bluewave

Very persistent easterly flow pattern for the whole month so far.

I wonder if this is the first time that the same cutoff low caused rain on two consecutive Saturdays? May 7th May 14th

This has to be one of the longer duration cutoffs we have seen in recent years.

You know it’s an over the top warm up when Caribou gets to 90° before Newark.

It continues to looks like the period around or just after the 20th will feature the first 90s potential of the season for the local warm spots. It’s impressive how the first 90° day of the year has been steady around May 20th since 1981 at Newark. But the first 70° has moved up a month from March 27th in 1981 to near March 1st in 2021. The first 70° in late February and the early bloom this year fit the pattern also. So an earlier start to spring while summer hasn’t moved up in time. This pattern is reversed in the fall with the last 90° occurring later creating the endless summer pattern.

Getting some elevated convection south of us now.

Our highest dewpoints of the season so far. MacArthur/ISP CLOUDY 74 65 73 SE7

The most extreme heat record with this May over the top heatwave was the new May all-time high temperature of 96° at Traverse City, Michigan. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 0127 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2022 ...RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TRAVERSE CITY MI... ...DAILY RECORDS SET AT TRAVERSE CITY, GAYLORD, AND PELLSTON... YESTERDAY, CHERRY CAPITAL AIRPORT IN TRAVERSE CITY HAD A HIGH OF 96 DEGREES. THIS SETS THE ALL-TIME WARMEST TEMPERATURE IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 95 HAS BEEN REACHED FOUR TIMES PREVIOUSLY IN MAY, MOST RECENTLY ON MAY 29 2018. THIS ALSO SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR YESTERDAYS DATE, MAY 12, WHICH WAS 86 DEGREES, SET IN 1944. THIS IS ALSO THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR IN WHICH TRAVERSE CITY HAS HIT 95 DEGREES OR WARMER. THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST 95 READING WAS ON MAY 20 1977. OTHER RECORDS BROKEN YESTERDAY... THE GAYLORD REGIONAL AIRPORT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 84 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1991. THE PELLSTON AIRPORT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 87 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2004.

This Is the first time we had such a negative April anomaly following a second-year La Niña. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2022-enso-update-piece-cake At -1.1 °C, April 2022 was tied with 1950 for the strongest negative April anomaly in the 1950–present record. That’s according to ERSSTv5, our most reliable long-term sea surface temperature observationdataset. In the context of repeat La Niña events, the April average anomaly was noticeably stronger than any of the other 8 second-year La Niñas.

The main feature with a cutoff to our south is easterly flow. So we had clouds in the morning with sun in the afternoon and fog by the evening. It finally lifts north the next few days with some scattered showers as the low moves to our west. So the warm spots in NJ will see some 80s from Sunday into Monday with SW flow. Next weekend could be the first 90s of the season for the usual warm spots. We had one cooler run at 12z yesterday. But the 0z guidance is back to the warmer idea.

This is a much weaker version of the May 2020 over the top heatwave. That one produced the May all-time high of 95° at BTV while we were much cooler. So record heat directed to our NW is becoming more common with these record 500 mb ridges. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/28/montreal-record-may-heat/

Almost a week now that this cutoff has been stuck under the near record 588 dm block. So more of the same for our area. Scattered clouds and 60s near the shore today with onshore flow. Record heat potential well into the 80s over the interior Northeast.

Another one of these famous over the top warm ups that have become so common in recent years. High of 82° in BTV today with record warmth possible in the coming days. CLIMATE... Record daily high temperatures are possible on Thursday, Friday and Saturday 5/12-14. Here are the current records at our climate sites: Date KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK 5/12 84|2004 82|2004 85|2004 86|1992 83|1956 84|1911 5/13 84|1985 82|1985 77|2011 83|1992 86|1985 84|2004 5/14 86|1961 85|1961 85|2004 87|2004 84|1961 83|2004

Yeah, matches all the record high dewpoints and flash flood events in recent years.

Earliest 78° low on record for Topeka, Kansas by over 3 weeks. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 138 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2022 ...MONTHLY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT TOPEKA KS... YESTERDAY'S LOW TEMPERATURE AT TOPEKA'S BILLARD AIRPORT WAS 78 DEGREES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 10. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 75 DEGREES...SET IN 2011. THIS ALSO SETS THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 DEGREES...SET ON MAY 25, 1896...MAY 26, 2012...AND MAY 31, 2000.

This has been one of those rare times with easterly flow lasting for 2 weeks.

JFK only made it to 95° during the 1977 heatwave. We had strong sea breezes with that event along the South Shore. The SSTs were much cooler in the 1970s especially after the record breaking cold 76-77 winter. Data for January 1, 1977 through December 31, 1977 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101 NY WEST POINT COOP 101 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 101 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 100 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 100 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 100 NY SCARSDALE COOP 100 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 99 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 99 NY SUFFERN COOP 99 CT DANBURY COOP 99 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 99 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 99 CT GROTON COOP 99 NY CARMEL COOP 98 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 98 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 97 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 97 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 97 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 97 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 97 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 97 NY MINEOLA COOP 97 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 96 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 96 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 95 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 94 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 94 CT WESTBROOK COOP 93 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 93 NY MONTAUK COOP 93 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 93 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 91

The whole area has gotten much hotter. But the tree growth at NYC is masking the summer daytime warming. If anything, the LGA ASOS is too close to the water. So it’s subject to cooler breezes at times. Last summer the warmest part of NYC was in Central Queens just south of LGA. The 6-30-21 high at LGA was 100° and 102° at Corona. So that section of Queens was comparable to the area around Newark.The new micronet snapshot from early afternoon illustrated what was happening. There was a local convergence zone just north of the sea breeze front. The warmth probably was enhanced by some local downsloping off the higher moraine.

Even this NYT story from July 1977 highlights that Central Park was warmer than LGA before the tree growth. Central Park actually had the highest temperature readings during the famous July 1977 heatwave. This isn’t possible anymore with the dense vegetation around the thermometer. https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park. Much different than this more recent article in 2013. https://pix11.com/news/baked-apple-new-yorkers-sweating-through-worst-heatwave-of-the-summer/ “[The Central Park Conservancy is] almost making it like a shaded, tropical rainforest, so to speak,” said Schlacter about the weather station’s location, which is surrounded by lush, green trees, bushes and weeds that grew even thicker in the near-record rains of this past spring. “It’s keeping temperatures cooler than some of the true urban areas,” Schlacter said. A more accurate reading, according to Schlacter, “We actually like Newark Airport to represent what everybody feels in the five boroughs [and beyond].” Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 93 73 1977-07-14 92 73 1977-07-15 96 72 1977-07-16 98 75 1977-07-17 97 78 1977-07-18 100 78 1977-07-19 102 78 1977-07-20 92 75 1977-07-21 104 78 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 92 73 1977-07-14 91 73 1977-07-15 93 71 1977-07-16 97 72 1977-07-17 99 77 1977-07-18 98 75 1977-07-19 100 78 1977-07-20 90 75 1977-07-21 102 78 Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-13 92 72 1977-07-14 89 72 1977-07-15 90 69 1977-07-16 96 72 1977-07-17 95 74 1977-07-18 95 76 1977-07-19 99 75 1977-07-20 90 74 1977-07-21 99 78

We are getting to the point when a summer is considered cool with under 30 days reaching 90° away from the influence of the sea breeze. The 90s had numerous years with higher 90° day counts. But it also had lower count years mixed in. Very tough to get lower count years these days.

It will be interesting to see how things turn out. This is one of the strongest La Niña patterns that we have seen in May. But it’s tough to use old analogs since our summers have become much hotter since 2010.

The wildcard this summer may be how the rare continuation of the La Niña into a 3rd year plays out. We already had 4 consecutive above normal summers for warmth since 2018. Maybe we can catch a break on the heat relative to the last several years. But cooler summers have been tough to come by since 2010. Even less warm would feel cool compared to all the record summer heat since 2010.

Very comfortable spring temperatures for our area the next few weeks. The record breaking heat stays to our north and west this week. Then the trough returns next week with cooler to near seasonable temperatures. EPS May 9-16 May 16-23

It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10.

I wonder what our record is for consecutive days with an easterly component to the wind? The easterlies began back on Friday. The models all continue the easterly flow into next weekend as the cutoff gets stuck under the near record 588 dm block over New England.