wdrag

Good Thursday morning everyone, Feb 25: Am running 45 minutes late. Focus is the I84 corridor As a friend said yesterday, winter's back is broken. No large scale hazardous wintry events foreseen through March 2nd. However...3AM - 10AM Saturday (27th), a 1-4 hour period of wet snow will probably occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain around or after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping. No obs thread, unless modeling shifts a little closer to NYC (within 10 miles). Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. A complex rain (spotty ice) possibly change to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1, but for now models say proceed with normal life. As you know, GFS modeling is drifting away from its excessive cold outbreak Monday night and leaves the door open for a little more than meets the eye (so far). I might be completely wrong for this period, regarding a wintry event occurrence but the door for me, is not yet closed. March 3-6: Uncertain modeling is gravitating toward an event that may include several inches of hazardous snow for the I84 corridor northward. Timing etc? No thread. EPS like's it. GEFS seems to be drifting in that direction. NAEFS noddy yet responding. 652A/25

Yesterdays (2/23) wet snowfall, much of it melting as it fell to the ground, except highest elevations.

Wednesday morning 655AM update: Title remains unchanged. May need to add a bit of ice for the interior in future reviews. Multiple model ensemble reviews of the 00z/24 cycle and 06z/24 GFS and V16 op reviews. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Still uncertain. A complex potential significant rain to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1 with significant hazardous high terrain accumulations of several inches I84 itself northward, while much less impact in the valleys below 700 feet elevation (Hartford, Poughkeepsie, Scranton). A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night (but not the GFS op ferocity which doesn't have much support). This for me is the 00z/24 consensus from NAEFS and 06/24 V16. Definitely not buying the GFS powerful cold shot preempting an event. I could be wrong but I see enough cold air seeping into the backside of whatever comes out of the Ohio Valley to make for a snow risk. It could even snow down to LI/I78 at the tail end (low chance for now, but a window that needs to remain open). It's complex and details remain tbd. It's possible I've read too much into this thread?? Considerations include WPC continues rather dry and very little wintry weather risk.

Good Wednesday morning Feb 24, Have posted nw suburbs thread since this nuisance negligible event appears focused for only high terrain of an inch or so Saturday morning before a change to rain/melting. Might provide a bit of a minor slippery slushy hazard untreated surfaces before sunrise Saturday nw of I287, i.e. nw NJ hills/ne PA Poconos and interior se NYS toward the Catskills, and possibly Litchfield County, northern Fairfield County CT. Small possibility of an obs thread if snow occurs as some modeling tries to do to within 10 miles of NYC, but for now... not counting on that thread. This one would suffice, if this does minor snow occurs. Probably good to monitor NAM/RGEM cycles for consistent trends-if any. And the GFSv16 too, if you have access thru Pivatol Weather. V16 may be available elsewhere? If so, please share. COD?

Good Wednesday morning everyone, Feb 24: The 00z-06z/24 impressions regarding on-going threads but think focus has to be primarily the I84 corridor. No graphics. No large scale 6+" snowstorms foreseen through March 2nd, and possibly through March 11. Saturday morning (27th). A period light snow will occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford (including se NYS) early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Still uncertain. A complex potential significant rain to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1 with significant hazardous high terrain accumulations of several inches I84 itself northward, with the valleys below 700 feet elevation much less impact (Hartford, Poughkeepsie, Scranton). A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night.

Wantage at 740'MSL Nice snow this morning but only T. Melted as it fell to the ground. 34F. Roads wet.

The CoCoRaHs snowfall. May be a little suppressed se edge where rain was involved?? and in overall slight settling of the wet snow pack since snow ended late yesterday and some of these obs may only be 1x/day per life. There was some offshore lightning late yesterday.

3/4S- in Wantage. Roads wet. SB 955A. 34/30.

624A/23 - Tuesday: Incorporates modeling of ensembles through 00z/23, and op models through 06z/23. Maintain patience. A significant event is probably coming including some snow for I84 and possibly to NYC's immediate n/w suburbs. EPS/GEFS trending a fairly significant decline in AO/NAO first couple of days in March (think this an EPS concession to the GEFS, as i recall). GEFS has significant snow for the Virginias on the 2nd. That is a sign something is coming, with latitude axis of snowfall in doubt. I favor further north, per NAEFS. Also, the 06z/23 GFS op not given any weight in my thinking since its prediction for the NYC 1000-500MB thickness 06z/2 is 240 m less than the V16. (504 op vs V16 528 for NYC). Sensitivity between northern southern stream interactions is probably messing up solutions and so uncertainty. It either snows a bit late 28, or what i think is more likely is some snow late March 1-morning 2. EC wants to snow the 3rd. Therefore, no change in thread.

Will add CoCoRaHs summary maps for yesterday, late this morning or midday, when time.

543A/23 -Tuesday. Incorporated 00z/23 ensembles and modeling through 06z/23... suggests maintaining some vigilance for a period of Saturday morning snow, probably Trace- as much 4" for the I84 corridor Saturday morning. Multiple modeling has that option. LI/NYC probably rain but may briefly start as wet snow? WPC is trying to keep us dry but i don't think that will work. My concern for a minor snow event are how close to NYC (mainly w of 287?) or possibly a little closer. There will have been a freshening of the cold prior to this pulse of WAA which will be reflected with a small mid Atlantic coastal low. Want to wait this out til the morning of the 24th to be more definitive. Modeling is all over the place and thermal profiles marginal, as so many. No ensemble prob graphic since WPC has little or no qpf (less than 0.10").

Good morning, It's Tuesday the 23rd. Expect a period of snow showers in the nw-ne suburbs toward midday. Elsewhere for NYC/LI & s of I-78, rain or possibly rain/mixed snow showers early this afternoon. No accumulation NYC CP eastward and southward, however 0.1-0.7" possible in a few hilly areas well northwest and north of the city. Essentially harmless, with probably no street hazard, other than what one might expect in a rain shower. This is associated with a strong wave passage. mPing should be somewhat active between 10A-4P.

So, hello again. We don't have to put this thread to bed. Think it will become active again Tuesday with small accumulations of generally 0.1-1" around the city, maybe not in CP? but certainly across NJ and probably se NYS, even CT, and may extend into earlyTuesday night as a strong short wave crosses the region along with a wind shift and considerable drying late Tuesday night (LI increases considerably).

Agreed, especially LI. Our 39.8 isn't too bad. And we're getting some more Tuesday... should be 0.2-1.0".

One impression I have: This has been a super February for the nw-ne suburbs of NY, especially northwest. Take a good look out the window Tuesday morning and appreciate that this might be as good as it gets this season for deep - cold snowpack that has been around for 3+ weeks. I know I've enjoyed this very much and had no idea in Nov-Dec, even early January.

Saw the no changed ranked 0.4" at CP. Very good. Here's a couple of NWS LSR mapped data.

Doesn't look as promising via 12z/22 modeling but also think modeling is a bit muddled. I still am surprised that high pressure comes in so strong on the 25th. 500MB ensemble field to me suggests it's waiting for a short wave passage on the 26th. Anyway, can't outdo the modeling...just am not understanding it very well. Trend is to a minor event on the 27th and negligible but I need to wait this out another day or so. Will reevaluate Tuesday morning. Jus too early to circular file this thread.

As of general 12z/22 modeling: doesn't look as promising for snow on the 28th, daytime 1st. The night of the 1st or on the 2nd, it's possible I84? There are some changes occurring in the modeling with the southern trough dragging a bit. Will revaluate more fully tomorrow morning. Atmosphere needs to figure out what it wants to do. Definitely not cashing in.

Thats what I think as well... Not what i like to see from a top USA city but also logistics of what has changed in the ASOS era. Mostly good with so many more platforms but available personnel-job priorities have changed the process. Also noting that NWS guidelines may be limiting posting of LSR'sd, in part due to staffing and in part due to multiple job responsible cities. Noting OKX so far not posting any amounts under 1.5 or 2" as of about 2P. Thanks Don!

Wantage NJ - this part. 3.2" 32.0F and 3/4s-. wet good snowrolls.

Have yet to see a CP report with mdt to heavy snow preceding the 18z OB and 33F, as well as a pix of lower Mahattan with wet roads but a snow covered first floor sidewalk cover.

All good... thanks for your update. Walt

Snow reports to the NWS as of ~150P. See nothing for NYC CP. Should have something??

Final?? Maybe you're right but Don's stats and pattern evolution allows for more. Let's enjoy everything that we have.

Wantage NJ (this part at 115PM. 2.4" since SB 1055A. All northern Sussex County Roads in nw NJ, snow or slush covered and slippery. Two spinouts that I saw. Plowing in progress. But beautiful again. Sticking to trees. 30.7F after a high of 33.1 at 11AM. ~1/2sm moderate snow in progress. been mostly small flake. densely packed.