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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Looking back: Original post Tue... too slow by 12 hours and no freezing rain. Rest OK. Had general 0.3-0.9" rainfall se NYS, ~1/2"extreme nw NJ otherwise widespread 1-2" there in NJ, also LI and CT. Will post complete CoCoRAHS summary qpf and snowfall tomorrow, around 1PM. This morning's expectations (my own): Wind gusts were 5 knots less than expected, no Thunder occurred. ECMWF Kuchera and all 10 to 1 ratios I think in general were too high especially valleys. I think snow ratios need to be taken into account when thinking of amounts. Accordingly power outages not as high as expected from combined snow and wind or wind alone. None of these elevation snows are easy: Other than the one day of extreme west modeling solutions, the overall modeling guided the main impact areas pretty good... For our NYC forum..a routine event, with knowledge that this is the fourth decent storm in the past 3 weeks (Nov 11-15, Nov 30, Dec 5). 759P/5
  2. wdrag
    Presume that is 9.8? Thanks... I like the 7 to 1 snow ratio. NWS and/or others may analyze differently but for SNE it seems ballpark to me.
  3. wdrag
    Noticed...must be a staffing problem or some other reason.
  4. wdrag
    Looking back: Original post Tue... too slow by 12 hours and no freezing rain. Rest OK. Had general 0.3-0.9" rainfall se NYS, ~1/2"extreme nw NJ otherwise widespread 1-2" there in NJ, also LI and CT. Will post complete CoCoRAHS summary qpf and snowfall tomorrow, around 1PM. This morning's expectations (my own): Wind gusts were 5 knots less than expected, no Thunder occurred. ECMWF Kuchera and all 10 to 1 ratios I think in general were too high especially valleys. I think snow ratios need to be taken into account when thinking of amounts. Accordingly power outages not as high as expected from combined snow and wind or wind alone. None of these elevation snows are easy: Other than the one day of extreme west modeling solutions, the overall modeling guided the main impact areas pretty good... For our NYC forum..a routine event, with knowledge that this is the fourth decent storm in the past 3 weeks (Nov 11-15, Nov 30, Dec 5). 752P/5
  5. wdrag
    Thanks John... helpful! Hope NWS has the reports other than your 3.5. Talk soon. Walt
  6. wdrag
    Thanks... not seeing any reports of this. Unsure whether BOX has the reports, or they're short staffed? Thank you for this!
  7. wdrag
    Checking back in: Recent 3 hours max gusts at working ASOS's etc. KACK: Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KAUG: Augusta, Augusta State Airport, ME, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KGHG: Marshfield, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KHYA: Hyannis, MA, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KLGD: La Grande, OR, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMQE: East Milton, MA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] (I saw a MQE 50 kt also...) KMVY: Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KMWN: Mount Washington, NH, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KPVC: Provincetown, MA, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KPYM: Plymouth, MA, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KRKD: Rockland / Knox, ME, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KTTD: Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KUUU: Newport, Newport State Airport, RI, United States [42kt, 22m/s] Power outages: overall as of ~545P, and then broken down by state. Note: Wet snow the primary culprit but se MA has a fair amount from wind. Snow amounts so far look general 2-5" in the interior of SNE. 8" near BOW NH.
  8. wdrag
    Power outages minor so far...
  9. wdrag
    snowfall reports posted by the NWS so far. 2PM ish.
  10. wdrag
    Last 30 Miinutes: MA POWER. Meter outages jumped from 4 to 18K. Many reports g40 KT now from se MA through srn RI and extreme se CT.
  11. wdrag
    Winds past 3 hrs: max G KGON: Groton/New London, CT, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMQE: East Milton, MA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMTP: Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPVC: Provincetown, MA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KPVD: Providence, RI, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPYM: Plymouth, MA, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KUUU: Newport, Newport State Airport, RI, United States [40kt, 21m/s]
  12. wdrag
    Snow amounts: I know our Burlington CT observer. SOLID. I expect power outages to begin ramping up between 2-4P. ORH a minisucle 1200 out now... We'll see where that ends up.
  13. wdrag
    Looks to me like OKX radar is setting up what will probably be the primary bands arcing northward from central LI thru ORH... vicinity Brookhaven I91 in CT thru I84 to ORH. Somewhere along there, there should be a very good snow response. Let us know if any thunder. Thanks.
  14. wdrag
    Wantage NJ, my final rain I think will be 0.51. Sun peeking out. MAX G so far 28 MPH around 1135A.
  15. wdrag
    Excellent reports all: kind of surprised so soon coasts but all the better for highlighting instability and dynamic cooling. Vernon NJ is ahead of me on any snow...am too low and still too warm.
  16. wdrag
    Wow... have to like it.
  17. wdrag
    Think winds have just about maxed NJ coast... they have another hour or so to get to G 40 kt.
  18. wdrag
    Really... better than us in Sussex County...just drove up to High Point. All rain.
  19. wdrag
    10:22 am EST - 12/5/2020GARDNER, MASnow2.0 INCH 10:24 am EST - 12/5/2020HOLDEN, MASnow2.0 INCH
  20. wdrag
    Radra scope viewers... think I'm getting a decent band of snow into e Monroe and Pike counties of PA...at least for elevations. It's narrow, brightening (phase change) and I suspect some 1 mi snow in there. We'll see if and when it crosses NW NJ around 930-1030A.
  21. wdrag
    For the record: Let's see what happens. This is about 815AM power outages nationally... none. Will be curious where we are around 4P.
  22. wdrag
    Adding for the record PRIOR to any problems.
  23. wdrag
    Very good- thanks.
  24. wdrag
    Some of this bright banding... WET-icy snowflakes---greater reflectivity. That tells you a change in precipitation phase for awhile The banding S+ i think may be a little softer but yellow or greater band(s) later on.
  25. wdrag
    Notre on my caution: This is changing faster than I thought at elevation. It may go back and forth for a while but my amounts may be too conservative at elevation... It is going to pound for a while late this morning-afternoon up there.
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