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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    Good to see those 3.00” totals near the South Shore since Sunday. But Central NJ gets another jackpot. Some spots recorded 10.00”+. NJ-OC-105 Barnegat Twp 2.6 ESE Lat: 39.7553762321453 Lon: -74.230699170895 * indicates Multi-Day Accumulation Report Station NJ-OC-105 Date Precip in. 10/01/2022 1.27 10/02/2022 0.73 10/03/2022 5.90 10/04/2022 2.30 Totals : 10.20 in.
  2. bluewave
    The big question is how long this cooler October +PNA pattern can last? We haven’t had a colder October since the modoki El Niño in 2009. So it will be interesting to see if the North Pacific warm pool can continue the more Nino-like pattern or the milder La Niña eventually returns. Newark October temperature departures 2021…..+6.9 2020….+1.5 2019…..+3.8 2018…..+0.8 2017…..+7.2 2016…+2.3 2015….+0.6 2014….+2.7 2013….+3.0 2012…..+2.2 2011……+1.5 2010……+1.9 2009…..-0.8
  3. bluewave
    So I guess we’ll also have to toss the record low max tie today at Newark. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-02 Lowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/3 52 in 1974 52 in 2022 53 in 1939
  4. bluewave
    The good thing about our climate is that we don’t have a well defined dry season like they do out West. So dry patterns usually resolve on their own. We haven’t had a water emergency in NYC since 2002. Meanwhile, the West has been experiencing more than a 1000 year megadrought over the last 10 to 20 years. Having nearly all months average around 4.00” gives us plenty of opportunities for precipitation here.
  5. bluewave
    The rain shield sliding north today makes the models showing the 2.00”+ additional of rainfall to the South Shore look believable for a change.
  6. bluewave
    This was the worst warm season drought from June to September at JFK since the 1960s. But it’s only 4 months long instead of years long like back then. That’s why there have been no serious water shortages just dry conditions for gardening interests. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Sep 30 Missing Count 1 1965-09-30 6.64 0 2 2022-09-30 7.05 0 3 1970-09-30 7.76 0 4 1948-09-30 8.44 46 5 1951-09-30 8.57 0 6 1957-09-30 8.72 0 7 1980-09-30 9.67 0 8 1995-09-30 9.74 0 9 2005-09-30 10.03 0 10 1998-09-30 10.12 0
  7. bluewave
    The HRRR which was correctly south with much of the rain last few days is wetter for Tuesday as the lower dewpoints and confluence relax a bit.
  8. bluewave
    This feels more like an October El Niño +PDO pattern with the cooler +PNA and heaviest rains in the Midatlantic. The near record warm +NPM must be overriding the La Niña. So this could make for an interesting winter forecast if the La Niña influence stays muted. October El Niño composite
  9. bluewave
    Tough for the main rains to advance north of I-78 with dewpoints in the 30s for NYC. Central Park CLOUDY 51 37 58 NE13G22
  10. bluewave
    The North Atlantic was near the warmest on record for the summer into the early fall. So the traditional AMO phases are getting overpowered by the steady warming of the North Atlantic. It’s just one solid block of warmth these days.
  11. bluewave
    The sea breeze front was to our north this summer so the 100s in NYC were limited interior Brooklyn and Queens. Same goes for the higher number of 90° days. We need westerly flow like in 2010 to get a record number of 90s and 100s for our area. Even without a record number of 90s and 100s, the average summer high finished behind 2010. So plenty of days in the upper 80s to boost the highs. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 85.4 0 2 2022 83.8 0 - 2016 83.8 0 - 2011 83.8 0 3 2015 83.3 0 4 2020 83.2 0 - 1971 83.2 0 5 1991 83.1 0 - 1983 83.1 0 - 1949 83.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 83.4 0 2 1999 83.3 0 3 2022 83.0 0 4 2016 82.9 0 5 1966 82.7 0 6 2020 82.4 0 - 1991 82.4 0 7 2011 82.3 0 8 2019 82.0 0 9 2012 81.6 0 10 2018 81.5 0 - 2005 81.5 0
  12. bluewave
    NJ came close to the all-time record number of 90° and 100° days this summer. The average summer high temperature in NJ was 2nd warmest on record at 86.5°. The minimums were further down on the list due to the drier conditions and lower dewpoints. Data for January 1, 2022 through October 2, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 54 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 53 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 50 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49 Newark Area ThreadEx 49 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 46 HARRISON COOP 44 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 43 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 43 CANOE BROOK COOP 42 ESTELL MANOR COOP 41 Data for January 1, 2022 through October 2, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 6 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 6 Newark Area ThreadEx 6 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 5 CANOE BROOK COOP 4 HARRISON COOP 4 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 2 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 2 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 1 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 1 201006 - 201008 86.5°F 128 202206 - 202208 86.0°F 127 201606 - 201608 85.7°F 126 199906 - 199908 85.6°F 125 202006 - 202008 85.4°F 12 202006 - 202008 65.1°F 128 201006 - 201008 64.9°F 127 200506 - 200508 64.8°F 126 202106 - 202108 64.5°F 125 201806 - 201808 64.3°F 124 201106 - 201108 64.1°F 123 201606 - 201608 64.1°F 123 201906 - 201908 64.1°F 123 202206 - 202208 64.1°F 123
  13. bluewave
    High pressure hanging tough today for areas north of l-78. This almost looks like a winter confluence situation.Tough for the moisture to advance further north into all that dry air.
  14. bluewave
    The sun is out here in SW Suffolk with just some drizzle.
  15. bluewave
    It looks like October will be starting out with a much cooler pattern than recent years. Last October was the warmest on record and 2019 featured the all-time warmest monthly high. So we have a good chance at avoiding another 60°+ October. La Ninas like this year are typically pretty warm here in October. So maybe this means that we see another winter with competing influences that can push back against the typical Niña pattern at times. Typical warm La Nina warm October since 2000 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 64.4 0 2 2017 63.8 0 3 2007 63.5 0 4 1971 63.1 0 5 1990 62.4 0 6 1984 62.2 0 7 1949 61.6 0 8 1963 61.2 0 9 1995 61.0 0 - 1947 61.0 0 10 2019 60.4 0 - 1954 60.4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 96 0 2 1941 93 0 3 1949 92 0 4 1959 91 0 5 1939 90 0 - 1938 90 0
  16. bluewave
    Rapid intensification has become the new normal in recent years with the steadily warming SSTs.
  17. bluewave
    Nice improvements from the 0z Euro and GEM getting 2.00” to Long Island now.
  18. bluewave
    Euro and GEM continuing with the sharp cutoff to the northern extent of Ian’s moisture. Blocking still looks pretty strong on both models. We’ll have to refine forecast after later runs to see exactly how far north the rains make it.
  19. bluewave
    Even though temperatures have cooled off over the last week, areas from EWR to LGA continue to average near 70° for the month. This has been a common occurrence since 2010. But at least we will step down from all the record warmth in recent months. So less warm is the new cool as the late month cooldown prevented another top 10 warmest month. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1961 74.5 0 2 2005 73.5 0 3 2015 73.4 0 4 2021 72.5 0 5 2016 71.8 0 - 1971 71.8 0 6 2010 71.6 0 7 1959 71.5 0 8 2018 71.4 0 9 2011 71.2 0 10 1973 71.0 0 - 1931 71.0 0 11 2022 70.9 3 - 2017 70.9 0 12 2019 70.8 0 - 1980 70.8 0 13 1968 70.7 0 14 1983 70.6 0 - 1970 70.6 0 15 2002 70.5 0 16 1998 70.3 0 17 1985 70.2 0 18 2007 70.1 0
  20. bluewave
    All the guidance has a sharp cutoff to Ian’s rainfall just to our south as blocking Canadian high pressure dominates.
  21. bluewave
    The record blocking will result in a cooler pattern into next weekend across the area. So Ian is expected to stall out near the Gulf Coast of Florida. This is a continuation of needing record blocking just to get cooler than average temperatures around here.
  22. bluewave
    The OP Euro is finally coming into line with the EPS, GEM, and GFS on the slower track of Ian. The impressive Fiona wave break is setting up a strong blocking pattern to the north. So we’ll have to see how much moisture can make into our region after the system weakens. New run Old run
  23. bluewave
    The first 45° of the season came in a bit earlier than the recent average since 2010 at Islip. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kisp 45 First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 05-03 (2015) 09-18 (2013) 111 Mean 05-15 10-04 141 Maximum 06-01 (2020) 10-18 (2021) 159 2022 05-09 (2022) 44 09-24(2022) 45 - 2021 05-28 (2021) 44 10-18 (2021) 45 142 2020 06-01 (2020) 44 09-21 (2020) 44 111 2019 05-15 (2019) 45 10-05 (2019) 42 142 2018 05-09 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 42 156 2017 05-21 (2017) 43 10-17 (2017) 40 148 2016 05-20 (2016) 45 10-11 (2016) 39 143 2015 05-03 (2015) 44 10-10 (2015) 44 159 2014 05-03 (2014) 44 09-23 (2014) 45 142 2013 05-27 (2013) 43 09-18 (2013) 44 113 2012 05-12 (2012) 43 09-25 (2012) 44 135 2011 05-06 (2011) 38 10-06 (2011) 40 152 2010 05-13 (2010) 38 10-09 (2010) 44 148
  24. bluewave
    Yeah, Sandy would have been stronger had it occurred a month earlier with a record warm pool like this.
  25. bluewave
    Fiona will probably be the strongest storm to hit Nova Scotia.
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