wdrag

Publicity... whew... I am a weenie. Hopefully I am learning to keep all this predictability in perspective and not too quickly buy in on a wish cast. Of course I want winter to go on. I do eventually realize when there is no chance. Keeping the door open til the Aleutian Low redevelops.

I disagree... I'll post a one liner when I admit winter over. I'll need updated info on 3/1 Stratwarm possibilities ( not skilled at new EC methodology). IF that stratwarm doesn't materialize, then winter possibly done, but for now... I am not believing 00z/5 EPS at 360 hours. If I'm not mistaken 2-3 weeks ago posters were looking for a warmup soon after the first week of Feb. Becoming clearer (to me) that this persistently warmer than normal (no winter here) warmup is delayed til at least the 19th (maybe even the 23rd since AK troughs have a delayed 4-5 day east coast response). Keeping in mind that this LaNina is not behaving traditionally and that there is so much we don't know...I am holding off on pronouncing winter over. Clearly the 06z/5 GEFS is not winter over as the broad trough with multiple embedded short waves covers N. AM with ridging near both coasts. Modeled ensemble EPO are nearly polar opposites by 336 hours. If you want some confidence in the GEFS EPO at 336 hours... take a look at this Relative Measure Of Predictability (RMOP) attached. Reds are above normal chance of verifying. The Blues below normal., So if you look at AK, the blues might end up warmer (ridging)... I sort of doubt that the 500MB heights will end up as a colder trough there...my thinking the error is that the GEFS heights are too low there. I always end with that I could be wrong-corrected but for now... am reluctant to be a downer. 14.4" Wantage as of 908A/5(keep an eye on 7-8 coastal... it should produce snow and ice near or just west of I95 RDU-ORH)

The flight left the gate 10 min late and in the air about 55 min late... had to be the ongoing hazardous conditions and necessary larger separations of aircraft in unsavory ice-snow conditions for safe take off-landings.

Wantage 4sw: Estimated 0.1" radial ice on branches... temp hovered near 30-31 most of the day and now at 430PM 29F, everything untreated is icing with freezing drizzle, snow grains and a bit of recent sleet. Roads in Sussex County, Sussex southward were good today-wet. Vernon-Highland Lakes looks like trouble from what I've seen in pics. I was in Sandyston near the Delaware and the Noon temp of 35 was well modeled by the high res, well in advance, while all the cold air banked up on the Kittatinny ridge just east of CR 653 Montague. Event total qpf at least 2.24". Walt 452PM

I have a family member to take off at 629P LGA. I advised yesterday to keep the plan and not cancel. Now I may regret that advise. Temp 32F at 3P there will only go down with intermittent on-going precip through about 11PM I think. This means deicing the aircraft and getting it off the ground right away if I read the precip and temp cards correctly. So the thread is of value and you have alot more info on how model problems develop and where errors can occur. 33 and rain is turning to ice for aircraft...which also prefer no long duration low level holds in this mixed thermal qpf environment. Wait til sundown when solar insolation disappears and the ground temp drops 2F and suddenly UNTREATED surface ice up quickly like the trees are during the day (Solar influence minimal for non leaved trees) . It's interesting.

Your writing has my full support and agreement. I hope others are noticing. What i do like about the GFS>GEFS is early hints, via 500MB, sometimes surface. NO QUESTION it has a cold bias in the boundary layer and does not model warm nose. No one probably noticed this but the Kittatiny ridge in nw NJ held back the ne inflow of subfreezing air in Sandyston-Montague so that at Noon it was 35 in Sandyston on CR 560, 32 at the Kittatinny ridge just west of Culvers Lake and 30 here in Wantage as I did my County work. Hand it to the high res mesoscale models including RGEM/HRDPS/NAM for seeing this well in advance!!! Your point about there FV3 has been shared by Jack Sullen and I agree. I am hoping the NAM (which is good up to 66-72 hour lead time for events), is extended beyond 2023. have no clue nor any whiff of influence. I for now, am not at all interested in FV3, ICON as winter time consistently accurate modeling.

Quick post: NCEP EMC knows about the GFS problems handling sleet and snow mixes as all snow at 10 to 1. They also know that this biases GFS snow depth and make the boundary layer too cold (also this mornings busted temps on the se edge of the freezing rain). May also be affecting the FV3 shorter range model seen in TT. All this in an 11AM WPC-EMC meeting yesterday. When it gets fixed? Do not know. They did not have enough ice event samples in 2019-20 to witness this as problem for the recently implemented GFS upgrade. Next: I like the pattern for Feb and if the SSW is real, could be a fun and interesting end to winter. All I know is that I won't end up with the 14.4" of snow so far this winter and could see a doubling or tripling by April 15 (especially if SSW) to get me to 40"? I suppose that's a long shot but Feb pattern and possible SSW offer a little hope. My concern is that the EPS weeklies do not seem to be doing well after 2 weeks, and I do not see a huge warmup in the east until we consistently lose the ridge in AK. Take a look at Feb 7-8: Some have given up, just as it's starting to look better. Could be NC to BOS near I95 period of snow or maybe a bit more than that? The 500MB pattern imo favors more events along the east coast with the cold trough straddling 80-85W for much of the month. As long as we keep getting 1045-55MB highs moving se out of W Canada, there is hope. Do NOT want to replace that consistently with low pressure. Will post ice accums when its over in the thread. Gotta work and expecting/hoping for a healthy grandchild #2 at Noon.

Wantage NJ 7A. Icing just starting now despite temp near32F since 4A. Total rainfall 1.95". No impact of any minor wooden/metal surface icing so far.

Water Equivalent is notoriously a troubling aspect of snowfall-especiallyASOS. CoCoRaHs observers know what to do but it's difficult. I'm sure snow ratios were at least 12-20 to 1, which brings up CP had .90" water equivalent and only 8.5" of snow. These reports need to be taken as general idea.

3.7" Wantage NJ close to final. Some cold folks in se MA where big time power outages. You all saw the 74MPH official at Nantucket. Haven't checked anything else. That's good enough for me. Good storm.

What follows is knowledge 4 hears ago, and I wonder if it's advanced very much since then. NWS uses snow ratios, usually in 3 hour increments... not a finished science but an attempt at improving upon standard 10 to 1's. They can break it down to 1 hr increments with the associated hourly qpf and weather grid. Then the automated conversions occur. VERY VERY busy within 72 hours of an event to try to get this right for the WFO, then to collaborate it among the adjacent WFO's and the WPC Winter Weather Desk at NCEP. They usually have 30-60 minute conference calls at about 1A/1P if multiple WFO's on a warning event (ECWS) for snowfall and when to trigger watch-warning process. It is my opinion that BOS, followed by PHI led the way from DE to New England. It is also my opinion that there is a conservative approach with so many millions of people involved in the Response. No one wants to be wrong. I do think the science has potential to advance (as this forum showed) for big ECWS beyond 60 hour watch process. It will help when the model science can show greater consensus further out. I think the GFS held the NWS and others from giving stronger alerts sooner. I also guess not much damage done on the shorter term alert. We won't know that behind the scenes EM/FAA discussions if they are required. NWS always looking to improve it's processes, but it's slow... So many folks tuning in to forums and other resources well before an event is officially acknowledged. Just the way it is... Have a good finish to the storm.

Nothing to add. Plenty of excellent info posters - model guidance shared among all. Just no time in my life. i started posting near the time of Covid furlough. That ended 10 months ago and this just takes too much time away from family etc. Excellent forum--- excellent contributions from all. Hope everyone is pretty aware how good the Canadian models were against everything, how woeful the GFS til 00z/28. Always need the Canadian on board for decent snow. EC wasn't too shabby either, with equally fortuitous prediction aka the GGEM. Have a day.

Just posting obs... keeping my FB group up to date but just don't have the time for all the effort needed for the forum. Enjoy the snowstorm.

All good as always. Thank you... 2.9" at 9A still snowing 1mi at 1022A

Wantage NJ (this part) yesterday 830-5P. Trace with probably 1/2" melting as it fell with daytime temps near 30. Moisture froze on untreated surfaces at sundown. Snow redeveloped around 9P and as of 6A a densely packed small flake snow of 2.5" so far, easy to remove.

So to wrap up the thread: Nice snow and ice event east Carolinas/Va with northern fringe Wildwood NJ and also a period of 1-5" ocean effect snow showers for se MA. That was part one. The fritter part was attached below... two minor events the 23rd, 24th mostly N of I80 as attached.

Attached last evening and the past two day totals. Click for clarity, if interested.

fwiw... small flake light snow showers on going here in Wantage NJ right now as mPing picks them up. 714P/24

Here is the summary for the minor 0.2" CP snow and general amounts of t-1/2" for the subforum late yesterday-overnight. Click image for clarity of amounts. Looks like tonights measurable snow stays generally along and north of I84. E LI might luck out with mixed rain snow toward morning.

This will be the thread for tonights Part two, whatever it is... I80 northward. I do think it will happen..maybe a slippery icy mess on n LI (r/zr/s mix). Column is cold enough for snow tonight, with the surface temp & lowest 1000 feet governing results for LI.

Looks like it's coming per 00z/24 ensembles (EPS/GEFS/NAEFS) and the storm all have been looking for. Biggest is for e LI/Eastern New England but several inches possible down I95 to Raleigh with even dustings possible ATL/AVL. Depends on processes as usual. WPC overnight chances of 3"+ are still only 10%, except 30% BOS. But these probs do not reflect the 00z/24 ensembles. It's still possible ensembles will shrink seaward, but the trend is your friend with 00z/24 op EC/UK/GGEM on board. Bottom line: thread looks more like a hit than a miss.

Wantage NJ 0.4" final for this Sunday evening event.

for what it's worth, we augered 12" ice thickness on Culvers Lake in Sussex County Nj to ice fish. At least we still can do that for another week to 10 days.

My scientific expectation is that we have after the initial burst now near NYC at 715P, is that modeling may not be handling this very well. Lapse rates will steepen overnight as the short wave crosses the region around 06-09z...and the associated wind shift from sw to n (sfc convergence generating bands of snow) slips southeast across NYC to LI and may show as an inverted trough (light ne wind north of the convergence zone). I have to think at least another band of accumulative snow is in store for the I80 region (ne PA, NNJ,,se NYS,sw CT/LI). That could double the current new snow on the ground for nwNJ/ne Pa./se NYS, partly because of snow ratios. You can see the bands organizing on BGM/SCE radar. Also, what happens after 1 AM to sunrise is not my confident call but models indicate that somewhere across LI a pretty good band of snow showers should occur. I won't be staying up for all this but hope that this brings at least a little satisfaction to the NYC group of members.

Wantage NJ 0.3" snow continues lightly. 25/23