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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    I probably will start a thread this evening or tomorrow morning for 18z Wed 2/19 -Fri morning 12z/21 20, pending 18z GEFS. 12z GEFS was lack lackluster and yet still could be right though I dont think so. Then the question becomes is much more than 4" and your start end times etc etc. Looks like powder to me embedded within a cold subfreezing week. WPC already has us in 10-29% chance 4". Also the thread for Saturdays roughly 1-maybe 3" LI/CP, heavier nw suburbs where ice will be problem too... that should begin at 7A Saturday, and will include damaging wind gust for 00z/17-00z/18 Sun night-Monday. Back later, Thanks for posts on modeling etc.
  2. wdrag
    That's what CoCoRaHs said...the surrounding datapoints look similar. I was in the Poconos this morning... their glaze at 2000' was twice mine from overnight (Wantage 0.05-0.08 radial), but essentially not damaging from what I could see nor anything posted in the NWS LSR's. Going to be more serious Saturday night-Sunday morning,
  3. wdrag
    Thanks all for your feedback... When I look at NY metro, I try not to get lost in the weeds... if CP is cold enough to snow, usually I think LI is, especially N shore with the various considerations of SST, depth of cold air hanging on at any point. I'm moving on, trying to be reliably close to what will occur. You're welcome to straighten me out-any time.
  4. wdrag
    Thanks for the briefing. Yay!
  5. wdrag
    As usual click for clarity... so for Feb about 30" so far in the Adirondacks and attached for I84 and NYC metro. Not bad... our Long Islanders northward hopefully continue relatively happy with Feb snow. Am pretty sure our ne PA/NNJ folks will catch up. Have a day...back at 530P.
  6. wdrag
    Past 24 hours snow and sleet totals... ending around 8A/13. Includes 0.1 CP and 0.2 Wantage. As usual click for clarity.
  7. wdrag
    fwiw: The basics so far in rainfall essentially the first 12 days of the month...heading for monthly 3.5-4"...pretty good for the GEFS way back around 1/31 (seen in Pivotal) Also added the 240 hr BOM snowfall.
  8. wdrag
    I reference CP in most of my posts... that's the heart of the city representing I think much of LI. If it goes good there, it usually, correct me if I'm wrong, it usually is pretty good for most of metro NY and northern LI.
  9. wdrag
    Not sure what you're reading but that's a 60%. chance for 1" NYC CP... even icing near NYC. Probably a pretty decent from end snow, the temps unlikely to get out of the upper 30s-lower 40s NYC on Sunday and potentially serious ice storm I84 hilly terrain with some damage. My concern is the gusty winds for the I84 corridor behind the storm Sunday night-Monday morning taking down ice laden limbs (snow laden well north of I84). OBS thread for Saturday event will probably post at 7AM Saturday. I may run it as an OBS thread for the front end wintry and then tack on wind damage for Sun night-Monday, and whatever Feb melted water equivalent totals you have for Feb at that time (through the 16th) in that thread.
  10. wdrag
    Not threading the20th yet but will recheck guidance af 5PM. Ensembles all have some snow, possibly. a snow storm.? Just too soon with the various possibilities but I'm planning on some snow acc for the NYC subforum. Also before that... might need an OBS thread for 50-60MPH winds gusts midday Monday but too soon to know if any wind past 50.
  11. wdrag
    Ensemble chance of 1+" of snow Saturday Noon-8PM, and the conservative ensemble chance of icing Saturday night. This situation is complex but looks dangerous to me for parts of the hilly areas of I84 where temps are going to struggle to rise above freezing this weekend. In the meantime, I think CP has a good chance of 1" of snow-sleet Saturday afternoon-evening, maybe even 2" if lucky. Now we're within 4" of the Feb normal at CP. All smalls but nice nonetheless.
  12. wdrag
    Exceedingly minor but CP did add another 0.1" last evening... monthly total now 6.2, within 4" of Feb normal. Not bad for the first 12 days.
  13. wdrag
    Wantage NJ: 0.2" snow-sleet yesterday 3P-mid, now a pretty heavy freezing drizzle. Salting roads just now. 30.7F glaze a few hundredths thick, estimating less than one tenth inch at 424AM/13
  14. wdrag
    yes, per 4PM OKXCLIJFK
  15. wdrag
    NO new thread for a wintry event 2/19-22 til late Thursday - 2/13 at the earliest or until ensembles come together again. Too chancy on a miss
  16. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 0.1" snow-snow pellets 3P-430P. 28/23 at 5P.
  17. wdrag
    Finals through 7A: 2/12/25 CP, LGA, EWR 1.5, JFK 1.8 ISP 1.9 DCA 6.4 BWI 3.8 PHL 3.1 ILG 3.4 ABE 1.0 ACY 7.8
  18. wdrag
    Am not doing anything for 19th-22nd until 6P today at the earliest... reasoning: I dont want to dump a thread on the subforum that ends up less than 1" CP. I see at least 2"+ for CP next week, but a little concerned about inside runner, since the strength of the short waves is in the northern branch (Great Lakes) which means we need redevelopers off DE and not convinced we can dig these troughs far enough south. Just want another ensemble view.
  19. wdrag
    Adding CoCoRaHs for this event, including qpf. Supplement ag will with prettier analysis and actual NWS PNS. Have a day-glad to see some appreciation for this winter. More coming the next 10 days including snowfall for CP as we try to get to our Feb normal of 10.1" Haven't checked on how much actually fell in this event through 7A for CP, PHL, BWI,DCA.
  20. wdrag
    Commack, Sayville reports among others at 3".
  21. wdrag
    I'll get a CoCoRaHs map up at 930AM which will be supplemented by other reports gathered by our group.
  22. wdrag
    Havent followed the Feb thread closely recently, but regarding Sat... please see attached. I saw only the posts this page and their snowy interest for Saturday afternoon is also mine. The plan is to start a tracking thread at Noon for an I95 snowstorm/event Feb 19-20, (maybe better than what just occurred). ALL 00z/12 Global Ensembles that we normally use, continue recent days suggestions. The idea as to get us over the Central Park 10.1" normal February snowfall... I think we're on our way. Finally: I think we have at least a wind advisory event Sunday night-Monday for much of the eastern USA, a period of 45-55 MPH gusts.
  23. wdrag
    Wantage NJ in far northern Sussex County... just had a few flurries-T, so far. I think we get some later this morning-evening. At 410AM have extended the headline into the second event since this reduces thread bounce, AND, I think that "parts" of our NYC subforum including LI, NJ, PA will see an additional few tenths of an inch of snow today with ice pellet very minor amounts this evening, and of course the obligatory icing well inland overnight. Don't be surprised at a little drizzle-freezing drizzle for LI and the NJ coast today. The additional snow may not stick very well during the daylight hours as temps rise. Still suggest cleaning the snowboard AT MOST once every 6 hours and see what you get. Thank you for all your shares. I am considering starting a separate 19th-20th snow storm-event thread late this morning.
  24. wdrag
    Over 6.5" in ACY per PHI CLI.
  25. wdrag
    OBS thread for Wed Noon-8A Thu wont issue (if needed) until late Wed morning, again if needed. Will rearview overnight. No extension of the current thread planned at this time, but monitoring if the weekend system trends sewd 100 miles. For now buying into the GFS/GGEM 12z/11 cycle without as yet a review of the 12z/11 EC.
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