bluewave

While the June high temperature departures have been well above normal at EWR and LGA, there hasn’t been an excessive number of 90 degree days for June. The +2.5 high temperature departure at Newark at 83.6 is the 10th warmest. The +3.5 at LGA and 83.6 is 5th warmest. But there has been a record number of 88 degree days at LGA and 2nd place so for at Newark. LGA also recorded the 3rd highest number of 89 degree days for June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature = 88 Missing Count 1 1993 7 0 2 2020 5 3 - 1934 5 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature = 88 Missing Count 1 2020 4 3 2 1994 3 0 - 1987 3 0 - 1986 3 0 - 1976 3 0 - 1965 3 0 - 1961 3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature = 89 Missing Count 1 2013 4 0 2 1962 3 0 3 2020 2 3

The NAM convection placement has been off recently. Too bad they had to suspend the HRRR v4 and delay implementation. Those 24 to 36 hr convection forecasts seemed to be pretty good when the forecasts were on COD weather. Would be nice if they could develop a new CAM run off the ECMWF.

Heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk. Pleasantly surprised to see the echoes intensify once east of NYC. Winds also picked up with gusts to 35 mph at the Wantagh mesonet.

The 95+ degree high end temperature potential has been muted so far by the pattern. But the dry conditions have allowed the maximum departures to beat the minimums. EWR max...+2.5 min....+1.2 LGA max....+3.6 min.....+4.0 NYC max....+2.6 min.....+2.1 ISP max....+3.2 min....+1.4 JFK max..+2.0 min....0.0 BDR max...+2.7 min....+2.2 HPN max.....+2.8 min......+0.3

I believe this is the first year that CAR and BTV beat both the May and June high temperatures at EWR and LGA. So far, it’s the warm season of onshore flow and the strongest heat going to our north. CAR May...91 Jun....96 BTV May....95 Jun.....96 EWR May....86 Jun....92 LGA May....86 Jun....93

The most impressive heat records continue to our north. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 504 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2020 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... TODAY, JUNE 26, 2020, MARKED THE 11TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH A HIGH OF 80 DEGREES (F) OR WARMER IN CARIBOU, MAINE. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THE MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 80 DEGREES OR WARMER IN CARIBOU. THE OLD RECORD OF 10 DAYS WAS FROM AUGUST 14-23, 2015. WEATHER RECORDS IN CARIBOU DATE BACK TO 1939. THERE HAVE BEEN A TOTAL OF 12 DAYS SO FAR THIS JUNE WITH A HIGH OF 80F OR WARMER. THIS IS THE MOST 80 DEGREE DAYS IN THE MONTH OF JUNE SINCE 2005 WHEN THERE WERE 12. THE LONG TERM AVERAGE (1981-2010 AVERAGES) IS SIX 80+ DAYS DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. THE ALL-TIME RECORD IS 13, WHICH WAS SET IN 1976. THERE HAVE BEEN 4 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH A HIGH OF 90F OR WARMER, WHICH IS ONE SHY OF THE RECORD OF 5, SET IN 1949. CARIBOU AVERAGES JUST TWO 90 DEGREE DAYS EACH SUMMER. THE ALL-TIME RECORD IS 11, SET DURING THE SUMMER OF 1944.

I think long range models may continue to underestimate the omega block with the IO standing wave pattern.

Driest Jan1st to June 25th in NYC since 1995. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Jun 25 Missing Count 2020-06-25 15.37 0 2019-06-25 27.28 0 2018-06-25 24.23 0 2017-06-25 27.36 0 2016-06-25 17.36 0 2015-06-25 19.27 0 2014-06-25 28.35 0 2013-06-25 29.03 0 2012-06-25 17.26 0 2011-06-25 28.20 0 2010-06-25 27.65 0 2009-06-25 24.16 0 2008-06-25 23.26 0 2007-06-25 31.72 0 2006-06-25 25.73 0 2005-06-25 21.19 0 2004-06-25 20.36 0 2003-06-25 28.23 0 2002-06-25 16.90 0 2001-06-25 21.49 0 2000-06-25 21.00 0 1999-06-25 20.89 0 1998-06-25 35.18 0 1997-06-25 19.20 0 1996-06-25 25.62 0 1995-06-25 15.28 0

We need some help from any convection on Saturday to make it out of the top 10 driest Junes. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1949 0.02 0 2 1999 0.59 0 3 2020 0.98 6 - 1894 0.98 0 4 1901 1.00 0 5 1880 1.14 0 6 1966 1.17 0 7 1898 1.25 0 8 1906 1.26 0 9 1965 1.27 0 - 1908 1.27 0 10 1873 1.28 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1949 0.03 0 2 1999 0.50 0 3 2020 0.76 6 4 1988 0.94 0 5 1965 1.14 0 6 1978 1.30 0 7 1986 1.43 0 - 1963 1.43 0 8 1966 1.44 0 9 1954 1.48 0 10 1979 1.51 0

Not quite. There were a number of extreme conditions about in 2019/2020 which perhaps point to a common driver in the Indian Ocean. In the fullness of time we may find a unifying explanation for the SH SSW, QBO disruption and record cold/strong NH PV. Abstract The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a repeating cycle of tropical stratosphere winds reversing direction from eastward to westward roughly every 14 months. Discovered independently by British and American scientists the QBO continued undisturbed for 27 cycles from 1953 until February 2016 when a westward jet unexpectedly formed in the lower stratosphere during the eastward phase. This disruption is attributed to unusually high wave momentum fluxes from the Northern Hemisphere. A second, similar, QBO disruption occurred during the 2019/2020 northern winter though this time the Arctic polar vortex was exceptionally strong and wave fluxes weak. Here we show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was twice as strong as that seen in 2016 and resulted from horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere. The disruption began in September 2019 when there was a rare Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming followed by abnormal conditions in the stratosphere with the smallest ozone hole since its discovery and enhanced equatorward momentum fluxes. In both disruptions the normal downward progression of the QBO halts and the eastward shear zone above the disruption moves upward assisted by stronger tropical upwelling during the boreal winter. Results from the two disruptions provide compelling evidence of a fundamental change in our understanding of the dynamics of the QBO with extra-tropical influences more significant than previously thought. In turn, this implies a less predictable QBO. Furthermore, the expected climate response of the mechanism we have identified suggests that reoccurring QBO disruptions are consistent with an emerging signal of climate change weakening QBO amplitudes as predicted by models.

The blocking from Siberia to the Great Lakes almost looks like a cold season pattern.

Top 2 driest pattern for several stations since the pattern change back in mid-May. Not much rain in the forecast. Time Series Summary for Bridgeport Area, CT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 17 to Jun 23 Missing Count 1 1957-06-23 0.63 0 2 2020-06-23 0.75 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 17 to Jun 23 Missing Count 1 2020-06-23 1.12 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 17 to Jun 23 Missing Count 1 1964-06-23 1.17 0 2 2020-06-23 1.21 0

Almost like the Siberian version of our December 2015 +13 departure lasting for months. Wonder what our actual departures would be for a 5 month equivalent 5 sigma event?

This is one of those rare times when the WAR forecast has been getting weaker day 8 from day 10. We got used to the pattern of it correcting stronger day 8-10. The trough digging into the West also was a signal for an easy high temperature guidance beat. Maybe a combo of the developing La Niña, Indian Ocean warmth, and that perma-heat ridge which has been stuck over a Siberia.

We may get some pretty sunsets this weekend if the SAL forecast works out.

Unusual ring of ridging to our north across the Northern Hemisphere since last late May. Keeps us in an easterly flow with record warmth to our north and west. So we get these omega block type patterns that occasionally extend into Northern New England. The first in late May had the new May all-time high temperature for BTV. Most recently, CAR had their all-time June high. Albany recorded a daily record high yesterday. The models now continue this general pattern into at least early July. So this year we are getting and early summer pattern that actually began in late May.

Looks like a top 5 driest June through the 22nd for your area. Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Jun 22 Missing Count 1 1993-06-22 0.00 8 2 1949-06-22 0.02 0 3 1988-06-22 0.29 0 4 2020-06-22 0.30 0 5 1957-06-22 0.40 0

The OP Euro has been having these big run to run swings day 6-10 recently. But you can see the EPS moving toward a stronger omega blocking pattern now. New run Old run

Models going for a -NAO drop with a continuing omega block in the 6-10 day forecast. So this may keep the strongest heat to our west at that time. Lower heights possible over New England with high pressure to the north. So this week could turn out to be warmer than next week.

Another day with the heat records to our north.

It will be interesting to see how far north this record breaking SALcan get.

Our own version of the trade winds. Imagine if our SSTs approached the warmth around Florida.

With another dry week coming up, this will be the driest mid-April to late June from LGA to ISP. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 16 to Jun 26 Missing Count 1 2020-06-26 1.12 6 2 1965-06-26 1.51 0 3 1949-06-26 1.81 0 4 2005-06-26 1.95 0 5 1963-06-26 2.45 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation May 16 to Jun 26 Missing Count 1 2020-06-26 1.22 6 2 2005-06-26 1.34 0 3 1964-06-26 1.37 0 4 1986-06-26 1.91 0 5 1965-06-26 2.06 0

Rainfall pattern looks familiar.

Probably need to shift the blocking ridges from the Upper Midwest to east of New England. Large sections of the US have been dry this month. Parts of New England have had their driest mid-May to Mid-June on record.