bluewave

Summer temperatures were close to average for the warmer 1991-2020 climate normals period. Rainfall was above average north and below average south. Seems like the Driscoll Bridge was the dividing line between above and below average rainfall.

This event is unique and nothing like the stronger Pre-1980 evolutions. Just go into the data pages from the strongest events during that era and you can see the differences. Notice how much warmer Nino 1+2 and 3 is along with Nino 4 is now. Nino 3.4 is a little cooler this time. Also take note how much warmer the entire WPAC is now. You can also see the S and W displacement of the forcing away from the equator which was previously the norm.

I was wondering if the lingering -PDO cold tongue to the SW of a Baja May be playing a role?

Kind of odd how the strongest VP anomalies were displaced into the Southern Hemisphere near 30S instead of on the equator and northl like we typically see during stronger El Niño’s this time of year.

It will be interesting to see how things play out since the subsurface evolution with this event has been very unique.

Rainy morning here at KHVN.

While the relationship isn’t exact, the last 3 super El Niño’s had OHC near or over +2. I know it’s s a small sample size of only 3 so there can be more variation. Peak OHC 15-16….1.97 97-98…2.56 82-83...2.07

Except that no pre 1980 El Niño had such high Nino 4 readings while 1+2 and 3 were this warm. Also subsurface pre 1980 on JMA was much warmer in CPAC and cooler in WPAC. Plus the stronger trades near the Dateline in early September were unheard of before now during the stronger El Niño years.

Give me a 30 day pattern like this and I don’t care what the rest of the winter does.

Anything over +1 in the Nino 4 region is very strong due to the narrower range there than areas further east. The earlier record warmest was in the 09-10 El Niño at +1.18 on ersst v5 for a monthly average. So that was the strongest modoki on record to that point in time. The 15-16 super El Niño set the all-time record coming in at +1.44. If we can sustain a monthly Nino 4 ersst v5 reading above +1, then it will be a top 3 strongest Nino 4. Remember, none of the past east based El Niño’s like 97-98 and 82-83 even approached +1 or greater in Nino 4. Technically speaking, Nino 4 remaining above +1 will constitute a full basin event since the forcing will lean west.

Maybe we can find a way to sneak in a PRE with two hurricanes to our south on Wednesday and a strong jet entrance region over the Northeast.

I believe the most anomalously warm ENSO region for late August is Nino 4. Nino 1+2 and 3 were warmer in 1997. But someone can check and see how close Nino 4 is to the record near +30 C. So it’s no surprise that the forcing will focus near the Dateline. Very rare modoki forcing with 1+2 and 3 influence getting muted.

Yeah, living near the shore is great. But the challenge on Long Island is summer traffic and lack of parking in places like Long Beach. Long Beach made a nice comeback after Sandy. Great restaurant scene and newer boardwalk.

Haha. I liked the shoreline best. But the cost of living was through the roof.

Yeah, very small sample size and the current subsurface doesn’t match any of the past cases in the JMA extended subsurface data set. At least in 1997 and 2016, we could see the upper ocean heat anomalies near 2c. This time we are only half that amount. So it’s hard to know how much warming is in pipeline.

I am originally from Long Island.

Thank you. The sea breezes here remind me of the Long Island south shore. My first time living on the U.S. mainland. Avelo looks like a nice small airline

I moved up to the CT shoreline just east of Tweed airport. So KHVN is my new nearest official station. It’s a cool little airport tucked into a nice community. So I may be as close to KHVN is Rjay us to ISP. I get some nice sea breezes here right off the sound. I will keep posting in NYC Metro since the crew feels like extended family to me.

While several ENSO models are going super, the subsurface is still much less impressive than at this point in 2015 and 1997. I know it’s only a small sample size of two. But the current upper ocean heat content near +1 is much lower than the +2 values those years at this time. So not sure how we get to super status without the upper ocean heat doubling from +1 to +2. Not really seeing that yet with the trades returning and the WPAC forcing to start September. Right now looks like 1+2 may have peaked and 3, 3.4, and 4 will continue a slow but steady climb as the SST departures work west. This year could be a candidate for an early peaking event should the follow up kelvin wave activity remain as weak as it has been. Also note the lack of a WPAC cold pool which helped development in 1997 and 2016 with the very impressive WWB activity near the Dateline which has been missing this year.

Closest developing El Niño 500 mb analogs to this summer were 2014 and 2009. Notice the strong blocking near Greenland and the +PNA ridge over British Columbia. Also the trough in the Great Lakes to Northeast. But this summer was much warmer than those two years due to the record global temperatures well above 2014 and 2009.

On track for only the 9th August at LGA with no 90° days. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2023 0 9 - 2008 0 0 - 1986 0 0 - 1982 0 0 - 1972 0 0 - 1967 0 0 - 1963 0 0 - 1950 0 0 - 1946 0 0

It’s on the World Climate Service free SST page. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

It seems like the historic marine heatwave near Japan is inhibiting the PDO from going positive. The strongly negative PDO is another factor that goes against some of the more aggressive ENSO models becoming super. All 4 super El Niños since 72-73 had a neutral or plosive PDO in August. So we have the WPAC, PDO, and subsurface vastly different from all 4 past super events. But that may be too small a sample size to be definitive. We’ll see how it goes.

Pattern looking very La Niña-like to start September with strong Maritime Continent forcing despite the IOD and SOI. So the WPAC warm pool is continuing to call the shots.