Allsnow

8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

And the pattern that was changing...stays exactly the same

Cutter to rain

Let’s see how last week of January does

To be fair the real pattern change doesn’t start until after the 20th. We are currently reshuffling the pac to a better look. If it were to snow Saturday it would be a bonus before the pac improves. The wheels of change are already in motion as tomorrow will be the last warm day for a while. 

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 

So now the pattern isnt going to change ? What is it ?

The pattern will improve after the 20th but the -epo/poleward pna has been waffling on the guidance. 

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the longer range EPS doesn't look as cold as yesterday's runs did

Yep. We are loosing the -epo look and are left with +pna and split flow look. The reshuffle around the 25th could hurt temps around here. 
 

next week looks cold and dry

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah them and I think Philly is even worse....my guess is theyll score in the upcoming pattern sometime between Jan 22-Feb 5 or so.

Yeah, Philadelphia is at less then a inch. It would be fitting for that to happen next week. The storm coming into the northwest is kicking the ridge East. It’s not a bad pattern for a southeast snowstorm lol. But I agree, we will have chance in this pattern. Eventually something will work for us down here.

Next Wednesday is definitely a good pattern for a southeast snowstorm. That would be fitting lol. Euro is very close for the southeast 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this) 

Euro is more amped and north this run. Very little snow for the metro area and 1-3 north and west

Need to stop the amped trend or this will turn quickly into festive flakes then rain 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Couple things... I thought Snowy was calling for a cold/snowy second half of winter...did he change his mind on that?

But more importantly, not sure I get what their point is wrt the IO base state.  It is true that a wave near the dateline is "better" but a phase 2/3 in February is a cold look also.  

So not sure what that was about...

The roundy plots have this going into p8 to start February then dying and convection starting in p2 (standing wave). As you posted p2 is a cold look for February. The rmm plots I think are picking up on the kelvin wave in p6. Which is why they are curling back earlier 

Just now, NEG NAO said:

instead of just being critical of what I post - also add your 2 cents - what you think will happen - if you have a better map post it !

I did. It’s posted above. My thoughts haven’t changed. 2-4 for I-95 

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS has this more of a significant inland event - immediate NYC metro much less

This map is awful to use as it includes sleet. Not the event for a map like this 

From what I can see the reason you are still getting the loop on the rmm plots is a kelvin wave in p6. You can see it on the roundy plots. This is still going to go around the horn. 

That pink line is the kelvin wave in warm phases. But the real mjo is in p8 by feb 10th

18z eps even more amped with less snow along the coast. Let’s hope this levels out soon. 

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS slower-turning into a Sat night event

Yep. More amped this run. Snowfall 2-4 along the coast a bit more inland. Pretty much what everyone expects 

Yep, weeklies are great looking until mid/end of February. Then the Niña pattern returns with ridge in the East. That makes sense imo with the mjo going around the horn. And I wouldn’t mind a warm start to March this year.

5 minutes ago, Enigma said:

Absolutely incorrect. Completely different setups. Coastal snow will breakout with isentropic lift from advancing warm front running into a very decent CAD signature. Chicago is none of that.

This isn't a SWFE or gradient type system. 

Yes, our snow is coming from the WAA precipitation. My reference to Chicago is that fact if they have precipitation problems that means the best WAA will be to the metros north. You can see that on the euro idv with a more amped up low. The WAA ends up moving more southwest to northeast. Perhaps why the eps mean has a tight gradient by the coast 

00z euro had the low in central Indiana with no Ptype issues for Chicago and better waa fo us.

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

All snow in the Catskills?

Yep and then some! Enjoy 

On 1/8/2020 at 8:51 PM, tombo82685 said:

False and false.

There is a complete atmospheric journal on slow and fast mjo and also the lag each response has

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0352.1

and here is the cpc website that shows composite lag of each

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/LaggedComposites/description.shtml

@jbenedet here are two articles about lag response for each mjo phase. 

The eps went towards the GEFS with the -epo ridging. That’s a real cold look

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

MJO in phase 6 def gives me pause/concern that Saturday doesn’t end up colder/snowier than current guidance.

Admittedly though, I haven’t been following the MJO until very recently...So how strong this signal is vs the other players and climo is something I’m still piecing together...

To me the only takeaway is the MJO is potentially calling BS on significant East Coast confluence/troughing ahead of this shortwave...I.E. current model guidance for a weak +NAO/-NAO setting up around that timeframe may be faux or transient—NAO end up more positive? 

Hopefully someone here who follows MJO more closely can offer a better opinion on this...

I think a lot depends on the wave break from the mid week storm for northern New England. Most of the guidance is really blowing that up so it helps with the confluence. The main player imo is the high pressure. That’s a real strong high moving in at 1044. 
 

The mjo response in p6 is more of southeast ridge. The euro was amped at 12z which raised hgts in the East. We have seen this throughout the winter season with the euro. It will be amped then slowly back away from it. It is currently the most amped up global from the 12z suite.

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully, we can move past the the southern stream suppression mode of recent times. The trough axis was also too Far East on 1-13-19. That one was right after the MJO phase 7-8 passage.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20190113.html

Some Mid Atlantic crush jobs on the idv eps with that closed low look. 
 

It’s definitely going to get active along the east coast. Eps has a potential costal the middle of next week and the following weekend. I like the the axis of the trough around the 25th. 

The eps mean mirrors the op. 2-4/3-5 type event with a stronger primary. 
 

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Let’s hope that the 21-23rd potential can make it far enough north. Eric Webb did a great job with the stats. MJO phase 7 is the best phase for winter storm potential in North Carolina during January. 

 

 

The mean trough might be too Far East for us. FWIW the euro was a close miss. 

That cold shot next week has strat support with the pv taking a right hook. 

Just miss a 990mb snowstorm next Thursday on the euro. It will most definitely change by 00z but we are finally seeing the change to a more optimistic snow pattern.