Allsnow

Looks like it’s ripping good under that band in Manhattan 

Just now, weatherpruf said:

That looks like one big dry slot to my untrained eye....

After that band moves through down by New Brunswick we will need to wait for the stuff by phl. Imo anything we get now until then is a bonus 

Just now, Tatamy said:

Radar is definitely filling in across east central PA.  Steady light snow here.

Yep. HRRR swinging and missing on that. That will be snow for you

Just now, ThatHurricane said:

Sticking instantly to all surfaces in upper manhattan

Some 30dbz mixed in with that band. 

Don’t think the dry slot will last long as precipitation is already filling in by Phl. The hrrr has completely missed on that precipitation down by dca. 

Down to light snow. Still pretty good flake size. Very picturesque outside 

Band looks good moving into the city. 

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, DOA. It was looking juicy halfway through Jersey only to result in light snow.

Looks good on radar. Probably stuck between radar beams. Looks healthy moving into the city 

Probably around .2-.25 here from this band. Goes to show you what good ratios can do for you. Will definitely not be that way later today. 

S+ 24 

I like how precipitation is filling in Rapidly by state college 

Light to mod snow. Nice to have instant stickage for a change. 

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM and HRRR actually give Long Island more snow than northern Jersey now. Doesn't make much sense since LI was supposed to get less due to warming. Models have suddenly cut way back for my area, showing closer to 1 inch. Bad trends here at the last minute for this area. I know people say it doesn't matter because it's nowcasting time, but models are supposed to be more accurate the closer they get to an event. So they should be more accurate now than they were last night, but it's hard to believe LI could get more than northern NJ in this kind of setup.

Nam looked good for nnj. 3k nam was a sleet fest. Gfs still has 2-3 as we flip to mod snow between 6-8pm 

11 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The models unanimously weaken that fronto forcing between 700-500mb where the DGZ is, so if this is correct, +SN may not make it into the area this afternoon.

Hopefully the same the dry air helps us stay snow as the main slug comes in later this afternoon 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Salesman. It looked good, but everyone mentioned the caveats. Now, It looks pretty ugly as modeled. That’s the key phrase. However, I think there is support for the ugly pacific. MJO gone wild.

Yep. The wave in p5 (kelvin) is gaining strength and will be the main wave once the forcing weakens in wpac. 

Enjoy the snow today as I don’t think we will see much sustained cold going forward. Looks like my idea of this getting into p8 is going to fail. We will be into p7 at the end of the month so perhaps we pull a storm off. After that we are going to head to p5/6 as the kelvin wave is getting stronger. Wash rinse repeat. 
 

The RMM plots might have been correct for the wrong reasons earlier this month but they have merit now. Just one of those winters that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. We can always pull off a storm but it will be hard with temps above normal. If we have any hope of sustained cold/snow in the second half of February we need to see the Pv weaken. 

Convection is always hard to predict in the future. Those looking for above normal days are about to get more. The uber Pv, -PDO, +AAM, and warm pool south of Ak were all huge players in this failed winter.

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Did LI fall into the ocean?

Kpsv 1.2 

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I actually agree with those 100%.

Do u have the 6z EURO?

Final call 

KNYC 2

KEWR 3

KLGA 1.5

KJFK .9

KBDR 4 

Ord 2.5 at 9pm 

14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

How much snow there?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

How much in Naperville?

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam appears to be coming in colder 

Yep. What I wanted to see 

2 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Surface southerly winds inland from the coast will be light through late afternoon:

 

 

 

Temperatures rise during the evening on stronger southerlies:

 

Yeah, I think nyc and immediate burbs have to 7-8pm before the change. Euro cut back on qpf this run which ticked accumulations down. I would like to see the nam loose that warm layer tonight at 00z. 

Hdrp