bluewave

Looks like the heat will peak sometime in the June 6-12 range. EPS hinting at the next step down in temperatures around mid-June. Notice how volatile the PNA has been since mid-May. Record warmth around May 22nd and record cold during Memorial Day weekend. So we can’t lock any single pattern for more than a week at a time. The high amplitude PNA swings are reminiscent of what occurred with the AO back in February into the spring. It’s as if the wild gyrations were handed off from one index to another. Probably a research topic for someone with an advanced enough computer modeling access. These rapid oscillations have been a common feature in recent years.

Only to remove the D0 abnormally dry conditions in our region. The areas that have been in serious drought across the West to the NorthernTier didn’t get much rain from this system. So we were one of the few lucky spots.

Early June temperature departure pattern following where the wettest and driest conditions have been during the spring. Warmest departures over the dry Northern Tier which has been experiencing drought. Cooler temperature anomalies to the south with the record rains in Texas.

It will depend on the strength and location of the ridge axis. Temperatures usually top out in the low to mid 90s this time of year if the flow is too onshore. W to NW flow is needed to reach the upper 90s. Plus we have rain coming in again in a few days on top of the heavy rains we just experienced. So the previous Junes that made it to 100 were much drier. You can see the current Euro with more onshore flow. So the warmest highs go to our north like we have seen in recent years. Models usually need to get within 120 hrs to know the correct wind direction.

Top 10 warmest spring across the area. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 57.6 0 2 2010 57.4 0 3 1985 56.2 0 4 1991 56.0 0 5 1977 55.3 0 6 2016 54.9 0 - 2011 54.9 0 - 1945 54.9 0 7 2021 54.8 1 8 2004 54.7 0 - 1998 54.7 0 - 1986 54.7 0 9 2000 54.5 0 10 1973 54.4 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 57.4 0 - 2010 57.4 0 2 1991 56.5 0 3 2016 55.3 0 4 2006 54.7 0 - 1945 54.7 0 5 2021 54.5 1 - 1998 54.5 0 - 1985 54.5 0 6 1986 54.1 0 - 1977 54.1 0 7 1976 54.0 0 8 2017 53.9 0 - 1942 53.9 0 9 2000 53.8 0 10 2004 53.6 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 54.1 0 2 2010 53.6 0 3 1991 52.9 0 4 2016 51.3 0 - 1977 51.3 0 5 1998 51.2 0 6 2021 51.0 1 - 2011 51.0 0 - 1985 51.0 0 7 1999 50.7 0 8 2002 50.6 0 9 1986 50.5 0 10 1979 50.4 0 - 1973 50.4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 55.5 0 - 2010 55.5 0 2 1985 54.1 0 3 1991 54.0 0 4 1979 53.2 0 5 1973 53.0 0 6 2016 52.9 0 7 1986 52.6 0 8 2021 52.4 1 - 2011 52.4 0 9 2004 52.3 0 10 1981 52.1 0 - 1977 52.1 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 54.3 0 2 2010 53.7 0 3 1991 52.8 0 4 2016 51.5 0 5 1979 51.3 0 6 2021 51.1 1 - 1985 51.1 0 7 1986 50.5 0 8 2011 50.4 0 - 1998 50.4 0 - 1977 50.4 0 9 2020 50.3 0 - 2017 50.3 0 - 1955 50.3 0 10 1974 50.2 0

9th wettest May for parts of Long Island Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1989 10.14 0 2 1984 9.43 0 3 1990 8.94 0 4 1998 7.87 0 5 1978 6.87 0 6 1966 6.09 0 7 2009 5.88 0 8 1972 5.82 0 9 2021 5.12 1 10 2019 5.05 0

Updated for a maximum of 3.72 at Upton, NY. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202105310157-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

Suffolk is in the lead… CWOP ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... MILLER PLACE 3.40 IN 1231 PM 05/30 CWOP ORIENT 3.26 IN 1230 PM 05/30 CWOP BAITING HOLLOW 3.22 IN 1255 PM 05/30 CWOP SOUTHOLD 3.21 IN 1250 PM 05/30 NYSM RIDGE 3.19 IN 1234 PM 05/30 CWOP LAKE RONKONKOMA 3.07 IN 1230 PM 05/30 CWOP NORTH PATCHOGUE 3.06 IN 1233 PM 05/30 CWOP CUTCHOGUE 3.05 IN 1231 PM 05/30 CWOP WEST BABYLON 3.05 IN 1233 PM 05/30 CWOP EAST SETAUKET 3.04 IN 1232 PM 05/30 CWOP EASTPORT 3.02 IN 1245 PM 05/30 RAWS ISLIP AIRPORT 3.02 IN 1156 AM 05/30 ASOS

Should finally get some slow clearing on Monday. Drier NW flow into the afternoon. 65-70 will seem warm after this weekend.

This was the most extreme May high temperature drop at Newark following a 96° or higher temperature. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Lowest Max Temperature 1 1996 99 61……-38 2 1992 98 63……-35 - 1987 98 96……..-2 - 1962 98 67…..-31 3 1965 97 69…..-28 4 2021 96 52……-44 - 2016 96 83…..-13 - 1969 96 85…..-11 - 1964 96 68……-28

Long Island is climbing up the list of the heaviest May rainstorms. This was updated through midnight. More heavy rain moving in off the Atlantic now. Maximum 4-Day Total Precipitation for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 5.27 1984-05-31 0 2 5.04 1989-05-19 0 - 0 - 0 3 4.29 1990-05-19 0 - 0 - 0 4 4.18 1998-05-11 0 0 0 0 0 5 3.17 1966-05-22 0 6 3.13 2003-05-26 0 0 0 - 0 0 7 2.85 2011-05-19 0 8 2.84 2021-05-29 0

The ridge is forecast to be so strong, that the warmest temperatures initially go to the north of the area. We saw this quite a bit during recent summers. Looks like like a higher dewpoint southerly flow regime for us. Our warmest temperatures will probably arrive when some of the heat directed to north drops south over the ridge.

May 29th is the new latest in the season to reach a 52° or lower maximum temperature at Newark. 5-27-61 was the previous record holder. This is what happens when you beat a daily low max by 8° RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 248 AM SUN MAY 30 2021 ...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE) OF 52 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 60 SET IN 1950. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1961 05-27 (1961) 49 10-15 (1961) 51 140 1967 05-25 (1967) 48 11-05 (1967) 47 163 1957 05-20 (1957) 52 10-26 (1957) 48 158 1976 05-19 (1976) 52 10-17 (1976) 50 150 1950 05-19 (1950) 50 11-11 (1950) 46 175 2019 05-14 (2019) 52 11-08 (2019) 41 177 1931 05-13 (1931) 50 11-06 (1931) 45 176 2010 05-12 (2010) 49 11-01 (2010) 51 172 1963 05-11 (1963) 52 10-30 (1963) 50 171

The maximum cold departure was more impressive than the warm departure last Saturday. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 434 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2021 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 96 109 PM 98 1992 74 22 77 MINIMUM 64 921 AM 44 1957 56 8 52 CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 432 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2021 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 29 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 52 259 PM 97 1987 76 -24 86 MINIMUM 49 930 AM 40 1936 58 -9 68 AVERAGE 51 67 -16 77

The ski resorts could have used this pattern on Christmas when it poured.

I believe this is the first time since 82-83 that Newark had a cooler Memorial Day weekend high temperature than Christmas. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1982-12-25 68 40 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1983-05-28 68 48 1983-05-29 63 57 1983-05-30 71 61 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2020-12-25 62 28 High so far of 51°

These big weather swings have become the new normal.

Newark is on track to beat the record low max of 60° today. Newark has never had a record low max during the last week of May with a 96° monthly high temperature. This exceeds the 1953 May maximum temperature of 91° by 5°. All the other years had 0-1 days reach 90° in May vs 4 days this year. Newark Area, NJ Version: 16.1 (created 2021-05-25) Period of record: 1931 through 2020DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 5/25 48 in 1967 54 in 2005 54 in 1934 5/26 57 in 1967 58 in 2003 58 in 1934 5/27 49 in 1961 59 in 1973 60 in 1974 5/28 57 in 1968 58 in 1950 61 in 1996+ 5/29 60 in 1950 60 in 1940 61 in 2017+ 5/30 53 in 1953 59 in 2017 64 in 2000+ 5/31 61 in 1953 63 in 1992 63 in 1984 May maximum temperatures 1967…..82 1961…..86 1968….79 1950….83 1953…..91 2021…..96

Western to Central Suffolk jackpot zone so far. 5/29/2021 6:00 AM NY-SF-84 Centereach 1.3 NE 2.32 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk 5/29/2021 6:11 AM NY-SF-85 Patchogue 0.9 SE 2.11 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk 5/29/2021 6:35 AM NY-SF-142 Setauket-East Setauket 1.0 S 2.03 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk 5/29/2021 7:00 AM NY-SF-34 Bay Shore 0.5 ESE 2.41 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk 5/29/2021 8:00 AM NY-SF-148 Mattituck 1.6 SSE 2.20 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk 5/29/2021 8:25 AM NY-SF-77 Nesconset 1.4 SSW 2.15 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk Active | Static 5/29/2021 8:30 AM NY-SF-100 Port Jefferson Station 0.3 SSW 2.32 NA | NA NA | NA NY Suffolk

The 2.37 so far at ISP is 3rd the heaviest rainstorm for the last week of May. So with the rainfall in the forecast, Long Island is in track for the heaviest last week of May rainfall since 1984. I will also update the May monthly rainfall records as the rainfall totals increase. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KISP&table=1&num=168&banner=off 29 May 7:56 am 48 45 89 NE 18G35 10.00 BKN014,OVC018 29.81 1013.2 29.92 T 0.55 2.37 Maximum 4-Day Total Precipitation for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 5.27 1984-05-31 0 0 2 2.90 2003-05-29 0 3 2.37 2021-05-29 0

This was one of the greatest May temperature drops in a week on record. While the site below uses hourly readings, JFK is 46° cooler than the record high of 94° last Saturday. So our record weather swings pattern continues. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&hours=159&month=may&dir=cool&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The wetter extremes have been winning out since the 1960s. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/4/jcli-d-11-00723.1.xml 4. Discussion The new reconstruction of drought for the NYC watershed highlights two important aspects of regional hydroclimatic history. First, while the 1960s drought is still among the most intense droughts over the last 500 years, it interrupts a multicentennial trend of increasing moisture availability that has continued through 2011. Second, the new record gives greater insight regarding the spatial extent and severity of the megadroughts during the 1500s and provides greater temporal and spatial insight into droughts during the 1600s. Two other important outcomes of this work are that 1) an improved depiction of historical droughts and the long-term trend of increasing moisture availability should be useful for understanding the complex climate dynamics in the eastern United States and 2) the reconstruction’s strength appears to be partly derived from high tree species replication. We will detail the implications of the regional hydroclimatic history, methodological aspects of the tree-ring based NYC watershed reconstruction, and its potential societal impacts in the following sections. a. Multicentennial trend toward pluvial conditions One of the most prominent trends in the NYC watershed reconstruction is the general trend toward pluvial conditions since ca. 1800. The magnitude of drought events after the 1827 pluvial is less than in prior centuries and becomes nearly nil after the 1960s drought (Fig. 4a). Perhaps as striking is the trend of reduced drought intensity since the late eighteenth century (Fig. 4b). The trend of increasing pluvial conditions is not limited to the NYC watershed region either; instead, it appears to be a local expression of a broader hydroclimatic change across the eastern United States (Fig. 6). Independent analyses have indicated wetter conditions since the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in three separate regions (Stahle et al. 1988; Stahle and Cleaveland 1992, 1994; E. R. Cook et al. 2010; McEwan et al. 2011). Here we show that the recent trend of increased wetness in the NYC watershed generally matches five regionally-distinct, tree-ring records of paleodrought drawn from the NADA. Much of the eastern United States has been unusually and somewhat persistently wet since the late 1800s. Almost all of these records indicate more pluvial conditions since the late 1950s. The only event that stands out from this large-scale pattern of change is the unusually severe 1960s drought. Since that event, our reconstruction indicates that this region of the northeastern United States has been experiencing the strongest pluvial conditions in the eastern United States. Five records of hydroclimate variability across the eastern United States. The new NYC drought reconstruction now provides evidence that the sixteenth century megadrought (Stahle et al. 2000) extended up into the northeastern United States and that the trend toward more pluvial conditions is present in five independent records across much of the eastern United States. Each line is a 20-yr spline of the each annual record. The dashed line is the mean of each record’s mean. Citation: Journal of Climate 26, 4; 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00723.1 The instrumental record further supports our finding that recent pluvial events in the NYC region are at the upper limit of hydroclimatic variability for the last 500 years. Even though the 2006–09 pluvial is virtually unrivaled, 2011 goes beyond the 2006–09 event: the 2011 May–August average PDSI value is 3.72, including a value of 5.64 for August. The August 2011 PDSI value is the highest instrumental calculation for any month since 1895. Further, the only monthly PDSI values in the instrumental record greater than 5.0 occur after 2003 (n = 4). And, of the 20 highest monthly PDSI instrumental values, only one occurred prior to 1975 (a value of 4.48 in October 1955)—70% of the 20 wettest months occur after 2000. Both paleo- and instrumental records point out that the recent decade of pluvial conditions is at the upper end of hydroclimatic variability over the last 100 and 500 years (Figs. 1 and 5), which likely accounts for the lack of water emergencies since 2002. Taken at face value, all these data suggest the long-term trend in pluvial conditions is unusual over the last 500 years.

It’s too difficult to sustain dry conditions for an extended period in our new wetter climate. We just got upgraded to D0 dry conditions yesterday. So it didn’t take long for the heavy rains to come after that update. Hard to believe the last time NYC had water restrictions was back in 2001-2002.

Wind direction is everything in the NY Bight. This is especially true when our biggest airports are right on the water. The 22nd was an extremely dry offshore flow heat event. So both EWR and JFK were located in the warmest zones. Also notice how the NW flow off the East River kept LGA cooler than both the Astoria and Corona new micronet stations. The ASOS at LGA is in the extreme NW corner of the airport near the water. The JFK ASOS is located in a marshy area in the eastern edge of the airport. Not far from North Woodmere in the five towns section of Long Island. Since the sea breeze was so strong yesterday east of NYC, EWR and the new fresh kills station were the warmest in the region. All the Newark Bay Breeze days last few summers allowed LGA to beat EWR on numerous occasions. 5-26 maximum temperatures EWR…..94 Fresh Kills….92 Astoria……….87 Corona………86 LGA….86 Brownsville…..81 South Ozone Park…79 JFK…75 5-22 EWR…..96 JFK…….94 Brownsville….94 South Ozone Park….93 Corona……..92 Astoria……..91 Fresh Kills….91 LGA…..88

Since Memorial Day moved to the last Monday in May in 1971, the closest Newark came was 2003. It had a high in the 50s on Saturday and Monday. The high made it to 61 on Sunday. So two out of the three extended weekend days maxed out in the 50s. But the high for May 2003 at Newark only made it to 81 with a -4.4 monthly cold departure. This is much different from the high of 96 this May and +2.6 so far. So a continuation of the big weather swings that have become common in recent years. Newark Sat…..5-24-03….58/52 Sun….5-25-03…..61/53 Mon..5-26-03…..58/51