bluewave

While the temperatures will begin to moderate in the East, the Northeast looks like it will experience a slower warm up relative to other areas. It also appears the drier pattern will continue over the next week. So mostly weaker sheared out systems in the near term with the very fast flow.

NYC had no trouble dropping to 3° since the winds stayed up throughout this Arctic outbreak. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc

That was a much colder 15 day period than we just had. Minimum 15-Day Mean Avg Temperature for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 12.0 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-20 0 2 12.2 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-19 0 3 12.9 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-21 0 4 12.9 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-18 0 5 14.4 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-17 0 6 14.4 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-22 0 7 15.1 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-13 0 8 15.2 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-23 0 9 15.7 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-16 0 10 15.8 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-12 0 11 16.0 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-14 0 12 16.4 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-15 0 13 16.4 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-16 0 - 16.4 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-15 0 14 17.0 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-17 0 15 17.1 1968-01-04 through 1968-01-18 0 16 17.1 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-11 0 17 17.2 1979-02-10 through 1979-02-24 0 18 17.6 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-14 0 19 17.7 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-14 0 20 17.8 1968-01-05 through 1968-01-19 0 21 17.9 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-17 0 22 18.0 1981-01-01 through 1981-01-15 0 23 18.0 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-25 0 24 18.1 1967-12-27 through 1968-01-10 0 25 18.1 1981-01-02 through 1981-01-16 0 26 18.2 2005-01-17 through 2005-01-31 0 27 18.2 2005-01-18 through 2005-02-01 0 - 18.2 1977-01-17 through 1977-01-31 0 28 18.3 1981-01-04 through 1981-01-18 0 29 18.3 1977-01-10 through 1977-01-24 0 30 18.4 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-09 0 - 18.4 1977-01-12 through 1977-01-26 0 31 18.4 1977-01-16 through 1977-01-30 0 - 18.4 1977-01-09 through 1977-01-23 0 32 18.5 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-07 0

December and January finished around the 7th warmest for the CONUS. So the warmth out West has been much more impressive than the cold in the East. The shorter duration last 2 to 3 weeks had top 5 and top 10 cold for climate districts in the East for January 20th to February 7th. But since the start of the winter the climate districts and the larger regions haven’t been nearly as cold. With how warm our winters have become since 2015-2016, it makes this winter feel much colder since people quickly normalize their recent 3-7 year climate. Right before the big global and national temperature jump in 2015-2016, the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest regions were able to sustain a top 10 cold pattern for the entire winter of 2013-2014. But that cold pool was less expansive than the late 1970s so nationally we couldn’t rank in the top 10 or even top 20. It finished 33rd coldest for the CONUS. We can see how the record warmth wasn’t present in the West that winter. Prior to the multiple temperature increases since the early 1980s, the entire CONUS had its last top 10 coldest winters from coast to coast with no extreme warmth anywhere in the CONUS in the late 1970s. With 1978-1979 ranking as the coldest winter since 1895 for the CONUS. https://bsky.app/profile/climatologist49.bsky.social/post/3me3dxzzakc23 social‬ Follow The Dec-Jan period was the 7th warmest for the Contiguous U.S. since 1940. 21.1% had the warmest Dec-Jan during that period. 0.0% had the coldest Dec-Jan; 0.0% had the 2nd coldest, 0.0% had the 3rd coldest, .... all the way thru the 13th coldest. 9:32 PM · Feb 4, 2026

Some spots could see an ice shove with the strong winds next few days.

This is our most impressive coverage of ice on the local waterways for the 2020s.

But I like to rank the actual temperatures and not the instances. This is why there are multiple ways of sorting. But if you like to rank the instances then you are free to. My focus is more in the weather element than how many ties there have been. Both ways are technically correct.

Getting a top 10 coldest for a week to a month across a region or adjacent regions is impressive cold but is considered a shorter duration and smaller geographic footprint. My discussions have been focused on seasonal top 10 cold which spans the 3 winter months of December to February. This hasn’t happened on a national level since the 1970s. These shorter duration Arctic outbreaks ranking in the top 10 and over a smaller geographic region than the past have been a common feature of our climate in recent years. Think back to the regional cold records during February 2021. In the old days these regional monthly top 10s would extend to seasonal which hasn’t happened in recent years. Plus the magnitude of the warmth across the Plains in December 2021 was greater than the cold in February 2021. None of the cold records so far in the East rank as cold as the warm records in the West have for geographic extent, magnitude, or duration. Since the Northern Hemisphere cold pool is so much smaller than it used to be.This winter has been among the warmest on record for the Northern Hemisphere.

NYC had gone 15 days so far not reaching 40°. That is the 14th longest streak for NYC no matter how many years tied since we are ranking the number of days and not the individual years. With the coming cold next several days this will result in the longest streak in 20 years. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 35 1945-02-08 2 34 1886-02-08 3 33 1948-02-11 4 26 1879-01-17 5 25 1881-02-08 6 23 1940-01-13 - 23 1936-02-14 - 23 1885-02-09 7 22 1968-01-17 - 22 1924-02-25 - 22 1918-02-06 - 22 1912-02-15 - 22 1893-01-24 - 22 1883-01-17 - 22 1881-01-06 8 21 2004-02-03 - 21 2000-02-06 - 21 1978-02-16 - 21 1940-02-05 - 21 1901-02-15 - 21 1895-02-16 - 21 1877-01-06 9 20 1905-02-11 - 20 1902-02-22 - 20 1888-02-03 10 19 2003-02-01 - 19 1981-01-18 - 19 1977-01-09 11 18 1970-01-16 - 18 1914-02-25 - 18 1904-01-12 - 18 1887-01-12 12 17 2005-01-31 - 17 2001-01-05 - 17 1977-01-27 - 17 1966-02-07 - 17 1961-02-04 - 17 1948-01-08 - 17 1934-02-14 - 17 1918-01-11 - 17 1910-01-01 - 17 1875-01-21 13 16 2011-02-04 - 16 1963-12-25 - 16 1884-01-30 - 16 1870-03-09 14 15 2026-02-06 - 15 2018-01-08

The NWS at Upton uses dense rank sorting and doesn’t skip ranks following ties. I think this makes more sense since we are ranking the temperature and not the year. It’s more misleading in my opinion to skip ranks since it makes the rank more subjective when there are multiple ties.

I use dense rank sorting which doesn’t skip rank numbers. DENSE_RANK is a SQL window function that sorts data and assigns consecutive rankings to rows, ensuring no gaps in the sequence, even when ties occur. If multiple rows share a rank (e.g., two rows are ranked 1), the next rank is 2, not 3. It is essential for top-N analysis without skipping rank numbers. Key Aspects of DENSE_RANK: No Gaps: If two rows tie for rank 1, the next rank is 2, not 3. Ties: Identical values receive the same rank. Syntax: DENSE_RANK() OVER ([PARTITION BY <columns>] ORDER BY <columns>). Use Case: Ideal for top-N analysis where multiple rows might share the same top value, but you still want a continuous ranking order.

The Euro seasonal that was just released has a slightly cooler to average spring and summer in the Northeast. While these long range forecasts are often low skill, they do seem to do better heading into the summer than the winter. Would match the theme of stuck weather patterns in the 2020s as this would be a continuation of the pattern which developed last November. Sometimes developing El Niño summers aren’t as warm like we saw back in 2023.

We’ll see if the guidance is correct that we will finally end the under 40° streak by later next week as we are currently in 18th place. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 35 1945-01-05 through 1945-02-08 2 34 1886-01-06 through 1886-02-08 3 33 1948-01-10 through 1948-02-11 4 26 1878-12-23 through 1879-01-17 5 25 1881-01-15 through 1881-02-08 6 23 1939-12-22 through 1940-01-13 - 23 1936-01-23 through 1936-02-14 - 23 1885-01-18 through 1885-02-09 9 22 1967-12-27 through 1968-01-17 - 22 1924-02-04 through 1924-02-25 - 22 1918-01-16 through 1918-02-06 - 22 1912-01-25 through 1912-02-15 - 22 1893-01-03 through 1893-01-24 - 22 1882-12-27 through 1883-01-17 - 22 1880-12-16 through 1881-01-06 10 21 2004-01-14 through 2004-02-03 - 21 2000-01-17 through 2000-02-06 - 21 1978-01-27 through 1978-02-16 - 21 1940-01-16 through 1940-02-05 - 21 1901-01-26 through 1901-02-15 - 21 1895-01-27 through 1895-02-16 - 21 1876-12-17 through 1877-01-06 11 20 1905-01-23 through 1905-02-11 - 20 1902-02-03 through 1902-02-22 - 20 1888-01-15 through 1888-02-03 12 19 2003-01-14 through 2003-02-01 - 19 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-18 - 19 1976-12-22 through 1977-01-09 13 18 1969-12-30 through 1970-01-16 - 18 1914-02-08 through 1914-02-25 - 18 1903-12-26 through 1904-01-12 - 18 1886-12-26 through 1887-01-12 14 17 2005-01-15 through 2005-01-31 - 17 2000-12-20 through 2001-01-05 - 17 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-27 - 17 1966-01-22 through 1966-02-07 - 17 1961-01-19 through 1961-02-04 - 17 1947-12-23 through 1948-01-08 - 17 1934-01-29 through 1934-02-14 - 17 1917-12-26 through 1918-01-11 - 17 1909-12-16 through 1910-01-01 - 17 1875-01-05 through 1875-01-21 15 16 2011-01-20 through 2011-02-04 - 16 1963-12-10 through 1963-12-25 - 16 1884-01-15 through 1884-01-30 - 16 1870-02-22 through 1870-03-09 16 15 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-08 - 15 1989-12-16 through 1989-12-30 - 15 1982-01-08 through 1982-01-22 - 15 1980-01-24 through 1980-02-07 - 15 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-19 - 15 1978-01-10 through 1978-01-24 - 15 1969-12-14 through 1969-12-28 - 15 1960-02-29 through 1960-03-14 - 15 1910-01-03 through 1910-01-17 - 15 1874-01-29 through 1874-02-12 17 14 2007-01-29 through 2007-02-11 - 14 2003-02-05 through 2003-02-18 - 14 1958-02-07 through 1958-02-20 - 14 1945-12-11 through 1945-12-24 - 14 1938-01-09 through 1938-01-22 - 14 1929-01-24 through 1929-02-06 - 14 1897-01-23 through 1897-02-05 18 13 2026-01-23 through 2026-02-04

This was our 2nd winter in a row with the highest ranking CONUS snowfall occurring in the South. The common denominator between both winters has been overpowering 500 mb ridges in the Western U.S. and Canada. So the ridge-trough axis with this recent event was too far east. Last winter the ridge was located more in Canada. The difference this winter has been while we still have a dominant Northern Stream like last winter, we had a 7 day period where the Southern Stream was able to become more active as the forcing shifted east of the Dateline like January 2022. This allowed the one classic benchmark storm track for the first NESIS KU type event with widespread 10”+ for the Northeast since January 2022. The hope for next winter is the potential El Niño development will give us more than a one week window of opportunity for benchmark 10”+ snowstorms. Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for NEW BERN - COASTAL CAROLINA REGIONAL AIRPORT, NC Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 15.5 1965-01-31 0 2 13.0 2026-02-01 1 - 13.0 2026-01-31 0 - 13.0 1973-02-10 0 Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for New Orleans Area, LA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 8.0 2025-01-22 0 - 8.0 2025-01-21 1 2 2.7 1964-01-01 0 - 2.7 1963-12-31 0 3 2.0 1958-02-13 0 - 2.0 1958-02-12 0 Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for Mobile Area, AL (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 7.5 2025-01-22 0 - 7.5 2025-01-21 0 2 6.0 1895-02-15 0 3 5.0 1881-01-25 0 - 5.0 1881-01-24 0

A very icy New Haven Harbor today. You can see the ice getting pushed up against the Pardee Seawall Park on the east shore. This is the most ice on the area waterways during the 2020s and will peak early next week. Ice shoves could become a concern in areas that get strong winds directly into the shore.

Heaviest snow in some spots since December 1989.

Much of North America is on track for a thaw heading into to mid-February following the Arctic outbreak in the Northeast this weekend.

That is one feat I never attempted back in my Long Beach days. I made it a rule to never go into the ocean when it when the SSTs were any cooler than the 60s. But knew a bunch of people who attended them.

Pretty impressive wind chills behind the Arctic front this weekend. The much stronger winds this time also mean that NYC has a shot an approaching 5°. The weaker winds during recent Arctic outbreaks couldn’t transport the coldest readings into the heat island and the seasonal low in NYC is 9°. Minimum Temperature Data for December 1, 2025 through February 4, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 11 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 10 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 9 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 9 NY ST. JAMES COOP 9 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 9 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 9

The beauty of living the Great Lakes is that even having the warmest winter on record in 23-24, Marquette was able to get 126.4” of snowfall. Now I realize that is a very low snowfall outcome for the area. But it’s still way ahead of the snowiest seasons in my area.

I think you are incorrectly referring to one of my older discussions. My statement was that in order to get back to colder winters prior to the big temperature rise in 2015-2016 we would need a major volcanic eruption to cool the climate down for 3-7 years before the cooling aerosol effects wear off. What this means is that it’s going to be a challenge to get a repeat of 2014-2015 in Boston, 2013-2014 in the Great Lakes, 2009-2010 in the Mid-Atlantic, 1995-1996 in the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast, the top 10 coldest winters which we experienced Nationally during the 1970s , and for North America on the whole in 1993-1994 winter. It doesn’t mean that we can’t still get colder winters especially on a regional to multi regional basis. Just that they will struggle to match the colder rankings we experienced back in the old days. This winter and last winter are prime examples of this.

March during the 2020s through 2025 has been the least snowy decade. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.5 0.5 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 0.0 0.0 2023 1.6 1.6 2022 1.6 1.6 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 8.2 8.2 2019 4.1 4.1 2018 31.9 31.9 2017 7.4 7.4 2016 3.2 3.2 2015 19.7 19.7 2014 5.4 5.4 2013 7.4 7.4 2012 T T 2011 2.1 2.1 2010 0.4 0.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 5.4 5.4 2009 13.6 13.6 2008 T T 2007 3.8 3.8 2006 3.2 3.2 2005 13.3 13.3 2004 5.7 5.7 2003 3.7 3.7 2002 T T 2001 10.3 10.3 2000 0.2 0.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 5.8 5.8 1999 9.1 9.1 1998 1.6 1.6 1997 3.7 3.7 1996 12.0 12.0 1995 T T 1994 5.0 5.0 1993 13.3 13.3 1992 7.6 7.6 1991 1.9 1.9 1990 4.2 4.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.0 3.0 1989 3.0 3.0 1988 3.4 3.4 1987 1.7 1.7 1986 0.1 0.1 1985 T T 1984 13.0 13.0 1983 T T 1982 T T 1981 7.1 7.1 1980 2.0 2.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.1 3.1 1979 T T 1978 10.4 10.4 1977 4.0 4.0 1976 3.9 3.9 1975 1.2 1.2 1974 8.0 8.0 1973 T T 1972 1.0 1.0 1971 1.0 1.0 1970 1.0 1.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.9 6.9 1969 11.0 11.0 1968 3.0 3.0 1967 21.7 21.7 1966 0.0 0.0 1965 4.5 4.5 1964 1.0 1.0 1963 M M 1962 M M 1961 M M 1960 M M

The coldest 10 day stretch back in February 2015 was .1 warmer as that month was more about the longer duration February cold. 16.8 2026-02-02 16.9 2015-02-21

The most impressive short term cold this winter in the CONUS has been the record breaking cold in Florida the last few days. This goes to my point a few days ago about the big temperature swings and smaller geographic footprint of the cold. So places like West Palm Beach with a very long period of record just tied their all-time warmest winter reading of 90° in late January before falling to their 6th coldest winter low of 30°. This is against the backdrop of that area and all the locations across the CONUS experiencing a much higher ratio of record highs to record lows. It makes the cold stand out more since it’s more of a novelty than the record warmth which usually dominates West Palm Beach was finally able to end their longest streak above 30° since 1989. Time Series Summary for West Palm Beach Area, FL (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Warmest Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-2026 90 26 - 2022-2023 90 0 - 2009-2010 90 0 - 1948-1949 90 0 - 1941-1942 90 0 - 1927-1928 90 0 - 1917-1918 90 0 Time Series Summary for West Palm Beach Area, FL (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Coldest Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1894-1895 24 0 2 1904-1905 26 0 3 1976-1977 27 0 4 1989-1990 28 0 - 1984-1985 28 0 - 1920-1921 28 5 - 1916-1917 28 0 - 1898-1899 28 0 5 1981-1982 29 0 - 1969-1970 29 0 - 1917-1918 29 0 6 2025-2026 30 26 - 1983-1984 30 0 - 1970-1971 30 0 - 1962-1963 30 0 - 1906-1907 30 0 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 31 for West Palm Beach Area, FL (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1888-04-16 to 2026-02-02 1 13186 1989-12-26 through 2026-01-31 2 6787 1944-05-14 through 1962-12-12 3 3893 1929-09-29 through 1940-05-26 4 2584 1962-12-14 through 1970-01-09 5 2190 1971-01-21 through 1977-01-18 6 1796 1985-01-23 through 1989-12-23 7 1658 1899-02-15 through 1903-08-31 8 1413 1940-06-28 through 1944-05-10 9 1137 1977-01-21 through 1980-03-02 10 974 1889-07-01 through 1892-02-29

The magnitude of the warmth in the West has been much more extreme than magnitude of the cold in the East. So the West has been experiencing historic warmth. While the East has been colder than recent winters, it’s nothing historic compared to our colder winters of the past. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow How cold has this winter been so far? The first 2/3 of winter 2025-26 is the 7th warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. 10:22 PM · Feb 1, 2026 ‪Climatologist49‬ ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ · 1d Here is how all areas ranked from 1 (warmest) to 131 (coolest). Team Red is WAY BIGGER than Team Blue. 9