bluewave

That’s true. But even dry heat which gets so high really doesn’t appeal to me either. I have always enjoyed the cooler seasons here more but I track everything and find interest in the variety. The one truth about the cold is you can always add more layers but there is only so much you can take off in extreme heat. Though the walks to the bus stop in the 76-77 winter we’re pretty tough. But not as bad as 100° with a 75° dewpoint. That’s just me.

The US population migration patterns are moving in the wrong direction for the current and future climate projections. The Northeast and Great Lakes should be the go to destinations for the way climate is a changing. But people have been leaving this region and heading south and west. Those areas have been experiencing serious drought, wildfires, heat, and major hurricanes. I will take my chances in a region that can experience too much rain like the other day over fires and multiyear drought. Plus those ares are also prone to flooding cycles also.

Tough combination of CC+UHI expansion. CC has seen minimum temperatures increasing faster than maximums at both rural and urban locations. The population has nearly tripled at Phoenix since 1974. So we can add an expanding heat island to the mix for ridiculously high daily minimum temperatures. I don’t see the appeal or living in that climate during the warm season.

Impressive south based blocking pattern continues. These south based blocks have become more common in recent years. Allowed for record rainfall and flooding underneath it.

Shrub Oak in at 8.10”. https://www.cocorahs.org Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NY-WC-20 Station Name: Shrub Oak 0.6 WNW Observation Date 7/10/2023 6:00 AM Submitted 7/10/2023 6:26 AM Gauge Catch 8.10 in. Notes -- Snow Information 24-hr Snowfall NA 24-hr Snowfall SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) NA 24-hr Snowfall SLR (Snow to Liquid Ratio) NA Snowpack Depth NA Snowpack SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) NA Snowpack Density NA Duration Information Precipitation Began -- Precipitation Ended -- Heavy Precip Began -- Heavy Precip Lasted -- Duration Time Accuracy -- Additional Information Flooding -- Additional Data Recorded No

That’s due to the Central Pacific trade wind index remaining positive every spring month throughJune which hasn’t happened during an El Niño since 97-98. Even the weaker years had one negative month which means relaxing trades and stronger WWBs. The MEI takes in factors like winds, SSTs, and OLR. The stronger trades have allowed Nino 3.4 to lag behind super El Niño years like 97-98 and 15-16. So going over 2.0 in 3.4 doesn’t look likely unless we get a stronger CP WWB pattern developing. 850 MB TRADE WIND INDEX(175W-140W)5N 5S CENTRAL PACIFIC ANOMALY

While June Nino 3.4 was behind 1997 and 2015 at +0.81, it was still significant early development for this time of year. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html

Nearly all were near the beginning or the end of El Niños.

Islip right at 10th coolest June so far. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1982 64.5 0 2 1972 64.6 0 3 1979 64.8 0 - 1968 64.8 0 4 1985 65.4 0 5 2009 65.5 0 - 1965 65.5 0 6 2003 66.1 0 7 1992 66.3 0 - 1977 66.3 0 8 1964 66.5 0 9 1974 66.7 0 10 2023 66.8 3

Yeah, the forcing is much further west than we typically see from an El Niño in June.

Yeah, Nino 1+2 and 3 aren’t having the same forcing influence like they did at this point in 1997 due to the WPAC being so much warmer.

We are getting to the time of the year when Nino 1+2 departures have less influence due to the cooler SSTs. Notice how the WPAC warm pool continues to run the forcing show due to the peak SSTs around +30C. So Nino 4 is much warmer than 1+2.

The model run by Will Gregory at CPOM based on May conditions is going for an average September extent of 4.46 million sq km. This is solidly within the range since 2013. The model has been very accurate. So the 2012 record should be safe for another year https://www.arcus.org/files/sio/panarctic/2023_june_sio_cpom_ucl_gregory_et_al.pdf Executive summary" of your Outlook contribution (using 300 words or less) describe how and why your contribution was formulated. To the extent possible, use non-technical language. This statistical model computes a forecast of pan-Arctic September sea ice extent . Monthly averaged May sea ice concentration and sea-surface temperature fields between 1979 and 2023 were used to create a climate network (based on the approach of Gregory et al 2020). This was then utilised in a Bayesian Linear Regression in order to forecast September extent. The model predicts a pan-Arctic extent of 4.46 million square kilometres. Sea ice concentration data were taken from NSIDC (Cavalieri et al., 1996; Maslanik and Stroeve,1999) and sea-surface temperature data were taken from ERA5 (Hersbach et al., 2019) Average September extents since 2012 2022….4.87 2021……4.92 2020……3.92 2019……4.32 2018…...4.71 2017……4.87 2016……4.72 2015…..4.63 2014…..5.28 2013…..5.35 2012…..3.60

70.6 is much closer to 2009 than 1985. But I see what you are saying. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1903 65.8 0 2 1907 66.8 0 3 1881 67.3 0 4 1878 67.4 0 5 1958 67.8 0 6 1916 67.9 0 7 1926 68.0 0 8 1977 68.6 0 - 1927 68.6 0 9 1982 68.7 0 - 1972 68.7 0 10 1985 68.8 0 11 1897 68.9 0 12 1979 69.0 0 13 2023 69.2 7 - 1955 69.2 0 - 1946 69.2 0 14 1924 69.3 0 15 1886 69.5 0 16 1915 69.6 0 - 1910 69.6 0 17 1947 69.7 0 - 1918 69.7 0 18 1928 69.8 0 19 1961 69.9 0 20 1965 70.0 0 21 1974 70.3 0 - 1902 70.3 0 - 1896 70.3 0 - 1875 70.3 0 22 1963 70.4 0 23 1980 70.6 0 - 1960 70.6 0 24 1950 70.7 0 - 1912 70.7 0 25 1905 70.8 0 - 1904 70.8 0 26 2009 71.1 0 - 1997 71.1 0

It’s fairly typical for developing El Niños to feature a cooler June. The list below is the coolest Junes so far since 1981. The El Niño years are bolded. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 23 Missing Count 1 2003-06-23 64.9 0 2 2009-06-23 65.9 0 3 1998-06-23 67.0 0 4 1982-06-23 67.1 0 5 2023-06-23 68.6 0 - 1997-06-23 68.6 0 6 2002-06-23 69.0 0

6th coldest reading so far at Atlantic City and Charleston, WV. Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 22 Missing Count 1 1980-06-22 62.7 0 2 1997-06-22 64.8 0 3 2003-06-22 65.1 0 4 1946-06-22 65.4 0 5 1992-06-22 65.6 0 - 1958-06-22 65.6 0 6 2023-06-22 65.7 0 7 1951-06-22 65.8 0 8 1948-06-22 66.0 1 9 1977-06-22 66.1 0 10 1972-06-22 66.2 0 Time Series Summary for Charleston Area, WV (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 22 Missing Count 1 1955-06-22 64.8 0 2 1972-06-22 65.8 0 3 1927-06-22 66.1 0 4 2003-06-22 66.2 0 5 1910-06-22 66.3 4 6 2023-06-22 66.9 0 7 1980-06-22 67.0 0 8 1977-06-22 67.1 0 9 1907-06-22 67.7 0 10 1963-06-22 67.8 0

It’s actually the coolest June in Philly since 2009 and 3rd overall coolest since 2000. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 22 Missing Count 1 2003-06-22 68.0 0 2 2009-06-22 69.2 0 3 2023-06-22 69.3 0 4 2004-06-22 71.2 0 5 2000-06-22 71.4 0

Locally warmer version of the 2009 developing El Niño with the AMJ maximum temperature coming in April. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Season 2002 97 90 96 97 1990 94 83 92 94 2023 93 90 91 93 2009 93 87 89 93 1976 93 83 93 93

So far the OISST has been averaging +0.9 for the first half of June. Its possible that the last 10 days can warm enough for June to average +1.0. The BOM looks like its call from May for June to finish at 1.25 will be a little high. More WWBs coming for the EPAC will continue the warming in the east gradually spreading west. The westward lean to the forcing continues this month.

The CPC uses OISST for its weekly SST temperature updates. Not sure of any agencies that use CDAS. They use ERSST for monthly and seasonal SSTs. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

Pretty impressive.

It’s been the persistent trough and lack of SE Ridge causing the cooling.

This could have been a good pattern with winter wavelengths.

Probably the strongest +AMO signature that we have ever seen.

Long range forecasts verifying slightly cooler due to the cold pool to our east. This is the opposite model bias of recent years. So it will be interesting to see how long it lasts. New run Old run