Allsnow

Wave spacing and the vortex killing the ridge out west on the euro. This doesn’t allow the northern stream to dive in. So the southern stream has to do it all on its own in a meh airmass. The ridge is just not as sharp as we need on the euro.

Imo the forcing in the western pac is a kelvin wave that will fade quickly. You can see it on the roundy plots. The gefs have the correct idea on mjo progression. The euro and its ensembles have been correcting towards the Gfs.

This was the mjo for February 2015. Just hung out in cod until March it went crazy in cold phases.

Persistent forecasting isn’t a good way to forecast.

Eventually we will time one of these wet systems with cold air.

I see a -epo with a -pna and southeast ridge in the long long range. Does it makes sense mjo wise? Yes. But with the strat effects I think we will be okay. It would be a gradient pattern with swfe. The pv being distributed will lead to more of a -epo then what is being forecasted currently. February will feature lots of opportunities for snow. Obviously, easy to say when we have had so little. For next weekend threat, I like the interior. With the high moving off shore it doesn’t help a already meh airmass. I continue to like the 5th-8th time frame for our biggest threat.

I’m confident now of are coldest arctic blast of the season to start February. The strat looking real good on the gefs.

Absolutely. I remember being in awe of the snow depth after the December storm. It had been since 95-96 since I had witness snow like that.

Agree. The December storm was amazing.

December 2000 crushed out area of middlesex county.

Eps looks great and it continues to move up in time. Still centered around the 5th.

I’m is great agreement with you. I think we see a favorable period at the end of the first week in February. Mid month more of a -pna/se ridge with the cold in the mid west. End of the month as the mjo goes back into colder phases we see a favorable period.

Agree. That 5-8 timeframe is probably the best look we had all winter. The ridge in central Canada moves into Greenland with a decent pacific.

Starting to see the strat effects on the ops now for the 5-8th.

I just think the Pv will corporate as we enter February. We could see a more of a La Niña @Isotherm look mid month but the cold air will be around.

Anyone that has gone cold and snowy for this winter has had it rough. My point of posting his tweet is that I agree with him. Does it mean 40 inch February for Knyc? No! All I’m saying is I don’t think February will be a all out disaster. (like January) IMO February should offer some chances. It was obvious last week (I posted such) that January was toast.

@bluewave great post a few days ago about a stronger wave in p1 to disrupt the Pv/vortex.

Mjo won’t rule the roost

I still think our chances will go up for snow around the 5th. The airmass will greatly improve. Signs of the trough pulling back west between the 10-15 of February. But that’s so far out in time it will probably changed. I continue to like the disruptions to the Pv we are seeing for February.

Euro was leading the way on this with a better Pv orientation for the first week of February. The GEFS just caved in that direction. I’m definitely feeling more confident now for the cold shot around the 5th

Interior should be excited with this setup

We look to have a good pna next week. The airmass and position of ridge will be key. A costal hugger or a apps runner isn’t a cutter. I doubt we see a cutter in this pattern.

Getting out there in the uber long range but I like the 5th-8th timeframe. Better airmass with some blocking.

Yeah, starts kicking that vortex out around the 3rd as the Hudson ridge moves closer to Greenland.

Because it’s a weather forum and find weather interesting. I hope this is okay with you.......