wdrag

Summary assessment last night and the 3 day snowfall... maps of overnight qpf, the snowfall last night and the 3 day total. If interested click for clarity. You can see the max snowfall axis was displaced quite a bit further north than exampled on 1/26 start. I rate this as a C- ensemble performance not an F. Check the 1/26 guidance. Not what I like to see but what it is/was and we didnt overpromise NYC as stated on 1/26. Words matter as do pix. The sudden acceleration of the whole complex event scenario a day after initiating the thread was my largest surprise.

Following up further... I did mean snowmelt TOMORROW afternoon. No mixing today, Lots of clouds and maybe an inversion. I didnt check ACARS aircraft sounding this morning but temps will struggle to rise unless full sunshine. Yes, we'll melt this afternoon-especially LI and s of I80 in NJ-PA but I think tomorrow is the better day for melting 80 to 100 percent of what fell last night then we refresh a bit Wednesday night.

CP was changed on their 631AM previous daily climo... deserves an explanation since the 130A ob 0.5. We'll take the 1 and in answer to a question...season 6.8

I've left the timing as is. Once it becomes clear that there wont be a streak of snow into NJ/ PA before 5PM Wednesday, I'll adjust the headline timing. That probably wont happen til til late Tuesday at the earliest.

The thread is started... I played it conservative and I hope that can work for everyone. Even TV is talking about it. I do think we need to be conservative on these threads in advance...play the ballpark but not get too hyped. As I see it, both the next two coming events are relatively minor to possibly moderate impact but they will have impact on travel and be some fun for the forum. Banding could enhance in a stripe but overall 1/4-3/4" qpf wintry events are not heavyweights, still they are fun for the snow lover and especially the snow starved NYC-LI group. If you want to check impact of last evenings basic 1" event I80 axis and 2-3" se NYS-CT...look at the school delays for an event that ended basically at midnight. I tend to focus on the hazard. You can check all the ensembles through 2/18 positive snow depth change... a conservative ensemble. Pretty impressive. As dry as it was in January... I think we're northern fringing a wetter normal than month. I dont use Kuchera or 10 to 1 straight up on thread starts unless its short term. The most recent thread just ended was not a completely failure... though it was terrible missing that 36 hour+ period of dry weather between ice interior front end Friday morning and then last night's snow... and of course the northward shift of last Friday's ensembled snow. The back part worked out better than the front.

This coming weekend Feb 8-9 NORTHEAST USA near and west of I95 through the 184 corridor: Another mixed wintry event with delays and cancellations likely, especially later Saturday into Sunday morning. Timing might be in error as we're 5 days in advance. QPF is ensembled similarly to the 2/5-6 event, somewhere between 1/4-3/4". For now the attached ensembles favor I84 corridor down to the interior of I95 with more risk of rain and melting NYC-LI. The presented ensembles can be in significant max latitude (n/s) axis error 5-6 days in advance of the occurrence. It is a trackable event, in what looks like a train of events for February...some of which can veer off and disappoint but we're at least in the wintry mix game. Ensembles include the midnight 2/3 WPC D6 outlook confidence of >1/4" melted water equivalent snow sleet. (blue is greater than 50%, pretty good for D6. Other ensembles 24 hr snowfall (10 to 1 ratio), an ensemble that only shows positive snow depth change, and an ensemble probability of >0.10 qpf that is ice. This usually shrinks a bit as we draw closer to T0. 752A Mon 2/3/25

Wed Feb 5-Noon Thu Feb 6 from Interstate 95 Baltimore-Philly-NYC through PA-NYS-southern New England: Snow-sleet begins sometime Wednesday or Wednesday evening then over to ice early Thursday, probably ending as plain rain midday Thursday, except still ice I84 high terrain. Timing of the worst is a little uncertain but problems could develop Maryland-PA-central-southern NJ between 9AM and 3PM Wednesday with widespread delays and cancellations anticipated for the Thursday morning commute entire interior region from I95 northwest. A map of ensemble chance of more than one tenth inch glaze is attached. Max glaze thickness is unknown at this time due to sleet mix. The chances for this ice event is now about 100 percent. Suggest PLAN B- consider altering plans in the interior for a short time Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Also, NWS ensembles seem much more conservative than this outlook.

Good Monday morning everyone, Feb 3. my 2c on what seems to be ensembled ahead. Planning. Last night was a snow tease here. There's a pretty good chance that between now and March, much of the I84 corridor will see over a foot of snow, possibly 2 feet, Baltimore-Philly-NYC 6-12". Nothing is guaranteed but we're on the northern fringe of a wetter than normal pattern for the next month, with 30 day melted water equivalent probably at least 4" by March 7. Interstate 84 corridor snow depth (ne PA-nw NJ-NYS-CT-MA) will have almost constant snow cover between Feb 6-March 6 (last nights snowfall may melt completely by tomorrow afternoon). Patience will be helpful safely and comfortably navigating the multiple weather related hazardous travel delays and cancellations this month into possibly the first week of March.

Early yesterday ensembles had a half inch CP and I thought it was discussed here. When you're on the margins, you have to be a little more careful about predicting.

I've checked back and looking forward. First the CMCE and EPS blend did best for this past Sunday evenings snowfall... GEFS not good---way too low. I've discovered a problem in the 24hr CMCE 10 to 1 mean vs the 24hr CMCE positive snow depth. Will post in the morning when awake. The thread for the 5th-6th has been started and I'll add a new thread for the 8th-9th at 9A this morning. You're probably enjoying the spate of probable wintry events coming up the next two weeks. I like it cause it means we can moisten the ground. In the 10 days ending the 12th including the tenth of an inch tonight... all ensembles 1.5". Probably add another 3/4" to extend it out to 360 hours... beneficial, presuming it occurs something like this.

Final at the OKX CLI sites 2A/3 NYC Central Park 0.5" Newark 0.5" JFK and Islip Trace LGA.1.2" BDR 2.5" Will CoCoRaHs map at 10A.

Wantage NJ 4sw final 1.0" beautiful snow. Report at 150A and 27F. Yesterdays high was 26. Season snowfall 20.8. Later, Walt

My guess based on the OBS from CP (0.02) that at least 0.2" fell through 8P there. Ditto here in Wantage, NJ...sort of feeble looking.. Back end of the precipitation in Central PA is showery looking and harder edges implying sleet.

Discuss the possibilities of little more snow-sleet for NYC-LI. Please check back on the 7th for the review of the attached guidance, maybe used as a learning tool. Ensembles temporarily trended a little colder so that NYC CP-parts of LI may receive 1/2-1.5" of snow sleet to start before a change to rain. Most of the precipitation looks to occur 6PM Wed-Noon Thursday, starting as snow or sleet then changing to rain by sunrise Thursday NYC-LI, but freezing rain-sleet interior, northwest of I95. That freezing rain sleet may linger into midday over parts of nw NJ/interior se NYS, interior CT and the Poconos where mixing warmer air to the surface should be minimal until sometime Thursday night (baggy flow Thursday morning). Time of transition from snow-sleet to rain-ice will determine amounts of snow/sleet. This event may impact (slow travel-transportation delays) during the Wednesday evening commute depending on the start time, and "should" leave at least delays and/or widespread cancellations for the interior early Thursday. Total melted qpf should range between 0.3-0.8".. with the GEFS the least. QPF factors into the resultant amount of the various wintry elements. Ensembles already included are recently colder prob of >1" snowfall (includes sleet) from the EPS, CMCE, GEFS. the EPS 06z/6 2m temps, the ensemble chance of >0.10 freezing rain qpf from both the 12z and 18z cycles. Those probs have been consistently very high for the past several days---BUT caution on interpreting .10 qpf as .10 glaze. It could be significantly less depending on temp/rates of fall, drop size. I also added the EPS raw qpf interpreted as freezing rain. Ensembles show a primary low moving up into the eastern Great Lakes-upstate NY by dawn Thursday with a warm frontal wave moving northeast off the NJ coast, possibly maintaining itself through forenoon Thursday passing e of LI, then merging with the primary low in eastern Canada Thursday night and returning subfreezing temps to the area by daybreak Friday. The amount of subfreezing cold that returns in the wake of the departing eastern Canada low on Friday, will help determine what happens here next weekend (Feb 8-9). If somehow the primary near the eastern Great Lakes is dominant and there is no warm frontal wave of low pressure coming up the NJ coast, then snow-sleet amounts would be less. Final 757P/2. 702 PM Tue 2/4: headline delayed the start time about 12 hours to midnight Wed night. Bulk of the wintry mix probably occurs in a 6 hour window roughly 4AM-10AM. All of the NYC subforum and surrounding areas near and inland from I95 are covered by a winter wx advisory issued at 330PM Tuesday. Several hours of slippery conditions in snow ice are also expected in NYC and Long Island near dawn-sunrise Thursday before a change to rain. The delay was caused by the narrow snow streak in se PA-MD-DE Wednesday morning not advancing northeastward until Wednesday night.

Snowing Wantage NJ and pretty decent sized flakes.

Despite no advy NNJ and se NYS, it will get slippery. Believe this might be a CRTIERIA difficulty. What about freezing rain at the end there near 11P? It clears toward dawn and radiates a bit so that moisture refreezes NNj and se NYS. I think problems ahead for our area. 25/19 at 538P.

As time allows, will prob get a thread going for Feb5-6, roughly Noon-noon, for less than 1" snow/sleet LI/CP/I95 east, and longer ice interior. Need time to catch up as was at Point Pleasant today... including good seafood at Spikes. Will check in at 8P.

Looks like first snow grains, freezing drizzle or patches of light snow showers could start sometime between 11A-2P on parts of e Li. Radar starting to show weak echos off LI.

You've seen the ensembles through the 16th... 2.5-3.5". That is good. Here's the chance of more than 2" as per the 50 member NAEFS.

No new threads for me this morning...let's finish off tonight inn the Feb 2 thread. Feb 5-6, looks mainly interior but its possible we'll see 1/2-1" snow sleet CP-LI but want to be more certain. Feb 8-9 and Feb 11-14 could end up decent here but long ways to go before threading. You have the models. Attached the EPS chance of 0.10 water equiv glaze. This is impressive for this Wed-Thu... and also the chances for similar next weekend via the NWS ensemble. EPS for D7 is only about 30-40% but still impressive. Could be more snow-sleet with the one next weekend?

And today the 00z/2 EPS ensemble chance of 0.10 water equivalent ice-near 100% as posted. Plan accordingly interior Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Also the chance for the same next weekend.

Think this 2/5-6 event is going to be more significant than the overall 1/31-2/2 event when that's summarized, especially ICE. WSSI-P. Says basically pretty widespread wintry event coming later Wednesday and especially Thursday morning.

Many opportunities this month, though I84 looks better for ice-snow but am monitoring for NYC-LI. Sunday eve snow-ice obs are a good fit for the Jan 31-Feb 2 thread, whatever there is. Models trending snowier CP with EPS near 1/2" CP. I'm pretty sure much of Li will see snow, or a snow- ice-rain mix 6P-midnight and one model is starting snow showers midday Sunday. ALL 12z/1 ensembles have about 2.5" of qpf here next 16 days. We'll see if that is overdone but at least its qpf.

So... you're probably noticing N Shore LI and CP now modeled for measurable snow-sleet tomorrow eve. We'll see if happens. No matter, I plan to post later Monday the Jan 31-Feb 2 snow sleet totals and compare agains the originating 00z/26 guidance You already know about the ice in nw NJ/e PA/se NYS which was a Friday morning delay producer for many schools (not snow but a significant non visible winter element hazard both underfoot and for aviation considerations-deicing). Snow-ice OBS tomorrow should go into this thread, if you have any. Thank you.