Allsnow

My comment was tongue in cheek. But some have posted as if this first half of January is the new normal and winters of yore are over. When you look at the stats most of those warm starts to January were in the early 1900s

I guess no pond skating back in 1932? Snoski and weatherpruf would have been jumping off their horses. just reading this thread you would think the warmest first half of This month has happen in the last decade.

Nice post! Yeah, you’re 100% correct about the +AAM. We just need that to relax a bit to pull the ridge back west. Great stuff @bluewave. I don’t have access to the AAM charts.

Ditto to @binbisso post. The flatter look out west allows for a colder tick. We also do better with the waa precipitation

Euro a bit weaker this run with the primary. Allows for the area to hang onto snow a bit longer.

Yes, if we had a -nao it might lock the high in. But that doesn’t change the fact the low is going To track into the Great Lakes. Too much digging off the west coast to force this underneath us.

Me too Anthony!

-pna is the reason for the poor storm track

Haha. Very nino like run. -epo/stj/+pna/Aleutian low/ Pv north of Hudson Bay.

January 2007 like. Incredible

-epo returns on the GEFS

Nice look on the GEFS for the 25th.

Well those years are historic for a reason. We can’t see into February until next week, most likely why we don’t have any hints currently All I’m saying is the pattern going forward isn’t last weekend. We will have chances with cold air around. The nino esque look has me hopeful for a typical cold snowy February.

But now we have blocking in central Canada. We don’t need a -nao to snow in nyc. We had that for the first half of December and got squat. And yes we can get cutters in any winter. January 2014 had them even during our good periods. But with this look I would favor a costal track over a cutter to Detroit. You have been around long enough to know we don’t need a great pattern in January to snow.

A very Miller b esque look on the gfs for the 25th. I hope some can step away from the ledge with that for a few hours. I know I know, it’s not December 2017 type cold

We will have opportunities coming up the next few weeks. The reshuffling was on the ensembles for the 26th but the signal is bit stronger now. By just reading this thread you would think next week La Niña is coming and we will torch again. We still have ridging our west with a split flow along with a northwest flow from Canada. The cutters are gone after Saturday but most people won’t acknowledge that because it means little for their backyard. Agree with @bluewave, the +amm is probably hurting the -epo and the scandy ridging is fading. Which it return is allowing higher hgts in central Canada. It’s still not a bad look and trust me if it looked like trash I would acknowledge it.

I agree that we are past the point where winter will be saved by some epic 2015/2005 type run. I say this because I just don’t see those cards lining up for us. That being said, we will get a storm eventually. Probably sometime in February

Sleety look just south of the metro on the nam

Didn’t 89 have a Big Mid Atlantic storm??

Incredible stuff! Thanks Don. We might see that typical backend niño February

IMO the niño look can get it done this time of year. We don’t need -10 sitting over our heads that leads to cold dry next week.

Do you think will then get more of a classic Nino February? The stj is definitely going to become more active and with are at the coldest climo part of the year. We don’t need -25 over are heads to snow in late January

The entire h5 set up is changing after the 20th. It’s not going to be consistently cold for weeks on end. We will have times where it will warm up. Today will be the last warm day for a while.

You will have colder days next week

Incorrect. Next week will be below normal. What model shows several days next week above normal?