wdrag

37 MPH in Wantage NJ at 105AM. Max so far here.

Interesting next 3 hours NYC area and LI. Cell mergers... Intense rainfall in a few spots with 1" and maybe some pea sized hail and gust 40-50 MPH. Something to watch for as your modeled available CAPE looks decent. Also, whether this verifies, unlikely...but the HRRR is producing a near svr gust in Ulster County around 05z. Kind of late at night but i see a second band overnight. 643P/17 thunder and rain.

Passing this on to those who can access digital VIL.. if we you get a value over 35, specially for 2 or 3 scans... look for hail. We have some hail up here in Sussex County around 535PM, Frankford Township...size unknown. That was also our first thunder of the day here in Wantage, despite two previous shower episodes. Now at 623P... total rainfall .20. Not like some stripes of heavier showers over an inch. I see a decent storm approaching Manville NJ and radar does detect small hail from that one.

Tropical page is beginning to become active... does look interesting middle and end of next week up to at least 35N. I didn't say "promising" but for me, interesting in the form of moisture 27th-29th. We'll see how long this is worth monitoring for our area? 10 days out, should say enough for the uncertainty. 423P/17

Wantage NJ 25 MPH gust 202P with the group of showers. Seeing healthy rains in a few spots of ne PA including up to .96" so far near Dingmans. Should get more interesting vicinity White Plains, EWR, NYC, DXR 4P-10P.

Here is the wrap from my perspective, using CoCoRaHS and radar best estimate (2 day since it's 12z-12z). CoCoRaHS TWO DAY I don't think works correctly on some of the stations, either that or the reporting posting mechanism may have some sort of cumulative error. So for CoCoRaHS I used the one day, but some rain occurred prior to the ~12z/16 reports and is not included on this map. AND, the radar sensor blend, please ignore extreme w Orange County westward to n of Scranton and sw NYS when all that occurred Saturday. In Summary...you can see two bands pretty clearly, one from the Philly area into nw NJ to near HFD. A second band from Ocean County across Suffolk. Had this been mostly snow, it would have been a widespread 6-12 hour advisory event with pockets of Warnings, especially Ocean and Suffolk counties. The EC and UK Operational runs were terrible for our NYC forum area until the 00z/16 cycle. The EPS finally started picking up on something with the 12z/15 cycle. The NAM was too heavy, especially near I80, but it was the one that suggested to me that two bands were going to develop. Placement is never 100% accurate but the NAM had enough idea for us to discuss except NYC (less than 1/2" there). The NAM 06z/16 cycle was a miserable failure less than 5 hours prior to the start. In the end, if we can blend all the models, we get some sort of muted idea of what should happen, without the extremes. It is unusual that the EC/UK models didn't have much of an idea of what would happen til the 00z/16 cycle. Timing start: Most models were too slow. NAM was the best, I thought. Timing end: It appeared to me the models were bit too slow in ending the qpf. 1123A/17

No topic on svr for the 5PM-midnight time frame in our area, especially CT, vcnty NYC and LI but to me it continues to look pretty good. CAPE arrives a little late in the day but with the wind at 500MB increasing and multimodels showing increasing convection in the 6P-11P time frame, not sure why it won't happen. You're welcome to add the reasons it won't. For now no topic til we see how this evolves this afternoon. I'm looking for several svr reports in our area late today or this eve. The second trailer batch between midnight and 4am may have gusty winds but should not be quite as strong as that of the 6P-8P time frame. 1044A/17

Good Monday morning, No topic yet for late today, but still looks pretty good to me for isolated svr 4P-10P. SPC has nothing for most of our area so will await their 13z update before a possible topic post.

NYC forum imo, still looks good for isolated severe 4P-10P Monday, with a secondary band of gusty showers-iso thunder around midnight-3AM Tue. No topic. SPC D2 no longer has marginal risk. So they are seeing something I'm not as CAPE, 500 MB wind, KI, time of day in a low 80s max temp environment look decent to me for a marginal risk. 509P/16

Minor .01 additional amount for Wantage NJ in sw moving low top wind driven drizzle-light rain around 445P. Total a meager .08 but we'll take it.

0.07 Wantage and probably ended up 1/2" too high on all I80 south expectations. Will post CoCORAHS map around Noon Monday. Still, had this been winter... the modeling problem was excessive at 24 hours (18z/15) and even the 06z/16 NAM was poor-reversing it's excesses of the 15th to very low qpf values for today. Difficult to understand such a lack of agreement in the very short term (non convective driven).

So far as of 1030AM attached, NJ only. Back edge of the w NJ steady band will progress east of I95 by evening but low top junk drizzle sprinkles will sweep west into w NJ this afternoon. Biggest rains after 2P should shift to all of LI Am okay with the two bands through 2P, thereafter we should see some sort of merger NYC eastward. Added MARFC fall analysis last 12 hours. seems a little shy in Ocean County.

All good and on target for most of our area. Doing much better in se NYS and nw CT than anticipated yesterday. already 1/2-1.1" southern Ocean County. Plenty more to come. 924A/16

Rain delays of ball games in nw NJ til it ends late morning in Sussex-Warren counties. .07 in Wanateg but already around 0.2 in Warren County near Hackettstown.

Good Sunday morning all, Looking beyond the topic'd developing nor'easter for our I84 area southeastward, SPC continues D2 marginal risk for severe for our area. No topic til late afternoon since we're on-going with one event and small timing issues are developing for later Monday-Monday night. I am now having to think two bands of scattered gusty showers-thunderstorms...one mid Monday afternoon and the other around midnight to 3 am Tuesday. The afternoon would probably be more likely to produce a few severe, but I think the one overnight might surprise as it has quite a bit of KI/cooling 500MB temps and leftover CAPE to work with, along with a pretty decent 500mb jet/vort max coming through. The 22nd-24th (yesterdays's 23rd), looks interesting for a couple bands of heavy showers/thunderstorms. 649A/16

As we awake, it looks like the EC/UK have admitted to decent 1/2"+ rain for LI/NJ and the 06Z NAM says, I'll be the exceedingly dry EC/UK of many past cycles. WPC D1 is a good start and a bit less than my expectations from yesterday. I stay with yesterdays topic starter, except the sharp cutoff on the northwest side may end up somewhere interior se NYS extreme nw CT. In other words further nw than evaluated yesterday. Banding of heavier showers s definitely occurring through early afternoon and whether I targeted the heaviest axis properly, is up for debate but it all merges into one every nice summer nor'easter late today...a nasty afternoon-evening for LI and the NJ shore. You'll also note contribution from the warm Atlantic waters in the form of low top showers moving ashore (westward) this morning, beneath the mid level northeast moving rains. Pretty impressive for summer, I think, in terms of the mixed cyclonic system event. For what it's worth .04 here at our house in Wantage so far, since it began ~330A. I will post again at times today. 637A/16

Is tropical tidbits up and running? If so, will delete this post. Just need a check. Seems to be a slow load for me.

Hi! Decided to start the topic. It would be for rainfall reports primarily, and easing of some recent dryness in a few spots of our forum. FF not likely except maybe southern Ocean County? Lesser flood advisories would probably occur for poor drainage urban flooding Sunday near NYC (IF I'm reading this right?) 1.5"+ qpf differences in operational solutions through the 18z/15 (Saturday) with the EC/UK/HRRR op runs very-very light while the NAM continues furthest north with the 1+". Preliminarily I see a very sharp cut off of rainfall somewhere from Sussex County NJ northward or I84 ~HFD. Suspect two bands of heavy rain in our area...one maybe along I80-I78 corridors thru LI (deformation mid level FGEN ~700 MB in the morning-afternoon, then LI getting the direct storm additional contribution during Sunday evening). The second band across southern Ocean County NJ. This is a best estimate based on modeling. There will be error. The northern band narrow, but widespread 0.5 to a few pockets of 2". The drier zone just south of that band in Monmouth to near I195 Trenton, then the other band over southern Ocean County in the 1.5-3" zone. E Suffolk County total from both daytime deformation FGEN and evening storm 1.5-3". My guess is much of interior se NYS doesn't receive much if any rain and maybe Sussex County too, while we watch some pretty decent bands along I80 or I78? If it's any consolation...the 12z GEFS is a tick higher for NJ/LI and as far north as it's been since the 18z/14 run with 1" skirting the s coast of LI. It's broad output so doesn't get into the banding etc. The 12z EPS is noticeably heavier than the 12z EC operational and about 1/2" shy of the GEFS for LI. I think there is enough information to see a dismally damp midday-evening for much of NJ/LI and some decent rainfall. I think definitely wetter than the 12z SPC HREF. If anything, this a model contest trying to understand reality today and the associated modeling, with the follow through for Sunday. Compromise is always best realizing the downside of forecasting too heavy too far north. 436P/15 (I do not plan to post anymore until Sunday morning - have to ride it out now).

Looking at reality vs modeling: Someone tell me that this will fade to the EC/UK dry solutions. VERY difficult to believe. In the end I think I'll work some sort of 12z-18 NAM HRDPS mix to this. Looks impressive to me...moderate rain into southern PA at 1830z. Will check 18z NAM and then try to figure it out different than already posted earlier this afternoon. I do see the UK/EC doing so well with this system, certainly not off to a very good start. 313P/15

Too much uncertainty. Looks nasty except no 12z UK yet, and the EC has very little going. For now, I think 700MB FGEN is driving showers in southern PA and it looks to me like a decent event is coming I80-LI southward BUT with lots of uncertainty. The differences in the modeling has to be related to initialization-sensitivity but I'm not the one to know for sure. I do think this is highly unusual to have so vast a difference in the 24 hour time frame. NOT good for the science. Take a compromise. Not posting a topic, as yet. 219P/15

Decided to wait, til 230 or 430. IF 12z EC and UK stay south, I have to wait til the 18z NAM. For now, preliminarily I see a very sharp cut off of rainfall somewhere from Sussex County NJ northward or I84 to about HFD or just west of HFD. Suspect two bands of heavy rain in our area...one maybe along I80-I78 corridors thru LI (deformation zone in the morning-afternoon, then LI getting the direct storm additional contribution during Sunday evening). The second band across southern Ocean County NJ. The northern band narrow, but widespread 0.5-2". the drier zone just south of that band in Monmouth to Trenton, then the other band over southern Ocean County in the 1-3" zone. E LI total from both daytime deformation FGEN and evening storm 1-3". My guess is much of interior se NYS doesn't receive much if any beneficial rain and maybe Sussex County too, while we watch some pretty decent bands along I80 or 78? That's my early take. Can adjust northward tonight or Sunday morning if modeling evidence and reality support. Should we topic? It would be for rainfall reports primarily, and easing of some recent dryness in a few spots of our forum. FF not likely except maybe southern Ocean County? Lesser flood advisories would probably occur for poor drainage urban flooding Sunday near NYC (IF I'm reading this right?) 127P/15 at 131P: If it's any consolation...the GEFS is a tick higher for NJ/LI and as far north as it's been since the 18z/14 run with 1" skirting the s coast of LI. It's broad output so doesn't get into the banding etc.

It's been on and sometimes off and certainly yesterdays 12z/14 cycle was less than 0.2" and the overnight 00z/15 cycle had about 0.6" NNJ and less LI. That inconsistency, the UK through 00z/15 being bereft of QPF and 00z/15 GEFS/EPS trends weren't helpful in an early, yes it will happen commit. However, no matter what happens at 700mb, the 12z NAM 850 FGEN axis promises 1 to possibly near 3" qpf, at least in the far southeastern part of our forum area (Ocean County and Suffolk). Am leaning to a topic, with the understanding that it's modeling and no guarantee. Prefer another couple of hours to await some other modeling information.

So the 12z NAM is decidedly back north with 2" parts of NJ and LI, NAM 3k still s by Ocean County. Might start a topic midday based on more model trends. Topic not so much for Flooding but more so for some parts of our area getting a needed 1-2" Difficult to ignore the 12z/15 NAM but also difficult to believe the 700 flow configuration it has for 12z in NNJ. No decision til at least Noon, prefer 230P.

12z/15 NAM compare: Continues a deformation zone (try at a 700Low near 180), excellent RRQ 250JET in Northern New England for qpf up to LI and much of NNJ, separate from VA low. Just wonder if a 700low can form near I80 tomorrow morning? No action at this time.