bluewave

We’ll know the storm track has improved when we get an amped system with no P-Type issues. That’s what we have been waiting for. People at the coast will be happy when they get all snow from start to finish.

Even Long Island can get into the record warmth with the flow becoming more westerly behind the Sunday morning squall potential.

It will be interesting to see if the squall potential early Sunday can mix down some of the stronger winds aloft. The Euro maintains the squall with record high temperatures and dewpoints in the 60’s. This has got a more spring look to it than something we normally see in January.

That AO and NAO reversal was so extreme, the models could easily see it from 11-15 days out. Newark set their record snowfall for 33 days. Winter didn’t return again until Nemo in February 2013. Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1931-02-01 to 2020-01-08 1 61.5 2011-01-27 0 2 53.6 2011-01-26 0 3 48.7 1978-02-14 0 4 45.7 1978-02-18 0 5 45.5 1961-02-16 0 6 45.2 1978-02-13 0 7 45.0 1978-02-15 0 8 44.9 1978-02-17 0 - 44.9 1978-02-16 0 10 44.8 1961-02-15 0

Could be an interesting squall line early Sunday with the record warmth. We’ll have to see how much of the LLJ any convection can mix down.

What’s odd about seasonal snowfall climatology?

Can you try reading what I actually said vs what personal biases you are bringing to the discussion. The bulk means the majority of the seasonal snowfall. The seasons where some locations had more snowfall before January 20th than after are few and far between. Some stations pulled this off in 95-96, 03-04, and 10-11. But they are the exception rather than the rule. So the recent decadal snowfall that I posted is representative of that distribution. Newark snowfall before January 20th.....after January 20th 1996.....46.9....31.5 2011.....37.9....30.3 2004.....30.9.....16.9

The bulk of our seasonal snowfall usually comes after January 19th. Just goes to show what an extreme outlier the 10-11 winter was. NYC snowfall ............By January 19th......After January 19th 18-19....7.1......13.4 17-18....17.9....23.0 16-17....10.1....20.1 15-16....0.4......32.4 14-15....3.7......46.6 13-14....15.0....42.4 12-13....5.1.....21.0 11-12....2.9.....4.5 10-11...31.9....30.0 09-10....13.2...38.2

I just remember the paper getting posted on twitter a few years ago when the EPS was showing too weak a phase 6. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00480.1?mobileUi=0 show the composite maps for the forecasts initialized with the strong MJO in phase 5. This is the phase in which VarEPS shows the largest difference between the predictability and prediction skill, while CFSv2 has relatively better prediction skill (Fig. 7). The skill difference between the two systems mainly results from the wind field. The VarEPS does not predict the propagation signal, while CFSv2 predicts the amplitude realistically with propagation of zonal wind field anomaly.

The GEFS has one of the most amplified phase 4-7 transits that we have seen in January. Gets over to phase 7 around January 20th. So a more -EPO gradient pattern potentially emerging between the 20th and 24th. Would probably be around February 1st that the MJO gets closer to phase 8.

Thanks for posting. A stronger phase 7 could set up a -EPO gradient pattern in late January.

Patience is required in eventually getting to a colder pattern since MJO’s have become so extreme. This one already caused catastrophic flooding due to the record SST’s north of Australia. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/01/01/not-ordinary-rain-worst-rainfall-in-over-decade-causes-massive-floods-in-jakarta.html Jakarta average rainfall intensity during big floods The rainfall intensity recorded on Dec. 31, 2019 is deemed the highest ever occurred in Jakarta compared to other years of when big flood occurred in the capital city.

We discussed it in the MJO posts earlier today. The EPS tends to be too weak in MJO phase 6 following phase 5. So the other models have a slightly different pattern around day 10 due to the stronger MJO phase 6.

We can get help from the -EPO as soon as we get closer to phase 7 in late January. Here is what the MJO did the last 2 times we had such an amplified phase 4-5 passage in January. Both times we eventually got over closer to phase 8 in February.

I was talking about the 17-24th period. So it looks like the models are correcting stronger with phase 6 now. We need to get it over to phase 7 January 25-31 so we can work on improving the EPO and PNA. That’s why I mentioned a possible 8 for February.

The key is getting the successful transition from 7-8. But we have plenty of time to see how things play out.

Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out. That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1

We can always get transient cool shots behind cold fronts in phase 6. But root for the GEFS to keep going to phase 8 by the start of February.

That 1932 record warmest January still stands for NYC. It’s the only winter month that hasn’t set a new warmest record since 2015. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf Top 3 warmest winter months in NYC Dec 50.8...2015 44.1...2001 43.8...1984 Jan 43.2....1932 41.4....1990/1950 40.9....1913/2006 Feb 42.0...2018 41.6...2017 40.9...2012

NYC already in the top 10 warmest January 1st to 15th periods before the warmest temperatures arrive. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15 Missing Count 1 2007-01-15 46.4 0 2 1932-01-15 44.0 0 3 1950-01-15 43.6 0 4 1907-01-15 43.5 0 5 1998-01-15 43.3 0 6 2005-01-15 42.2 0 7 1937-01-15 42.1 0 8 1930-01-15 41.7 0 9 1890-01-15 41.4 0 10 2020-01-15 41.2 8

Light rain just began here in SW Suffolk at 40 degrees.

This is the lowest snow cover extent across the Northern Hemisphere on January 6th since 2007.

I think most on here care more about what the SE ridge does when a storm is ejecting out of the Plains and Rockies. A flatter SE ridge in the means relative to the next week was expected post phase 4-5 peak. So you need to see improvements in the EPO and PNA before things get more interesting. But you will want to see those improvements make it to day 7-8 to have more confidence in the forecast. The day 10-15 range is always subject to change once within the 6-10. And the the 6-10 still changes once to within days 1-5.

The day 10 EPS still shows a strong -PNA pattern. That’s what people are concerned about. So anything too amped could easily cut. The difference between the old and new runs at that time is the more +EPO. New run Old run

Yeah, all cutters and huggers. Only 1.9“of snow at at JFK for 8.03 of total precipitation in December.