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Everywhere under the rain shield per OKX/DIX/JFK/EWR radars its raining with up to 0.2" past 3 hours in se NJ. mPing would break helpful next 36 hours.

fwiw: gust up to 50 MPH Little Egg Harbor NJ. 3" limbs reported broken at 1055A vicinity Orange NJ per mPing. Unsure of the mPing report Follow NWS... coastal situation appears on previous NWS track.

Follow NWS warnings and statements... am asking for no message confusion from the non government mets. A serious problem is developing for the NJ/LI coasts. In my retired state...hype sometimes is valuable and I think for our coastal residents, it's warranted for mitigating adverse impacts this afternoon through Monday night. No significant changes in the p1 outlook or thread title... if anything the thread title might be too conservative? Operationally: am not relying on the 00z/12 EC...too slow. I think 00z/12 ECAI look is much better. Tides seem to be running almost 2' above normal now. Winds are gusting to gale force along the NJ coast southward to the Carolinas. Rainfall for the past 24 hours is sampled by climate sites attached. I will try at times to monitor and post reality, but have a celebration of life service this afternoon, and two grandchildren 3-5 years old tonight-Columbus Day. You all have it... I think it best to keep NWS messaging similar. If you individually want to ignore... that is your ultimate responsibility. Try not to put first responders in jeopardy. Thanks. 707A/12

Thread headline 425 PM Sat 10/11/25 adjusted with little change in expectations-potential from the Wednesday evening origination. Will check back Sunday morning. Little more that I can contribute.

So far most of LI/se NYS and NJ .01 to .24" since 6AM ish.

Comments: Strength of storm not dependent on Lowest Pres but pressure gradient (MB between high and low at least 1kt/mb-my own rule of thumb) Not sure of the average return interval for an October northeast wind coastal wind event of G50 MPH? This looks to be a bit above average nor'easter in winter taking into account: qpf, coastal flood and wind gusts impact on travel. We shall see what wind and water do for any power outages... tomorrow night Monday morning? Unknown. If there is tree branch on your car... or in the road. MINIMUM gusts NJ coast and s Coast LI should be 40-45 MPH per 12z/11 SPC HREF. Suggestion is to stay with NWS messaging and not confuse the issue-mislead. Preparedness can be important.

Will update headline for OBS for NWS Warned fairly powerful Nor'easter etc around 5PM. Keep the info flowing. all good.

Follow NWS warnings and statements. Probably a good idea to plan altnerate travel plans Sunday afternoon-Monday night. Air travel will be impact as well roads. Deeper bands of heavier gusty rains Sunday night-Monday morning then low top steady light-briefly mdt rain Mon afternoon-night. I could be in error on my take but what am prepared for in the NYC subforum. Am not exactly sure what is out by NWS. I think they have the CFWRNG's out, if not...going to happen, probably 3 cycles of MDT, possibly a major in there Monday-also dependent on the sub basins, especially packing in on the northeast wind. Follow NWS. Coastal flooding also will have a river runoff component at the interface between incoming ocean waves, wind, elevated water level and dealing with 1-3" of rainfall runoff attempt into the ocean-marshes etc. My guess is that the HWA will convert to warnings on the coasts, for sct G50-60MPH, with the warning approach from my view, exacerbated by wet coastal ground, uproots and fully leaved wet leaves breaking branches Sunday evening-Monday. Could see few g45 MPH western NJ/se NYS and CT as well Sun night-Monday morning. Isolated inland flood warning in NJ (Ocean-Monmouth) Monday morning???? if some of the outlier model 4-6" materializes. Rainfall dependent. Modeling and WPC has consistently highlighted Ocean and Monmouth counties for biggest rainfall past few days. WPC trimmed qpf slightly in its early morning forecast. I'm expecting a little more than what they have, similar to early yesterday's 10z/10 forecast. Back later in the day. Will convert headline this afternoon to add OBS, but do add OBS rainfall from today when it occurs.

Good Saturday morning everyone, I've no change to thread headline. Too much guidance argues against softening the implied results. Once our most reliable global models say its gone, then I'll grudgingly accept... but am glad to wake up to a modeled decent nor'easter on the way. I've checked latest SREF/BOM/as well as all global ensembles that we often use and am not buying into the weaker eastward Canadian/ICON/UKMET ensembles...though they are within the realm of possibility. Even today... anyone noticing sprinkles out there on LI or the NJ coast now... see radar. It's going to rain later on today in NJ/EPA (iso 0.1-0.2)...not everywhere but this is the first part of the instability burst aloft as PW increases, drawn northward by the sewd moving Great Lakes closed LOW at 5H/7H. Eventually we get a break tonight or tomorrow morning, then the real deal begins Sunday afternoon with max impact risk, I think Monday. Everything stated on p1 of this thread continues. Modeling wavers but overall... beneficial rain is coming with the mesoscale models later today forward helping focus where iso 4" occurs (for now preferably Ocean/Monmouth but it could be anywhere where persistent moderate rain occurs) with general persistent 850MB ELY inflow of 40-maybe 50KT Sunday-Monday.

Noting the 18z EC and ECAI OP holding the northern stream closed low entity stronger and longer likely negating a phase with the Se USA trof. Will reword-soften the headline if ensembles and 00z-06z/11 cycles continue similarly eastward. For now, I dont know how this resolves. Checking back tomorrow.

12z NAM as others have said previously this page: Heavy qpf is slated for our NYC subforum, especially e PA/NJ/LI..wind driven pelting rain. 12z NAM is more of a hugger so that can change but what I noted in that cycle... 7H FGEN shift northward well up into central New England Monday. They are going to get some decent mid level rain. I'm trying to attach the 850MB FGEN LOOP. Note a couple things: 850 FGEN trying to get sct showers going se NYS/NJ Saturday and then the big dump from 66hours on to 84 hrs... nearly stationary decent 850 MB FGEN with 70KT 850 MB easterly inflow band... no wonder spot nearly 8" near Toms River. Modeling will change but if indeed the 850 and 7H low are passing across the Delmarva...we get hit hard. Just want to make sure it doesn't fritter eastward. vertically stacked lows Delmarva to s NJ/s of LI are our sweet spot with heaviest qpf often spilling further nw than modeled. Now lets see what future cycles will offer as well as other modeling. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=temp_adv_fgen_850&runtime=2025101012&fh=84

fwiw: Average Return Interval on the 10z/10 WPC 72 hour FCST qpf... NJ coast every 1-2 years.

All the watches and alerts were posted by NWS yesterday afternoon (9th/20z). Not changing this headline. Am not thinking any different-likely not worse than posted. Will adjust this as an OBS thread tomorrow. BUT... if anything, am not seeing the kind of phaser that was implied approaching thread post time (740PM Wed eve). Ensembling suggests the Great Lakes closed low short wave is tracking a little too far northeast to completely phase with the southern trough... instead a weaker wet windy scenario with impacts but certainly no greater than the thread headline. There is still time for the worst case coastal hugger scenario but am thinking that this won't be quite as alarming... welcomed rain, a few power outages and certainly moderate coastal flooding for 1 to possibly 3 high tide cycles. While major is still possible, I think less chance of major than what I saw 2 days ago. Again... still a problem for the involved coastal communities. On tidal predictions: when you look at the various model predictions, the GEFS suite is worst, and associated with the more closer coastal hugger scenario. I now have to consider the NAM/EPS/ECAI scenarios of a little further east (00z/10 cycle trends) On tides: am not sure why a few folks are saying astronomically large departures---NOT TRUE. We're out of the full moon phase. Someone please clarify. So, a decent storm but unless modeling changes... am not changing headline as written and presuming everyone has enough information to plan/avoid/mitigate the coming adverse impacts. Will recheck late today...

Following up on your post: I took a look at SST anomaly at 12z/9 this morning. VERY warm departures and water temps right now SDHook, Entrance to NY Harbor around 68. I think we're talking fairly steep lapse rates in the BL Sunday-Monday permitting pretty decent downward transfer of gusts. Two graphics attached. Surface temps should be in the range of 57-63F on the NJ coast and probably LI north shore as well 18z Sun-18z Mon. That is cooler than the SST. Using 12z EC OP model sounding - I see what appears to me a fairly unstable lowest 50 MB. That is only the 12z/9 EC OP. (did not attach the sounding-its predictive and still 72-96 hours distant). We'll see how intense the wind fields evolve etc but needs to be monitored for watch/warn process and resultant water and power outage situation on the coasts. No coastal hugger, much less impact.

Still MUCH time for adjustments. The ensembles are all damped out out with variable solutions so believing an op cycle straightforward is not recommended. The EC OP is in the high end impact group with almost an eye circulation off Cape May come late Monday but for now, in the back of my mind but not barking it as the more likely solution. Someone mentioned the deformation zone as a potential area of concern for surprise high amounts. I am in agreement. Therefore am thinking along and north of the eventual 8H-7H circulation will be large, which eventually favors much of our area, especially NNJ-LI and not a big trim in s CT. Evolution uncertainty. Not upgrading to spot 6" amount in NNJ (Ocean County northwestward) but monitoring circulation development and staying as initially posted last several days and in this thread last evening. LONG ways away. Added 12z/9 NYHOPS tidal expectation at Sandy Hook as an example. The outlier is MAJOR. the more likely scenario at this 3-4 day juncture is MDT for at least one cycle at Sandy Hook, as exampled. Recent water level bias has been a couple inches one the low side of reality, from what I can tell. Checking back later this evening or tomorrow morning.

So far, outlooks for the season seem to be heavily biased on the negative side... as some will say, underperforming, for US hits. Still time of course.

Nor'easter coming Sunday-Monday though track uncertain ranging from coastal hugger e of NJ worst case scenario to further southeast and less impact. Graphics added are the Wednesday afternoon's WPC 5 day rainfall forecast ending 00z Tue 10/14, The WPC D5 concerns for excessive rainfall issued this Wednesday afternoon - Isolated 4" in the slight risk area but general 1-2" foreseen for much of the NYC subforum between 6AM EDT Sunday and 6AM Tuesday. Also added 4 successive 24 hr forecasts of the evolving 18z/8 GEFS 5H field which I hope repeats this winter... a phaser with a southeastward diving cold core strong short wave through the Great Lakes this weekend that ingests-draws northward - the moist trough currently developing along the se USA coast and results in a fairly intense storm along the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday. The EC EPS 24 hr max wind gust tool has been cyclically consistently offering 60+ MPH in the western Atlantic and 50+ MPH along parts of the NJ-LI coasts. If this occurs, in conjunction with heavy rainfall, fully leaved tree branches would break or even uproot in some locations. No guarantees on wind strength at this time The strong chilly high pressure system that is developing into our area now will become part of a eastern Canada block and set up a strong easterly gradient over our area and should result in multiple cycles of at least minor coastal flooding with a pretty strong potential for at least one high tide cycle moderate coastal flooding (even outlier LOW PROB spotty major) for either the midday Sunday or midday Monday high tide cycle along the NJ coast. Full moon is past us so the astronomical higher tide cycles are lowering and helps reduce the chance of more than moderate coastal flooding. Still this is 4-5 days away, so intensity, track and system evolution are not locked into a worst case scenario and will ultimately determine impacts. Erosion will occur...severity unknown. It appears the ECAI has been most cyclically stable predicting this storm for our NYC subforum dating back to I think the 00z/4 cycle. Did not look at standard deviations departures of the 850 MB inflow but suffice to say, its stronger that normal. PWAT generally near 1.5" minimizes potential for much greater than 4" though the 2" PWAT axis lies just offshore. Thread headline Original thread headline below, adjusted 422 PM Saturday 10/11 "Potentially" powerful Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain-especially south of I84, and fairly high impact sct coastal gusts 50+ MPH and possibly moderate or greater coastal flooding at the midday Sun and Monday high tide cycles. posted 741PM/8

Yes... I want to do some outside work while still daylight but all ensembles now on board, despite the 12z/8 CMCE OP OTS. widespread wind driven 1", iso MAX 4 12z Sun-12z Tue G 50-60 Mph LI NJ coasts, beach erosion, multiple cycles of at least MINOR CF, with potential for major NJ coast Sun and Mon highest tide cycles. Probably start it around 8P.

SUBTROPICAL low for the e coast this week-early next week? Will this get some sort of NWS identity in the very near future if modeling continues on course (GFS/EC). ? This is where NWS-NHC step in. I accept their definition. It is tropical moisture late this week unleashed by a developing cold core aloft (7h-5h as example this weekend) and the cold air bordering the system to the west and north. . I've been out of NWS since 2018 but this might get an identity of some sort. Little question in my mind regarding potential high impact along the coasts for LI-NJ southward and maybe across to the SNE coast? I just want ECAI which has been consistent cyclically for an event since the 06z/4 cycle (see trop tidbits for `12z Monday Oct 13)

.44 here in Wantage midnight-6A.

This is where NWS-NHC step in. I accept their definition. It is tropical moisture late this week unleashed by a developing cold core aloft (7h-5h as example this weekend) and the cold air bordering the system to the west and north. NWS OKX (or elsewhere) step in. I've been out of NWS since 2018 but this might get an identity of some sort. Little question in my mind regarding potential high impact along the coasts for LI-NJ southward and maybe across to the SNE coast? I just want ECAI which has been consistent cyclically for an event since the 06z/4 cycle (see trop tidbits for `12z Monday Oct 13)

Just waiting on 06z EPS/EPSAI... looks good, in large part due to shortwave diving se through the Great Lakes late this week forcing a closed low there, then ingesting the separate southeastern USA 5H trough-rain area. Doesnt look like a tropical system to me but a pretty strong nor'easter Noon Sunday-Noon Tuesday. 1-4" NJ/LI w G 50-60 MPH, power outages from fully leaved tree branches breaking, and coastal flooding Sun-Mon high tide, with potential for one of these midday high tide cycles MDT coastal flooding (low prob spot Major). Less impacts CT/NYS but still beneficial. Canadian is a no show so far and I do want to see EC AI become bigger again. Still a chance the brunt escapes s NJ-Delmarva.

Dont think this will miss but will wait til the 06z/8 cycles are in tomorrow morning to start a thread for 1-4" of rain NJ/LI and less north with G 50-60 MPH coast Monday. ECAI I think will go back solid hit by tomorrow morning. If it does not, then will leave this as a general 0.1-1.5" rain and no thread. I think a clue to further N is the 12z/7 GEFS showing the closed 5H low starting in the Great Lakes Sat night and then it may become the dominant driver instead of further S. Something I'm watching but not yet completely sold. I'm prepared for periods of rain here in nw NJ 18z Sun-18z Tue...something like that. gotta run and cut the summer cone flowers.

12z/5 ECAI looks like the outlier now as 12z-18z/5 global trend is south or nil for Sun-Tue. If this ends up nil, it would undermine my confidence in the still consistent soaking EC AI. Waiting it out a day or so.

Back from a week in the PAC NW (SEA-SFO). Seeing cyclic consistency in the EC-AI op strong nor'easter hit since 00z/5 (6 consecutive cycles). EPS EPS AI gaining confidence (50-60 MPH gusts potential coastal spots s LI and NJ, as well as 1-4" rain). BUT as noted previously by others, a little early to be sure though WPC D7 QPF has accepted the likelihood of a significant storm. BOM has not. Also duration of event is in doubt from a decent 18 hr hit to a lengthy 60 hour event. Too soon for a thread but many are monitoring. Have a day and will recheck tomorrow morning.