wdrag

I "think" Epsilon gets named within 48 hours. Here's some prelim multi-model intensity guidance and EPS tracks. Bermuda area. I think this is the first publicly available non NHC specific ensemble= guidance. Use your best judgement. Last I checked today, Tropical Phase Cyclone guidance suggested warm core symmetric for this. Let's see what happens. No matter, I'm leaving any topic naming on this forum and all the tropical details of intensification/track/broadening coverage to our group participants, since I'm no tropical expert. I just like that the models have been onto this for quite awhile.

NHC up to 60% on the Bermuda storm (Epsilon?) at 2P/16. This one apparently will probably stay out there vicinity Bermuda before taking off northeast after the 22nd?

Just for fun: I've finally found the LR GEFS wave and wind forecast site for the Atlantic. Graphic below is for chance of wave heights above 12 feet around 10/25. This is accomplished without the 00z/16 OP contribution from (?Zeta? = Cuba-FL vicinity). Note the sw Atlantic. I checked Cyclone Phase Analysis and Forecasting for the Bermuda - Central Atlantic storm of 20-23... its warm core on all models. To me, that suggests a named storm eventually. Probs slowly coming up on the TWO. SST may be a little marginal in the initiation area but if it does slip southwest for a while, it may move over more favorable ocean heat. Also, SST continue a bit above normal se USA coast and e GMEX and anomaly is tending to depart positively a bit there.

Good Friday morning everyone, I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27. Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to trend recently. If not, then no problem. 00z/16 NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical. Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 657A/16

8PM NHC post tonight... 00z/15 issuance. All very low probs so I'll defer to the eventual reality... something potentially to look at between the 19th-27th.

Good Wednesday morning... It's now 4 days since the GEFS was signaling two new TC's in the 17th-26. CAVEAT: I'm NOT-NOT A TROPICAL EXPERT. All i do is read the models-ensembles-trends, realize pattern recognition generally adds value and then use all the experts surrounding us (Including here and other forums) and go from there. I also try to account for the possibility of modeling expectations to fail---i.e. NO storms. That said... Whether a TC-hybrid comes up the E coast ???? timing timing timing with the primary trough reforming eastern USA next 2 weeks. What I'm 80-90% confident of is one, probably two Tropical Cyclones in the week of the 19th-26th in the tropical Atlantic (Epsilon, and Zeta). This was first developing as an option on the GEFS ~ Oct 10th 00z-06z cycle. The GGEM is now grabbing onto the first s of Bermuda around the 20th. The EC has something too, and in the operational cycle brings it nw to the se USA coast by the 24th. However the 00z/14 EC ensembles progress west and then have a difficult time figuring out two storms (one heading west toward FL, the other moving north from s of CUBA). The GEFS continues strong on the second storm and tracking uncertain. SST continue above normal near the FL coast (below normal near Bermuda and w GMEX due to prior storms upwelling). 00z/14 NAEFS has some idea but undefined right now... My "guess" is in a day or two, NHC TWO will latch onto the first disturbance heading w toward the region s of Bermuda- the latter TC disturbance may not be defined for another 5 days---? Experts should comment here on MJO favorability for the tropical 19th-26th?? (I'm also not an expert on the MJO impacts) I've submitted this for critique on the tropical forum looking for some contrary expertise. My take for my own use: If I had a choice--I'm not taking a cruise between Bermuda and Key West between the 19th-26th. I don't need to deal with the pitch and roll of a rough sea. (Did that on FAMFLOAT with the NWS back in the early 90s and it wasn't a TC--just a winter storm). 1115A/14

Since it's a big year, am looking ahead with proximity to the USA East coast and GMEX. Epsilon and Zeta appear on the "modeling" horizon in both the GEFS/EPS members between the 17th-26th. The current NHC outlooked 20% chance is not included, though not ruled out. Added only GEFS/EPS member sampling next weekend, with more members showing up in the week thereafter. Eastern GMEX-FL coast still above normal SST. Closed this post with a 10 day outlook for DELTA members (06z/SEP 27).... that tended to be closer to FL for 06z/7, but had a few near the Yucatan. Overall modeling cues seem to be improving, I think.

Modeling: Overall last 72 hours...which model performed best? and then prior to 72 hours on initiation of DELTA?

Hi! I add this for October per some tweets I just saw... credit to the authors listed. I trust. 229P/24

Did anyone notice a very recent tweet from Eric Blake? I can't access this on trop tidbits, but credit goes to Eric Blake, also apparently just promoted to Senior Hurricane Forecaster there. After August 20 a big change in shear across the Atlantic Basin. It's an excellent hint at changes to come around the normal time of basin increase. I can delete this post if you wish. Just caught my attention on trop tidbits. I can't move the loop over to this forum but credit Trop Tidbits-Levi and Eric Blake. Really nice illustration of before and after the Madden-Julian Oscillation passage in the Atlantic from the GEFS-parallel. Note the initial high shear (red) in the deep tropics, then the late Aug transition to lower shear (blue) through the first part of Sep @TropicalTidbits @EricBlake12 · 40m Really nice illustration of before and after the Madden-Julian Oscillation passage in the Atlantic from the GEFS-parallel. Note the initial GIF

Agreed... though one positive for the early Euro on Isaias... it sensed a struggle from start up to ~FL...in other words it was so weak it kind of knew conditions were not very good. That's my take away when models disagree, especially longer range=caution. That's one reason was very broad in the NYC forum topic starter outlook. Didn't want to overplay the hand.