bluewave

While March 2012 was our warmest March on record, the monthly highest temperature wasn’t that impressive. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 89 0 2 1998 86 0 - 1990 86 0 3 2021 84 0 - 1985 84 0 - 1977 84 0 4 1989 83 0 - 1986 83 0 5 2016 82 0 - 1938 82 0 6 2020 80 0 - 2011 80 0 - 2007 80 0 - 1962 80 0 - 1946 80 0 7 2012 79 0 - 1968 79 0 - 1963 79 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 51.3 0 2 1945 50.6 0 3 2016 49.1 0 4 1946 48.8 0 5 1973 48.6 0 6 2010 48.2 0 7 2020 47.9 0 8 2000 47.8 0 9 1977 46.7 0 10 1979 46.2 0 11 2021 45.6 0

Very warm first week of March across the area with Newark at +4.7. The high of 76 was the 2nd warmest on record for the first week of March. It’s currently the 2nd warmest start to March since 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 7 Missing Count 1 1972-03-07 78 0 2 2022-03-07 76 0 3 1976-03-07 75 0 - 1964-03-07 75 0 - 1946-03-07 75 0 4 2017-03-07 73 0 - 1961-03-07 73 0 5 2009-03-07 72 0 - 1987-03-07 72 0 - 1974-03-07 72 0 6 1991-03-07 71 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 7 Missing Count 1 2020-03-07 45.3 0 2 2022-03-07 43.8 0 3 2011-03-07 42.6 0 4 2010-03-07 42.3 0 5 2012-03-07 41.9 0 6 2018-03-07 41.4 0 7 2017-03-07 39.9 0 8 2016-03-07 39.3 0 9 2013-03-07 37.9 0 10 2021-03-07 34.8 0 11 2019-03-07 29.9 0 12 2014-03-07 28.2 0 13 2015-03-07 28.1 0

70 mph peak gust in PA.

It will be interesting to see if this can go negative tilt fast enough for Northern New England to challenge their March low pressure records. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html

The Euro is going for something similar to last summer. Zonal ridge with centers east of New England and near the PAC NW. So a mix of heat and higher dew points. JJA 2022 forecast JJA 2021 forecast from March 2021 Verification JJA 2021

The models lost the blocking that they were showing for mid-March from Alaska to Northern Greenland. New Mar 14-21 Old run for Mar 14-21

Warmer than average March for our area on the extended EPS as the SE Ridge dominates. Mar 7-14 Mar 14-21 Mar 21-28

Imagine how many more record highs NYC would have during the warm season if they properly maintained that site. As soon as the leaves drop the record highs arrive. That’s why there were more 90° days before the trees over grew the site in the 1990s. Today is the 4th record high or tie since December. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 109 PM EST MON MAR 7 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED SO FAR TODAY AT CENTRAL PARK NY... THE TEMPERATURE AT CENTRAL PARK NY REACHED 74 JUST AFTER 1 PM. THIS TIES THE RECORD OF 74 LAST SET IN 1946. THIS RECORD REPORT WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY WITH THE FINAL HIGH TEMPERATURE. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 456 PM EST SUN MAR 06 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 68 SET IN 1935. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 201 PM EST THU FEB 17 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 67 SET IN 1976. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT IF A HIGHER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 120 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SET IN 1879.

The record warmth is allowing the LLJ to mix down in NJ.

It was a bit of an unusual twist that our snowiest season in 95-96 occurred during the longest period with no SSWs.

Already at the record of 75° at Newark. Newark Liberty CLOUDY 75 54 47 SW25G36 29.70F

This one?

These big AO and NAO swings from year to year and sometimes month to month have become the new normal. This year the progressive +AO +NAO favored eastern sections for the heaviest snows. Last winter the heaviest snows were further to the west with the near record -AO and tucked in storm track.

The warm spots across the region could make a run on 75° today before the strong to potentially severe squall line later today.

Looks like a tie so far in NYC and EWR.

Starting to get some record highs with the breaks of sun.

We’ll have to see if we can get another El Niño going by the fall. Very difficult to forecast the ENSO during the current spring forecast barrier. But it looks like the current more La Niña-like pattern will continue a while longer. The last 5 years have been unprecedented for the strength of the SE Ridge. Notice how much it has increased in the means over 5 year increments. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/21/this-weird-february-heat-dome-on-the-east-coast-could-be-unprecedented/

The Western Pacific has warmed faster than the Eastern Pacific. So this increases the trade winds which keep the La Niña background state going. Remember how the developing El Niño suddenly reversed around Labor Day in 2012? Then the next El Niño in 14-15 came in weaker than forecast before rebounding to super El Niño in 15-16. The 18-19 El Niño never fully coupled with the atmosphere due to the record SSTs in the WPAC. https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2019/06/24/pacific-ocean-cold-tongue/ Thus the real-world cold tongue warms less than the waters over the tropical west Pacific or off the equator to the north and south. This pattern of sea-surface temperature change then causes the trade winds to strengthen, which lifts the cold subsurface water upward, further cooling the cold tongue.

The La Niña background state and that record warm pool keep the persistent SE Ridge pattern going this month.

The weakening MJO may have reduced the chances of transitioning to an El Niño. So looks like another active hurricane season coming up.The La Niña background state has been very persistent since 16-17.

Sunday into Monday looks like a classic early spring warm up that favors areas away from the shore. 65-70 for the warm spots on Sunday. Then 70-75 away from the shore on Monday. Very strong onshore flow Monday with 40-50 mph gusts ahead of the cold front for Long Island. We’ll see if we can get a decent low topped squall line for later on Monday.

They have designed this one to be safer than the current battery technology used in EVs. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/apple-veteran-mujeeb-ijaz-wins-bill-gatess-backing-for-michigan-battery-startup/ Amid a boom in electric-vehicle production and a race for innovations that improve these new cars’ range and cost, battery startup Our Next Energy said Monday it has raised $25 million in a fresh fundraising round. The investment in ONE, as the company is known, was led by Bill Gates’s Breakthrough Energy Ventures. The year-old startup, based in Novi, Michigan, says it has engineered a way to eke out higher ranges from lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, a more stable but less powerful chemistry than the nickel-based batteries used by most automakers today. “The whole foundation of the industry right now is being built on nickel-cobalt,” said Mujeeb Ijaz, ONE’s founder and CEO. “Because range was so important to the end customer, that was seen as the only way to get there. We’re offering an alternative.” ONE’s innovation lies in the way it designs battery packs, which it plans to build a factory in Michigan to assemble. Ijaz, a veteran of Apple’s secretive car project, said he’s landed his first customer, an EV startup that makes medium-duty delivery trucks. He declined to name the customer but said production will start in November 2022. The growth of the electric-vehicle market has brought challenges for the industry, including a shortage of batteries and soaring prices for raw materials such as nickel and cobalt, the latter of which is fraught with ethical issues. Nickel, the metal the auto industry largely relies on today to provide power and range, is prone to fire, a risk the industry is spending billions to control. That’s driving automakers, battery manufacturers and startups — including ONE — to seek less costly alternatives. ONE uses lithium-iron-phosphate, or LFP batteries, which are cheaper and less fire-prone than nickel-based chemistries. Typically, that approach would mean sacrificing power and range for stability, but the startup claims it’s solved that problem. “We think he’s ahead of the curve,” said Libby Wayman, who leads the transportation team at Breakthrough Energy Ventures and sits on the board of ONE. “This is the beginning of a trend where people will look to alternative chemistries to achieve energy density, safety, supply-chain optionality, and supply-chain redundancy.” Also investing in the latest round were Assembly Ventures, BMW iVentures, electronics-manufacturing company Flex, and Volta Energy Technologies. Gates is Breakthrough’s chairman and investors include Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Michael R. Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent company Bloomberg LP. A typical battery in an electric vehicle stores a lot of energy — enough to power the average U.S. home for about 2.5 days. So it’s a formidable engineering feat to ensure these cars are safe, even as large amounts of electricity are used to charge them or propel them around town. To mitigate fire risk, manufacturers use filler material that helps ensure the battery doesn’t heat up too much, along with electronics to ensure all the cells charge equally. ONE’s innovation has been to find ways to cut down on the filler material, which enables them to add more cells, and thus store more energy, without increasing the size and cost of the battery pack. Ijaz has spent three decades focusing on powering EVs. He conducted battery research at Ford and was chief technology officer at battery manufacturer A123 Systems until he was poached by Apple in 2014. He returned to Michigan last year to launch his startup and hired former colleagues from A123, saying he felt the auto industry had reached an inflection point with electrification. EV batteries are made of cells, which are bundled into modules, and then arranged in a pack to optimize power while mitigating fire risk. ONE is using a simpler and cheaper engineering approach called “cell-to-pack,” which skips the need for modules. ONE isn’t the first or the only company to take this approach. It was pioneered in China by players like SVOLT Energy Technology. The world’s largest battery supplier, China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology, or CATL, sells it to customers today, including Tesla. Ijaz says ONE’s technology outperforms what other makers have been able to accomplish so far. He pointed to an internal analysis of how much energy is stored in the battery pack per unit of volume — a crucial consideration because EVs have limited space for batteries. Higher energy density for the pack means an EV can theoretically have long driving range. ONE’s analysis showed its packs are made up of 76% cells and yield 287 watt-hours per liter (Wh/L) of energy density. By comparison, the analysis showed the pack from a Tesla Model 3 using LFP chemistry was made of 49% cells and yielded 173 Wh/L. As nickel prices climb, other automakers are looking at using the cell-to-pack approach to get more power out of LFP batteries, said Jim Greenberger, executive director of NAATBatt, a non-profit trade association for advanced battery technology in North America. “If the nickel crisis never comes, I’m not sure much will come of LFP chemistry, because it’s not as powerful,” Greenberger said in an interview. “But if nickel prices do prove volatile, or automakers don’t want to take the risk of nickel proving volatile, you may see more people using LFP technologies.”

This new battery technology may be a game changer.

The SE Ridge or WAR has been the dominant player since the record breaking event in December 2015. So we have seen both record warmth and record snowstorms over this period. But no sustained cold with the last 7 winters coming in with above normal temperatures. The record warm pool was found to really enhance the snowfall and storm intensity in events like the January 2016 blizzard and December 2020 interior jackpot snowstorm. We just needed blocking to force the storm track to our SE for a cold enough for snow solution.