Allsnow

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd still take that run....some taint, but good thump first. I just want everything covered again with several inches and then work from there when the good pattern sets in.

Yeah, that’s some Barney colored type cold coming after this system. Would be nice to lay some snow down for that. 

12z euro 996 over Chicago while 00z had a 1008 over central Indiana 

The main difference between the Gfs and euro is just how much it digs out in the Midwest. The Gfs has less digging and lowers hgts out east. The euro is also stronger with the energy out west 

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

0c line is in the mid Atlantic 

Could be the bias of the Euro.  Interesting week ahead.

We can’t have it that amped out in the Midwest. One thing to look for is how Chicago makes out. If they remain all snow it’s better for us. 

Euro is 2-4 along the coast and 4-8 north and west. 

992 into southeast Canada. Front end snows move in Saturday afternoon. Coast goes to rain rather quickly 

Going to be incorrect on my guess lol. Euro is further north at 12z with the primary. It’s over Chicago now compared to central Illinois at 00z

1044 high over the lakes....

The euro has a 990 southeast of Maine for the middle of week system 

12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lol, reading the thread you'd think the 12z GFS increased totals but instead it cut back a little. Anyway, locked and loaded for 2-4". Dewpoints look like they'll be our friend.

I don’t understand the point of this post.

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Precip not as heavy especially on recent runs but that could change or adjust a bit.

It’s all about the forcing. It obviously something we won’t know until we get closer. I just checked the high strength for November 2018 it was 1035. This is supposed to be around 1040, so stronger currently. But 1035 is nothing to sneeze at. @snowman19 it’s one thing to be argumentative with facts it another to be argumentative just for the sake of it. 

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This setup is absolutely nothing at all like November, 2018

Why? Strong artic high with overrunning precipitation. We turned to rain in November 2018 also. The 10-1 maps are not grossly over done with the mid levels so cold beforehand. The kuchera maps are even snowier! Yes, lots of time left for this to go either way. 

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Well if you want a stronger system for Thursday the Canadian is delivering it

Nice thump on the cmc before the area goes to rain. 

Nice 1044 high in southeast Canada on the cmc. 

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Cmc is more amped with Thursdays low

Yep. I know what the pretty snow maps are showing but keep expectations low. 
 

This is probably a 2-4 type deal along the coast with more north and west. Lots of time left so hopefully it trends better.

Just now, forkyfork said:

this is a good sign 

Yeah the high was stronger and further west. We need to root for a stronger storm in New England on Thursday.

4-8 thump for the area on the Gfs. It’s nice to see but keep expectations in check. Models have been horrible this winter and having a low in upstate ny isn’t ideal. It’s really all about that high pressure for the nyc metro. 

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

High is noticeably stronger too. Let’s see what happens. FWIW which is something I guess the icon was much colder for Saturday’s event

Low around Erie helps also. Lots of overrunning snows this run for the area. Only negative it the high splits so we a bit of a southeast wind along the coast 

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

12z gfs really blowing up the cutter for Thursday in New England. This should really help with confluence for Saturday.

This is definitely going to be a colder run then 06z. The storm blowing up beforehand help keeps the artic high in place. 

12z gfs really blowing up the cutter for Thursday in New England. This should really help with confluence for Saturday.

9 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

How was the 6z eps on the low placement for Saturdays event bud?

Pretty far north. The front end is still there but the eps makes it more of a Saturday night event. 

Some really nice trends with this over night. Last week I mentioned a possible overrunning threat around this timeframe. I can just see ch 7 news now, with the screen shot of last Saturday in the 70’s at Central Park compared to next Saturday in the snow lol. 

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so now you are saying the short range MJO analyses is incorrect along with the long range beyond day 10 ??????

No that’s not what he is saying. When you’re between phases you can still have effects of the previous phase. You can have a bit of lag 

11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Still rain for 2/3rd of us if I am reading correctly 

Next weekend is going to cut into the lakes. If we can get a cold high pressure with some cad perhaps it starts as some snow. I would keep expectations in check with that one. The better patterns starts after next weekend 

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While you hope we get a favorable storm track for heavy snows at the coast, just pointing out a colder pattern coming around the 20th isn’t a guarantee. That’s why storm tracks are so important. Late last January with a similar 500 mb pattern we only got some light snows. 

Yep. We very well could swing and Miss. let’s hope for better luck this time. Last January we missed a storm to our south that crushed DCA.