bluewave

Monday looks like the flow will start out W but gradually shift SW at JFK. So probably no 100° at JFK this July.

LGA has a chance to tie the all-time record of 11 days reaching 95° during July. Looks like the warm spots can add another 3 Sun-Tue. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1999 11 0 2 2020 8 8 3 2012 7 0 - 1955 7 0

A really extreme 10 minute rainfall if this site is functioning correctly. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNJEASTB19/table/2020-07-24/2020-07-24/daily 1:39 AM 71.7 F 71.0 F 97 % NW 0.6 mph 1.1 mph 30.10 in 4.98 in 1.99 in 0 0w/m² 1:44 AM 71.9 F 71.2 F 97 % NNE 0.3 mph 0.6 mph 30.11 in 7.25 in 2.69 in 0 0w/m² 1:49 AM 72.1 F 71.4 F 97 % North 0.3 mph 0.8 mph 30.12 in 7.68 in 3.20 in 0 0

Only the 2nd time that Newark had an 80° July that was so wet. Most top 10 wettest Julys are much cooler at Newark. So it’s no surprise that the average dew point for July is the 3rd highest. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Avg Temp 1 1988 9.98 80.4 2 1984 8.65 76.5 3 2004 8.39 75.0 4 1996 8.27 73.8 5 1975 8.02 76.9 6 1938 7.96 75.5 7 1961 7.95 77.3 8 2020 7.79 80.3 9 1967 7.53 74.2 10 1969 7.11 74.2 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Another top 10 warmest July around the area. Also notice the increasing number of 80° Julys at Philly, EWR, and LGA. Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 79.7 0 - 1955 79.7 0 2 2013 79.1 0 3 2010 79.0 0 4 1901 78.7 0 5 2011 78.5 0 6 2020 78.4 9 - 2012 78.4 0 7 2019 78.2 0 8 1949 78.0 0 9 2016 77.9 0 - 1900 77.9 0 10 1898 77.8 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.4 0 2 1994 82.1 0 3 2012 81.8 0 4 2010 81.7 0 5 2020 81.5 9 - 1995 81.5 0 6 1993 81.4 0 - 1955 81.4 0 7 2016 81.2 0 8 1999 81.1 0 9 2019 80.9 0 10 1988 80.7 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 2019 80.6 0 8 1955 80.5 0 9 1988 80.4 0 10 2020 80.2 9 11 2002 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 82.8 0 2 2020 82.2 9 3 1999 81.9 0 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2013 78.5 0 2 1994 78.4 0 3 2019 78.3 0 4 2010 78.0 0 5 2020 77.8 9 6 2011 77.6 0 7 2016 77.5 0 8 1955 77.4 0 9 2012 77.3 0 - 1999 77.3 0 10 1995 77.0 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.6 0 2 2019 78.1 0 3 2013 78.0 0 - 2010 78.0 0 4 2011 77.6 0 5 1994 77.3 0 6 2020 77.0 9 7 2016 76.8 0 8 1966 76.3 0 9 2012 76.2 0 10 2008 75.9 0 Time Series Summary for ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 77.0 9 2 2018 76.5 0 - 1955 76.5 0 3 2019 76.2 0 4 2013 75.9 0 5 1949 75.3 0 6 1988 75.0 0 7 2011 74.9 0 - 2010 74.9 0 - 2006 74.9 0 8 2012 74.8 0 9 1952 74.7 0 10 1964 74.4 0 Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 77.4 9 2 1955 77.2 0 3 2013 77.1 0 4 2016 76.5 0 5 2019 76.4 0 6 2010 76.0 0 - 1993 76.0 4 7 2011 75.8 0 - 1949 75.8 0 8 2012 75.7 0 9 2006 75.3 0 10 2005 75.1 0

2nd longest 95 degree day streak at LGA of 5 days. First time since 1991 with a 5 day run. It was the first streak this long not to reach 100°. LGA only made to 97° this time. 1991 reached 101°...1953....102°....1948....103°. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 95 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2020-07-22 1 6 1953-09-02 2 5 2020-07-22 - 5 1991-07-21 - 5 1948-08-29 3 4 2016-08-14 - 4 2013-07-20 - 4 2010-07-07 - 4 2008-06-10 - 4 2006-08-03 - 4 2005-08-14 2020-07-18 95 2020-07-19 97 2020-07-20 97 2020-07-21 95 2020-07-22 95

8th day to reach 95° this month at LGA puts it in 2nd place for July. Newark airport has been getting stuck at 93°- 94° recently due to the local bay breeze. LAGUARDIA NY Jul 22 Climate: Hi: 95 Lo: 78 Precip: 0.05 Snow: 0.0 NEWARK NJ Jul 22 Climate: Hi: 94 Lo: 78 Precip: Trace Snow: 0.0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Monthly Max 1 1999 11 101 2 2020 8 97 - 2012 7 101 - 1955 7 100

ISP getting close to its first 70° average dew point July. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=ISP&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png

It would be nice if we could get access to this... https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/webprogram/Paper261494.html Monday, 5 January 2015: 1:30 PM 225AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings) Phillip E. Shafer, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB) The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has recently developed an experimental suite of station-based, Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. To date, guidance for temperature, dewpoint, wind speed and direction, sky cover, probability of precipitation, and precipitation type has been developed. One element that is important to aviation interests and public safety is thunderstorms. This paper describes the development of a MOS thunderstorm system for the ECMWF model and its performance when compared to climatology and corresponding MOS forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) models. Equations for the probability of a thunderstorm and the conditional probability of a severe thunderstorm for 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h periods were developed over the CONUS from six years of ECWMF model output. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and severe weather reports collected by the Office of Climate Water and Weather Services (OCWWS) were used to define the predictand. Results from a k-fold cross-validation test indicate the new ECMWF thunderstorm guidance is superior to corresponding GFS MOS and NAM MOS forecasts, and in some cases, forecast skill and good reliability are achieved out as far as 240 hours in advance. This guidance will be incorporated into the experimental short-range and extended-range ECMWF MOS text bulletins which are restricted to NOAA/NWS use only, and will also be available to NWS forecasters in gridded format as part of an experimental ECMWF gridded MOS suite.

LGA moves into 2nd place for the most 95° days in July. Very unusual not to have any 100° days with 7 days reaching 95° or warmer. Almost like a summer version of February 2015 when several stations couldn’t drop to 0 with it being so cold. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Monthly Max 1 1999 11 101 2 2020 7 97 - 2012 7 101 - 1955 7 100

Looks like the move was part of the transition away from MOS development to the NBM. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn20-47transition_mos_data.pdf Service Change Notification 20-47 National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD 135 OM EDT Mon April 27th, 2020 We are also alerting MOS users that MDL has discontinued active development of MOS-based guidance products, with all efforts being directed toward the National Blend of Models (NBM). NBM graphical and text products can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_home

Numerous stations that are rural and urban have their warmest July monthly minimum temperature on record so far. Several of the stations recently set or tied their record in July 2019. Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 57 10 2 2019 54 1 - 2013 54 0 - 2012 54 9 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 10 2 2019 61 0 - 2012 61 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 10 2 2019 66 0 - 1994 66 0 - 1993 66 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 10 2 2008 66 0 3 2019 65 0 - 1993 65 0 - 1970 65 0 - 1955 65 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 68 10 - 2008 68 0 3 2019 67 0 - 1994 67 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 64 10 - 2019 64 0 - 1994 64 0 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 59 10 2 2012 56 0 3 2019 55 0 - 2013 55 0 Time Series Summary for ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 59 10 2 2019 57 0 3 2008 56 0 - 2004 56 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 10 2 2019 60 0 - 1931 60 0 - 1897 60 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 58 10 2 2019 54 0 3 2013 53 0 - 2012 53 0

Sea level rise or sunny day flooding is increasing fastest over the Southeast. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-high-tide-flooding-continues-to-increase The report, 2019 State of High-Tide Flooding and 2020 Outlook, documents changes in high-tide flooding patterns from May 2019 to April 2020 at 98 NOAA tidal gauges along the U.S. coast, and provides a flooding outlook for these locations for the coming meteorological year, May 2020 to April 2021, and projections for the next several decades High-tide flooding, often referred to as "nuisance" or “sunny day” flooding, is increasingly common due to years of relative sea level increases. It occurs when tides reach anywhere from 1.75 to 2 feet above the daily average high tide and start spilling onto streets or bubbling up from storm drains. As sea level rise continues, damaging floods that decades ago happened only during a storm now happen more regularly, such as during a full-moon tide or with a change in prevailing winds or currents. In 2019, the Southeast saw a 3-fold increase in flooding days compared to the year 2000. For example, Charleston, S.C., had 13 days where flooding reached damaging levels, compared to only two days typical in 2000. Along the Western Gulf, percentage increases were the highest, greater than 5-fold. In Texas, Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi had 21 and 18 flooding days in 2019, and in 2000 those locations would typically only experience about one and three days, respectively. "As a Chesapeake Bay resident, I see the flooding first hand and it is getting worse. Records seem to be set every year," said William Sweet, Ph.D., an oceanographer for NOAA’s National Ocean Service and lead author of the report. "Communities are straddled with this growing problem. Fortunately, NOAA’s tide gauge network is keeping a close watch and helping us provide guidance about the disruptive flooding

The 79° dew point at ISP and 79° minimum at FRG were probably the two most impressive records for Long Island. The FRG data only goes back to 2000. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79 11 - 2019 79 0 - 2013 79 0 - 2002 79 0

We need better downtown representation since our airports are subject to sea breezes.

Looks like more 95°+ potential by Sunday and Monday as 850 mb temperatures return to +20C. 850 hPa temperature / 500 hPa geopotential Tuesday 21 Jul, 12 UTC T+144 Valid: Monday 27 Jul, 12 UTC

Peak SSTs up a few more degrees to 81° now. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1850 81 150/ 8/ 10 1015.9 2/ 6 20 S Fire Island 1850 110/ 2/ 4 1016.5 2/ 6 Great South Bay NOT AVBL 23 SSW Montauk P 1840 80 75 200/ 4/ 6 1016.7 15 E Barnegat Li 1826 81 N/A 2/ 6 Hudson Canyon 1850 77 1017.4 3/ 6 Kings Point 1830 87 190/ 8/ 11 1016.5 Execution Rocks 1830 86 180/ 4/ 6 N/A Western LI Sound 1730 83 100/ 4/ 6 N/A Central LI Sound NOT AVBL Robbins Reef 1830 80 180/ 17/ 18 1016.1

Fay only dropped the SSTs for 3 days before they rebounded again.

Just a brief SST drop before rising again.

Ocean temperatures running near 80° STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1540 79 160/ 4/ 6 1016.5 20 S Fire Island 1540 100/ 4/ 4 1016.7 Great South Bay NOT AVBL 23 SSW Montauk P 1550 78 75 CALM / 2 1016.9 3/ 7 15 E Barnegat Li 1526 79 N/A 2/ 6 Hudson Canyon 1550 77 1017.7 2/ 6 Kings Point 1524 82 50/ 5/ 5 1017.4 Execution Rocks 1530 81 80/ 4/ 4 N/A Western LI Sound 1445 81 190/ 2/ 4 N/A Central LI Sound NOT AVBL Robbins Reef 1524 81 170/ 16/ 17 1016.8

Having so many 95° or warmer days this July, it would be a oddity for LGA not to reach 100°. With the heat in the forecast, LGA could finish in 2nd place for the most 95° or warmer days in July. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Monthly Max 1 1999 11 101 2 2012 7 101 - 1955 7 100 3 2020 6 97 - 2013 6 100 - 2010 6 103 - 2002 6 98 - 1991 6 101 - 1966 6 107

80° Julys have become more common since 2010 at LGA and EWR. These July average temperatures are considered normal for areas around DC. DAILY NORMALS AND RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY FOR WASHINGTON DC NORMALS BASED ON PERIOD 1981-2010 MONTHLY NORMALS: MAX 88.4 MIN 71.1 AVG 79.8 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2020 81.8 11 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 2019 80.6 0 8 1955 80.5 0 9 1988 80.4 0 10 2002 80.0 0 11 2020 79.9 11 - 2016 79.9 0

97° was the highest temperature around the area last 2 days at LGA. So we continue the pattern of the warmest July temperatures coming around the 20th. It will be interesting to see if next week can beat 97°for a late monthly max. Highest July temperature and date at EWR or LGA since 2010 7-19/20-20.....97 7-21-19........100 7-1-18...........98 7-20-17.........98 7-23/25-16...99 7-19-15.........98 7-2-14...........96 7-18-13........101 7-18-12........104 7-22-11........108 7-6-10..........103

Yeah, 5 hourly records or ties for the month of July today at ISP.

Looks like a 79° dew point at ISP now. New July record for 8am. Notice how many new hourly July records in recent years. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&month=jul&var=max_dwpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png