March lol. 

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

An AK vortex would be the kiss of death for February, it doesn’t get any uglier than an AK vortex

Yep. Let’s hope its misplaced and we keep it by the Aleutians. It could be because the euro is looping the mjo back to 6. Which imo is bogus but I honestly don’t know anymore. It is what it is at this point 

25 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i see an unfavorable pacific that will load the country with warm air which negates any good storm track

Yep. That’s not a good look in the 11-15 day. The goa low would move into ak. Let’s hope that’s not correct. We have seen the 11-15 day just change. 

Ripping pretty good here in this snow shower. 

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you were so confident you wouldn't be throwing a fit and every plot I've seen takes the MJO into phase 7 and then into the COD. 

There's a reason the AO/NAO aren't tanking. 

Those plots are picking up on a kelvin wave in p6. That’s why you’re getting the curl back then back to 8. By the start of February we will be in p8 then the wave looks to die. Will will probably be in cod after the 10th then climo nino takes over for February.

You can now see the members curling back. Those maps are so predictable. 

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It actually goes beyond this season. Amplified systems usually adjust north over time. So when the storm is originally modeled to go through the Great Lakes, we are in a marginal spot to begin with. Any warmer or northward shift just adds to the milder outcome.That’s why our best snowstorms are often forecast to be just or our south or east in the long range. As we get closer, the heaviest snows begin to creep into our area. You can go back and look at our best snowstorms and see this forecast evolution. 

Yep. Bad patterns bring bad results. 

Yeah I think the biggest issue is the fact the waa  is going north of the metro. So we are left with a band of snow for those south of CT. Best forcing is well north of the area 

Eps ticked snowier also. Mean close to 3 for nyc 

18z euro ticked colder. 3-4 from the city west. 

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Lovely 18z run

I have no clue why people would give you weenies. I mean are people trolling for warmth here or not looking at the pattern ahead.

It’s okay Anthony. I’ll survive 

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Happy Hour Gfs says congrats dca and ACY next weekend during the torch 

Then a 95 blizzard on the 30th...obviously this will change but shows the potential 

Happy Hour Gfs says congrats dca and ACY next weekend during the torch 

18z Gfs 

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Good point, others have observed that as well, no in-betweens, at least it seems that way.....I've said 8 inches was considered a big snow storm when I was a kid.

Yep. Historic cold in December 2017 to record snows in March 2018. On the flip side, record warmth in February 2018/2019 and now record warmth in January 2020. 
 

I would be fool to not say that the earth has warmed. But imo the extremes are most noticeable. 

49 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

 

I knew we could count on Don to get us some numbers confirming that warm winters and warm periods in winters have been around for a while.  

Yes. I made a comment in the discussion thread that the  pond skating in 1907 had to be horrible. 

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yes, in 170 years of record keeping there have been 5 warmer years, and two of them were from before 1950. Three of the 6 (including this year), were in the past 22 years (1998, 2007, 2019). The prior years were 1907, 1932 and 1950.

Essentially, in the 148 years before 1998, there were 3 warmer years, and in the 22 years since, there were 3 years in the top 6. 

This is all dumb anyway, as the earth has warmed only 1 degree C since 1850, so you will still have great extremes, cold and warm. -5, becomes -3, which is still pretty ****ing cold. Nothing dumber than "it snowed last week, global warming is a hoax"

100% agree. Perhaps in 50 years our winters will be more like North Carolina.  imo are extremes have gotten more extreme as their seems to me no middle of the road anymore. 

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What?

My comment was tongue in cheek. But some have posted as if this first half of January is the new normal and winters of yore are over. When you look at the stats most of those warm starts to January were in the early 1900s

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 1-15, 2020 will very likely finish with a mean temperature of 42.8°. That would rank as the 6th warmest start to January in New York City (Central Park).

The five warmer years were:

2007: 46.4°
1932: 44.0°
1950: 43.6°
1907: 43.5°
1998: 43.3°

I guess no pond skating back in 1932? Snoski and weatherpruf would have been jumping off their horses.

just reading this thread you would think the warmest first half of This month has happen in the last decade.

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better.

 

 

Nice post! Yeah, you’re 100% correct about the +AAM. We just need that to relax a bit to pull the ridge back west. Great stuff @bluewave. I don’t have access to the AAM charts. 

15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

850's well below 0  still well entrenched over the whole area at 12z Saturday - also Sunday 12Z - anybody have 0Z Sunday 850 ? 

Ditto to @binbisso post. The flatter look out west allows for a colder tick. We also do better with the waa precipitation 

Euro a bit weaker this run with the primary. Allows for the area to hang onto snow a bit longer. 

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

and + NAO - no blocking allowing the cold air to escape and no chance for a redevelopment of the storm to the south

Yes, if we had a -nao it might lock the high in. But that doesn’t change the fact the low is going To  track into the Great Lakes. Too much digging off the west coast to force this underneath us.