Allsnow

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

idk the cold might dump into the west at the very beginning, but this is a loaded setup. about as good as it gets

Agree, a window between the 7th-10th but then we go back to a -pna look with deep Blues off the west coast 

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

That's a strong -NAO!!

Yes, but cold looks to be dumping into the west coast. I don’t think that’s even a snow pattern for us 

Don’t like all those deep blues off the west coast on the ensembles 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Big NAO block on the euro at day 10

Tellies look great on the Euro

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that was all pac based, this is better than that

Sorry, march 2018? 

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this is the best looking december pattern since 2010

Best block since 2017? 

Just now, MJO812 said:

NAO and AO are going to crash

All aboard the cold train if the southeast ridge cooperates

PAC* and that’s not looking great 

Ridiculous block on the eps 

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hopefully it's not still 58 a month from now

It will be, as it will be the day after Christmas 

31 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

can't wait for the KU to tuck in and slot all the long island freaks

They will be upset 

9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

what about the AO? What's the forecast for that?

++++++

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nice ridging 

We have to hope the NAO isn't that strong.  A beefy southeast ridge with a negative NAO will do the trick. 

You want the deep reds to be further south on that map to be ideal for our location 

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you bring that up you get called a weenie & dumb. 

The trends are not good and even SNE isn't safe in such a marginal pattern 

The problem is that the look with a better pac and better block only lasts a few days. Then it goes back with more of a -pna with southeast ridge. 
 

I don’t think that look would be friendly for sne either. You already have a smoothed out mean showing a -pna with ridge in the east. Imagine what happens when we get closer? 

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Ugly

Block to far north and -pna makes every storm Go ham in the plains. Obviously it’s a op run but that has been the trend of the ensembles 

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I did not like the overnight GEFS and EPS ensembles. Hopefully just a one day blip.

The trend the past few runs have been more -pna and southeast ridge 

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Tropical eps still looking good. Like the 12z yesterday, basically. 

Looks like p8 at some point in December which is usually cold in the east 

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Worst weather term ever. Whenever you see it or hear it , it means push back and back and back and just offers no consistent promise or anything to look forward to .

I particularly like the old “we might need to take a few cutters to get our storm” always uplifting when your hear that on February 1st haha

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GEFS pulled back some. Patience will be needed

Patience pattern? 

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how things turn out. Models have split La Niña forcing in in early December north of Australia and in South America. We would probably want the La Niña Aleutians ridge to push eastward in Mid-December to relax the Western Trough. Just a little ridging into the West can make a big difference if we can hold the -NAO.

 

 

 

My once concern would be the ensemble mean over smoothing things this far out. When in reality the -pna is worst and -nao is weaker as we get closer 

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models increased the rain for Sunday

Would have been nice two months ago sigh 

Hopefully after the 5th we get into a better winter pattern. I do have concerns (like @bluewave) on if the pac will improve. 

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

16 in somerville and sussex

Pretty cold For November 

21 the low here 

Buffalo airport 30 total so far