Allsnow

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You can see the models adjusting milder around the 25th now that they have such a strong AAM rise. This is occurring as the record MJO enters the Western Pacific phases. We are getting a very strong WWB with this and a more El Niño looking regime. The stronger ridge building into SE Canada around the 25th is part of this pattern.

 

Do you think will then get more of a classic Nino February? The stj is definitely going to become more active and with are at the coldest climo part of the year. We don’t need -25 over are heads to snow in late January 

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

What happened to the pattern flip after the 20th? Can any of these models really be that good? This winter has stinker written all over it, but that's just gut feeling. I'll wait and see what happens, because what else can one do?

The entire h5 set up is changing after the 20th. It’s not going to be consistently cold for weeks on end. We will have times where it will warm up. Today will be the last warm day for a while. 

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

we had colder days in early december then what will happen the rest of this winter...for the city...

You will have colder days next week 

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Thank you

As I said above, several days AN...as of now

Incorrect. Next week will be below normal. What model shows several days next week above normal? 

9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Wasnt that the cutter winter just like this one?

You can get cutters in any winter. 

97-98 was a strong El Niño with a very fast pac jet. We literally never had a chance at snow. This winter is nothing like that one 

11 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Next week looks to have several AN days 

 

Yes in the southwest  part of the country. 

The coldest stretch of weather I have experienced was probably December 2017. I believe we were below frz for two weeks. No, it wasn’t in 1852 when we skated on ponds and Manhattan was covered in snow all winter.

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I think the big difference between stinker years today and 30-40 years ago ( and I was around for them ) is you did not have the ridiculous warmth. You still knew it was winter, alright. And if you walked to the bus stop without gloves on it would sting....

You will get your fill of cold dry next week. 

16 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Are we gonna have brutal cold followed by rain storms rinse repeat the whole winter?

18z gfs has the perfect costal track for the 25th. Unfortunately, the bl is torch with the lakes low.  At least the cutters will be gone after Saturday 

2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Let’s be honest weather isn’t exact science and models are usually wrong. Past 2-3 days I don’t believe it

But that doesn’t change the fact that this is a bad h5 set up for snow in nyc. Can it change back to more of a look we had a few days ago? Sure! But I wouldn’t bet on it. 

8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

And the pattern that was changing...stays exactly the same

Cutter to rain

Let’s see how last week of January does

To be fair the real pattern change doesn’t start until after the 20th. We are currently reshuffling the pac to a better look. If it were to snow Saturday it would be a bonus before the pac improves. The wheels of change are already in motion as tomorrow will be the last warm day for a while. 

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 

So now the pattern isnt going to change ? What is it ?

The pattern will improve after the 20th but the -epo/poleward pna has been waffling on the guidance. 

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the longer range EPS doesn't look as cold as yesterday's runs did

Yep. We are loosing the -epo look and are left with +pna and split flow look. The reshuffle around the 25th could hurt temps around here. 
 

next week looks cold and dry

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah them and I think Philly is even worse....my guess is theyll score in the upcoming pattern sometime between Jan 22-Feb 5 or so.

Yeah, Philadelphia is at less then a inch. It would be fitting for that to happen next week. The storm coming into the northwest is kicking the ridge East. It’s not a bad pattern for a southeast snowstorm lol. But I agree, we will have chance in this pattern. Eventually something will work for us down here.

Next Wednesday is definitely a good pattern for a southeast snowstorm. That would be fitting lol. Euro is very close for the southeast 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this) 

Euro is more amped and north this run. Very little snow for the metro area and 1-3 north and west

Need to stop the amped trend or this will turn quickly into festive flakes then rain 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Couple things... I thought Snowy was calling for a cold/snowy second half of winter...did he change his mind on that?

But more importantly, not sure I get what their point is wrt the IO base state.  It is true that a wave near the dateline is "better" but a phase 2/3 in February is a cold look also.  

So not sure what that was about...

The roundy plots have this going into p8 to start February then dying and convection starting in p2 (standing wave). As you posted p2 is a cold look for February. The rmm plots I think are picking up on the kelvin wave in p6. Which is why they are curling back earlier 

Just now, NEG NAO said:

instead of just being critical of what I post - also add your 2 cents - what you think will happen - if you have a better map post it !

I did. It’s posted above. My thoughts haven’t changed. 2-4 for I-95 

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS has this more of a significant inland event - immediate NYC metro much less

This map is awful to use as it includes sleet. Not the event for a map like this 

From what I can see the reason you are still getting the loop on the rmm plots is a kelvin wave in p6. You can see it on the roundy plots. This is still going to go around the horn. 

That pink line is the kelvin wave in warm phases. But the real mjo is in p8 by feb 10th

18z eps even more amped with less snow along the coast. Let’s hope this levels out soon. 

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS slower-turning into a Sat night event

Yep. More amped this run. Snowfall 2-4 along the coast a bit more inland. Pretty much what everyone expects 

Yep, weeklies are great looking until mid/end of February. Then the Niña pattern returns with ridge in the East. That makes sense imo with the mjo going around the horn. And I wouldn’t mind a warm start to March this year.