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wdrag

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. Definitely a little short at sunrise, amounts up here NNJ. Disorganized around our NYC subform but its not over, especially with temps in the 20s. about 7 more hours in NNJ. going to have trouble exceeding 4" here in Wantage, I think. 1.4 right now.
  2. I'll be looking for CP snowfall which in the past 6 hours might. be under an inch, but for the day? hoping 1". Then when it changes to ice, will they measure at the changeover? I don't know policy - constraints.
  3. Quite a nice snowstorm developing for the big cities... even Richmond. We worry too much, I think... let's count on a good deal of what we haven't seen much of in the cities at sunrise. After that, so be it. Enjoy this snow! mPing has it on south shore LI!
  4. BWI moderater snow at 7PM and I think they are over an inch now. DCA may be at 1.5" since I saw a 4/002 indicating 2" on the ground there.
  5. fwiw on the megalopolis cities first 1". DCA AT 4P 0.7. Since then en ought measurable to suggest at least 1" BWI at 4P 0.5. Since then approaching 1. PHL Trace through 4P. I've seen 1-2": near Richmond and just southwest of DCA, with 0.5 to near 1" DCA-BWI. This seems to be a mainly Tuesday morning snow-ice show for our NYC subforum...about a 12-15 hour event. Short term guidance is getting pretty firm on warming aloft NYC and to just west if I95 near or just after sunrise. I'm not counting on. the globals regarding changover. Best snow in the broad 4-6" axis in dark blue. I think this forecast may be 2" too low in northwest Ct/w MA.
  6. Just a reminder continue with obs and now casts here and pllllease enjoy this. Its a nice wintry event. CP should beautiful in the morning. Thanks!
  7. Am seeing some banding tomorrow but snow growth looks a little lackluster. I probably wouldn't inflate this event past 5 inches for the I84 corridor-ABE,
  8. DecJan: I hope everyone is enjoying the extremes this winter season has brought us so far. Obviously a nice winter week in progress. Is this all there is after the big warmup the middle of next week? You never know, so good to take what we have or is imminent and enjoy it to the max. I'm no long ranger so taking what I have available through Jan 30, ensembles qpf 1.5-2.5". If the max 2.5... CP would be #10 wettest Jan (6.0") and Allentown #4 with (6.7") respectively. Long ways to go and easier to have a shortfall. To me its looking interesting again from next weekend (27th and beyond) for mixed wintry events.
  9. This event was ok...but not quite as expected (disappointing for me). Few gusts 50-60MPH with power outages, especially western NJ westward across PA and north through NYS. Best snow squalls our area (1/4 mile vsby) were probably the Poconos and then as the blue wave TL above, up near and north I90 in NYS/MA. CoCoRaHs snowfall our area yesterday is attached-click for clarity. Also attached the Li portion of the NYC PNS wind gusts from Sunday afternoon. I always like to see a solid wrap on all these event threads.
  10. Not changing the thread title. it's good enough and rode it from start to finish. OBS in here as well. Thanks, Walt
  11. I think media is underplaying impact and amounts... almost certain to have a band of 3-5" just west of I95 into ABE-SWF axis. NYC might end up with 3". Their first 2 inches should be on the ground by 7A Tuesday. ICE is coming too along the I95 corridor.
  12. Looking good NYC for 1.5-3" and a little ice from a 12 to possibly 18 hour event. Persistence from mesoscale models suggests a band of 3-5" eastern PA up the I84 corridor including nw NJ but ice temps eastern CT northeastward.
  13. This post is at the seeming urging of multiple models this weekend offering a period of snow to the NYC subforum. Presuming it occurs, it could begin late Thursday the 18th, or it could linger into early Saturday the 20th. The coldest air of the season so far in NYC, may follow on gusty northwest winds next weekend, the 20th-21st. There doesn't seem to be anything definitive per this Jan 14th issuance, except that a period of snow is expected for at least a portion of NYC subforum on Friday with below normal temps. It's a strong positive tilt trough that approaches from the Great Lakes-Ohio Valley late this coming week. Attached the 12z/14 GEFS 500 MB mean left panel and 500 MB ensemble membership right panel. The NWS Sunday 'day' shift ensemble chance of 1/4" or greater snow-ice is attached as well as the 12z/14 EPS 24 hour positive snow accumulation ensembles ending around midnight Friday night. The 18z/14 GEFS was lighter for the same period so I extended the 24 hour positive snow depth ending time to sunrise Saturday whereas the CMCE was faster with the snow so I ended it 00z/20. Overall this Dec-Jan winter, it is my impression the GEFS tends to be conservative forecasting snow, the CMCE more liberal with more abundant qpf as well. I may have to add rain in the tags for the coasts as we draw closer to the proposed thread day... for now the colder solution was favored but uncertainty exists. Title addition 1/17/24 503AM: Event OBS. Tags: added rain/snow mix.
  14. Eastern PA power outages wayyyy up. 86,000 meters out in PA now, only 2300 in NJ as of 215PM. I think I saw 51kt at KMDT Combined snow showers and wind risk...useful thread.
  15. Mid level warming. EC doesn't have it. RGEM does. I think we need to pay attention to RGEM-NAM blend. EC and GFS flagged a significant event when the Tue thread was started then disappeared only to slowly return. The global models (EC-GFS) probably handle closed lows situations better then general WAA overrunning. Someone with knowledge of the models are welcome to check me on this.
  16. Hi! I'll set up hopefully a carefully worded snow thread for Friday (late Thu-early Sat). Enough modeling has a cdefinite period of snow, or a moderate snow storm, take your pick. I'll check the ensembles this evening. I think we can wait on this a bit longer til this evening, before getting ahead of ourselves especially since ensembles are as of yet not more than 2". I kind of like a reasonable chance of getting snow accum in NYC and/or a 6+ just west of I95 for our I84 Pics/nw Nj slot before getting the thread going. Thanks for your patience. Walt
  17. ALB 50 kt, LGA 40 KT. EWR 37 KT. Snow squall warnings might have been a little liberal east of the mountains. Really need those bright yellow returns, partly indicating ice and or large flakes. A couple hours of gust 35-45 kt then it calms down a bit near sunset.
  18. I haven't checked but its verification last year was #2. Also, its' steadfast performance on the previous big inland event and the current one. It's a winter very good snow model. We must disagree. Most folks dont pay attention to the CMC... so they dont really know. It';s how you use these models. I'd say EC and GFS are a little shaky this coming event, Differing input? Go for it.
  19. 1/4 SW+AVP and KMPO recently. KABE nothing. I think radar is going to have show yellows coming at you for decent snowfall.
  20. Altoona 52 KT, DCA 49 kt last 3 hours, 40 KT AVP. Power outage just w of the subform (west of the Poconos). Power outages NJ at Noon just 259 which is routine and unlikely from anything now.
  21. Its the GFS. Please incorporate Canadian into the thinking. A period of snow yes... snowstorm too soon to know for me.
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