bluewave

I believe we would continue to see the record warm SSTs along the NW Atlantic increase as the current slows more and warm water piles up. The cool area south of Greenland would continue to increase with less warm water transport. Stefan Rhamstorf has been doing much of the research. https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/

Similar cooler pattern this July in the Plains like the longer term warm season trend has shown. It would make an interesting study to see if the increased agriculture and irrigation is affecting the Rossby wave train in some way. A study has shown that the Dust Bowl heating from the poor land use practices actually altered the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. Time Series Summary for Rapid City Area, SD (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 25 Missing Count 1 1992-07-25 63.7 0 2 1993-07-25 64.2 0 3 1972-07-25 64.4 0 4 1950-07-25 66.2 0 5 1958-07-25 67.0 0 6 1944-07-25 68.2 0 7 2009-07-25 68.7 0 - 1951-07-25 68.7 0 8 2010-07-25 69.1 0 9 2023-07-25 69.3 0 10 1968-07-25 69.5 0

Looks like one of the U.S.high end QLCS Derecho type events in Switzerland. A gust to 135 mph is the real deal.

You can also use XMACIS2 http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2020 11.39 0 2 1988 11.17 0 3 1975 10.33 0 4 1997 10.00 0 5 1984 9.65 0 6 1987 9.60 0 7 1969 8.26 0 8 2004 8.19 0 9 1989 7.42 0 10 2023 7.26 6

Is this what you are looking for? https://www.njweather.org/data

I remember. They really started getting blighted during the 90s in Long Beach. Sounded like gunshots during heavy wet snowstorms as the branches snapped. Then March 2010, Irene, and Sandy. The old saying was never park your car under one of them if there were any kind of storms in forecast. They really were a hazard before Sandy wiped out most of them.

Those old Sycamores don’t do well in high winds.

Even mature UHI locations like LGA haven’t seen that great a jump in warm season average low temperatures above the 2nd place month. The difference at LGA between 1st and 2nd place is only a few tenths of a degree. Caribou so far is +3.8° above the next closest year. Both stations have had exactly 4 out of the top 5 warmest July minimums since 2010. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75.2 0 2 2010 74.9 0 3 2013 74.5 0 4 1999 74.1 0 5 2023 73.8 7 6 2019 73.6 0 - 2016 73.6 0 7 2022 73.3 0 - 2006 73.3 0 8 1994 72.7 0 9 2018 72.6 0 - 2012 72.6 0 10 2015 72.5 0 - 2008 72.5 0 - 1995 72.5 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 63.7 7 2 2020 59.9 0 3 1947 59.5 0 4 2018 59.4 0 5 2010 59.2 0 6 1970 58.8 0 7 1994 58.5 0 - 1967 58.5 0 8 1975 58.4 0 9 2006 58.2 0 10 1973 58.1 0

Numerous records set from Maine into Maritime Canada with the current extreme marine heatwave in that area. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 63.7 7 2 2020 59.9 0 3 1947 59.5 0 4 2018 59.4 0 5 2010 59.2 0

Gust to 46 mph at Newark.

Just to illustrate the fact that there were 5x more daily record high temperatures than low temperatures in 2022. This was similar to previous years at the longer period of record threadex stations. What climate change does is load the dice for a higher ratio of record highs to lows. We’ll still see record lows at times even later this century. But the ratio of record highs to lows will continue to increase.

Yeah, it’s the 4th warmest July for average low temperatures in Westchester. But only the 13th warmest for high temperatures. The warm up later this week may push the highs closer to the top 10. Caribou Maine is the most extreme for warm minimums this month well ahead of any other July. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2013 69.6 0 2 1999 69.3 1 3 2020 68.1 0 4 2023 68.0 7 5 1955 67.9 2 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1966 88.0 0 2 1999 87.8 0 3 2010 87.1 0 4 1952 86.9 0 5 1983 86.6 0 6 2022 86.4 0 7 2011 86.2 1 8 1955 85.9 0 - 1949 85.9 0 9 2019 85.8 0 10 2020 85.7 0 - 1993 85.7 0 11 2012 85.6 0 12 2016 85.5 0 13 2023 85.4 7 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 63.7 7 2 2020 59.9 0 3 1947 59.5 0 4 2018 59.4 0 5 2010 59.2 0

Very high even for such shallow waters. Unfortunately a coral bleaching event is now underway.

It had 1.77 for July and the current weekly update is 1.10. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for Model JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF JFM FMA Dynamical Models AUS-ACCESS 1.77 2.23 2.57 2.73

It appears that the expansion of U.S. agriculture is related to gains in technological advancement. I guess the challenge for the future would be if the Western Drought growth of the last 20 years eventually expands into the Plains like some climate models suggest. The hope is that technology will advance enough to create better heat and drought resistant crops in the future. https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2020/03/05/look-agricultural-productivity-growth-united-states-1948-2017

This is a major reason why the Dust Bowl record highs in this region haven’t been able to be exceeded with global warming causing record highs everywhere else. Our land practices during the Dust Bowl were responsible for greatly amplifying the drought and heat. So the expansion of corn production has created a localized cooling in these areas relative to the rest of the world. https://www.science.org/content/article/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather The United States’s Corn Belt is making its own weather By Kimberly HickokFeb. 16, 2018 , 12:05 PM The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself. This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand howagricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says. The Corn Belt stretches from the panhandle of Texas up to North Dakota and east to Ohio. The amount of corn harvested in this region annually has increased by 400% since 1950, from 2 billion to 10 billion bushels. Iowa leads the country for the most corn produced per state. To see whether this increase in crops has influenced the region’s unusual weather,researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge used computers to model five different 30-year climate simulations, based on data from 1982 to 2011. First, they compared simulations with high levels of intense agriculture to control simulations with noagricultural influence. Unlike the real-life climate changes, the control simulations showed no change in temperature or rainfall. But 62% of the simulations with intense agriculture resulted in temperature and rainfall changes that mirror the observed changes, the team reports this week in Geophysical Research Letters. Map of the central United States, showing changes in rainfall during the last third of the 20th century. Areas of increased rainfall are shown in green, with darker colors representing a greater increase. MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY The team then compared its results to historical global simulations from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), an international program for the coordination of global climate research sponsored by the International Council for Science, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO. WCRP’s models take into account greenhouse gas emissions and other natural and humanmade influences, but do not consider agricultural land use. When researchers ran the numbers for the Corn Belt, the global models fell short of reality: They predicted both temperature and humidity to increase slightly, and rainfall to increase by up to 4%—none of which matches the observed changes. Other climate simulations that use sea surface temperature variation didn’t match observed changes, either. Those simulations matchedhistorical data until 1970; after that, the simulations predicted temperatures to keep increasing, rather than decreasing as they did in reality. This is a strong indication that agriculture, and not changing sea surface temperature, caused the regional changes in climate during the last third of the 20th century, the researchers say. “The [influence] of agriculture intensification is really an independent problem from greenhouse gas emissions,” says Ross Alter, lead author of the study and now a meteorologist with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Hanover, New Hampshire. In fact, Alter says, heavy agriculture likely counteracted rising temperatures regionally that might have otherwise resulted from increasing greenhouse gas emissions. One other place that shows a similar drop in temperatures, he notes, is eastern China, where intensive agriculture is widespread. But how does agriculture cause increased rainfall and decreased temperatures? The team suspects it has to do with photosynthesis, which leads to more water vapor in the air. When a plant’s pores, called stomata, open to allow carbondioxide to enter, they simultaneously allow water to escape. This increases the amount of water going into the atmosphere and returning as rainfall. The cycle may continue as that rainwater eventually moves back into the atmosphere and causes more rainfall downwind from the original agricultural area. Rong Fu, a climate scientist at UC Los Angeles, agrees with the team’s assessment. She alsothinks that though human influence might be “greater than we realize,” this regional climate change is probably caused by many factors,including increased irrigation in the region. “This squares with a lot of other evidence,” says Peter Huybers, a climate scientist at Harvard University, who calls the new study convincing. But he warns that such benefits may not last if greenhouse gas emissions eventually overpower the mitigating effect of agriculture. Alter agrees, and says it’s unlikely that the large increases in U.S. crop production during the 20th century will continue. Other scientists have voiced concern that agricultural production could soon be reaching its limit in many parts of the world. “Food production is arguably what we’re more concerned about with climate change,” Mueller says. And understanding how agriculture and climate will continue to affect one another is crucial for developing projections for both climate and agricultural yields. “It’s not just greenhousegasses that we need to be thinking about.” https://news.wisc.edu/irrigated-farming-in-wisconsins-central-sands-cools-the-regions-climate/ New research finds that irrigated farms within Wisconsin’s vegetable-growing Central Sands region significantly cool the local climate compared to nearby rain-fed farms or forests. Irrigation dropped maximum temperatures by one to three degrees Fahrenheit on average while increasing minimum temperatures up to four degrees compared to unirrigated farms or forests. In all, irrigated farms experienced a three- to seven-degree smaller range in daily temperatures compared to other land uses. These effects persisted throughout the year. A map of the Central Sands region of Wisconsin where researchers studied the effects of irrigation on the local climate. A sensor was placed at each pink dot to mark a line across the region as it changed from pine plantations to farms to forests. Image courtesy Mallika Nocco/Christopher Kucharik The results show that the conversion of land to irrigated agriculture can have a significant effect on the regional climate, which in turn can affect plant growth, pest pressure and human health in ways that could be overlooked unless land uses are accounted for in forecasts and planning. Such a cooling effect mitigates — and obscures — a global warming trend induced by the accumulation of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere. Irrigated farming, like all agriculture, also generates greenhouses gases. The work was led by Mallika Nocco, who recently completed her doctorate in the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. Nocco worked with Christopher Kucharik of the Nelson Institute and the UW–Madison agronomy department and Robert Smail from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. The team published their findings July 2 in the journal Global Change Biology. “We’re finding that weather forecasts can be wrong if they don’t take these land uses into account,” says Nocco, now a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Minnesota. “That will affect both farmers and plants.” Irrigation, and agriculture generally, cools the air due to the evaporation of water through crop leaves, much like how evaporating sweat cools people. This evaporation also increases the water content of the air. The scientists wanted to determine if the naturally humid Wisconsin climate would respond as strongly to irrigation as drier regions, such as California, do. To find out, Nocco worked with private landowners to install 28 temperature and humidity sensors in a line that crossed through the Central Sands. The 37-mile transect extended from pine plantations in the west, over irrigated farms toward forests in the east. The researchers collected data across 32 months from the beginning of 2014 through the summer of 2016. Each of the 28 sensors was matched to nearby irrigation levels through a regional well withdrawal database managed by Smail of the Department of Natural Resources. Nocco’s team found that irrigation lowered the maximum daily temperature about three and half degrees compared to nearby rainfed farms. Adjacent forests were slightly warmer than either rainfed or irrigated farms. Somewhat surprisingly, the lower maximum temperatures on irrigated farms were accompanied by higher minimum temperatures. Saturated soils can hold more heat than dry soils. When that heat is released at night, it keeps nighttime minimum temperatures somewhat higher. Wet soils may also be darker, helping them absorb more sunlight during the day. The researchers found that if all land in the study area were converted to irrigated agriculture, the daily range in temperatures would shrink nearly five degrees Fahrenheit on average, and up to eight degrees at the high end. This smaller difference between daily maximum and minimum temperatures can significantly affect plant growth or insect pest lifecycles, both of which are sensitive to daily temperatures. “If you’re adjusting the range of temperatures, you’re changing who or what can live in an area,” says Nocco. The temperature differences between irrigated fields and rain-fed fields or forests were pronounced during the growing season, when fields were being irrigated, but extended throughout the year. Open fields of snow reflect more winter sunlight than forests do, keeping the air above cooler, but it’s not entirely clear what drives winter temperature differences between irrigated and non-irrigated farms. While the cooling effect of irrigation mitigates global climate change on the regional scale, climate models suggest that regional warming attributed to the global trend will eventually overcome the magnitude of mitigation offered by irrigated agriculture. Farmers, who are partially buffered for now from more extreme heat, would quickly face increasing stress in that scenario. “Farmers in irrigated regions may experience more abrupt temperature increases that will cause them to have to adapt more quickly than other groups who are already coping with a warming climate,” says Kucharik. “It’s that timeframe in which people have time to adapt that concerns me.” The current study is the first to definitively link irrigation in the Midwest U.S. to an altered regional climate. These results could improve weather and climate forecasts, help farmers plan better, and, the researchers hope, better prepare agricultural areas to deal with a warming climate when the irrigation effect is washed out. “Irrigation is a land use with effects on climate in the Midwest, and we need to account for this in our climate models,” says Nocco. This work was supported in part by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education program and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w The severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socio-economic and ecological disaster over North America’s Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world. https://news.ucar.edu/132872/1930s-dust-bowl-affected-extreme-heat-around-northern-hemisphere The 1930s Dust Bowl, fueled by overplowing across the Great Plains and associated with record heat and drought, appears to have affected heat extremes far beyond the United States. New research finds that the hot, exposed land in the central U.S. during the Dust Bowl drought influenced temperatures across much of North America and as far away as Europe and East Asia. That’s because the extreme heating of the Great Plains triggered motions of air around the Northern Hemisphere in ways that suppressed cloud formation in some regions and, in combination with the influence of tropical oceanic conditions, led to record heat thousands of miles away. “The hot and dry conditions over the Great Plains during the Dust Bowl spread extreme heat to other areas of the Northern Hemisphere,” said Gerald Meehl, a scientist with the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and lead author of the new study. “If you look at daily record high temperatures, some of these areas are just now breaking the records that were set in the 1930s.” To determine the climatic impact of the Dust Bowl, the research team drew on observed high and low daily temperatures, as well as advanced computer models of the global climate system. They focused on the role of a teleconnection pattern, known as wave-5, that can regulate the meandering of jet streams and link far-flung weather patterns around the Northern Hemisphere during summer. The study was published in Scientific Reports. It was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, which is NCAR’s sponsor, as well as by the U.S. Department of Energy. TEASING OUT THE DUST BOWL’S INFLUENCE The Dust Bowl is widely viewed as one of the nation’s worst environmental disasters. Farmers in the early part of the 20th century plowed up millions of acres of native grassland across much of the Great Plains to plant wheat and other crops. When a multiyear drought struck in the 1930s, the exposed land became exceptionally hot and topsoil blew away, causing devastating dust storms as well as a health and economic catastrophe. The new research points out that extreme weather conditions extended far beyond the immediate vicinity of the Dust Bowl. Much of North America, northern Europe, and eastern and northeastern Asia experienced such heat that some record high temperatures of the 1930s are only now being exceeded as temperatures rise with climate change. Previous research pointed to patterns of warm and cool surface temperatures in the tropical oceans as triggering the drought in the Great Plains. These conditions were associated with a pair of multidecadal phenomena known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The question addressed by Meehl and his co-authors was whether such oceanic conditions could also explain the hot and dry weather around so much of the Northern Hemisphere, or if the Dust Bowl itself played a role. To tease out the influence of the Dust Bowl, the scientists first used an NCAR-based model of global climate, known as the Community Earth System Model (CESM). They ran a series of simulations on the Cheyenne supercomputer at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center to see whether the IPO and AMO could fully account for the distribution of extreme daily high temperatures across three continents. But even though they set the model to capture the likely oceanic conditions of the time, they could not reproduce the high daily temperatures of the 1930s. They then turned to a version of the CESM atmospheric model that is a component of the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model, and set the model to isolate the influence of the extreme heat over the Great Plains during the 1930s. This time the results closely matched actual climate records, indicating that the Dust Bowl generated an atmospheric reaction that, in combination with conditions in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, triggered extreme heat across vast areas of the Northern Hemisphere. “When you put the influence of the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought in the model, you get record-breaking heat in the areas where we saw them in the Northern Hemisphere during the 1930s,” Meehl said. INFLUENCE OF WAVE-5 Additional analysis of the simulations revealed the reason the Dust Bowl had such a pronounced effect on other regions: it generated a series of far-reaching vertical motions in the atmosphere. Such movements are known as a wavenumber-5 or wave-5 teleconnection — so named because it consists of five pairs of alternating high- and low-pressure features that encircle the globe along jet streams. In this case, the intense surface heating of the Great Plains created an upward motion of warm air, which then moved downward in surrounding areas, suppressing the formation of clouds over much of the northern U.S. and Canada. It also produced sinking air that suppressed clouds in other regions around the Northern Hemisphere, allowing more sunlight to reach the surface and resulting in soaring temperatures. At the same time, the pattern enabled warm, southerly winds to reach as far north as Scandinavia and eastern Asia. These winds contributed to the extreme heat over much of northern Europe and parts of eastern Asia. Meehl said the study helps illuminate how conditions on one part of the planet can affect the atmosphere thousands of miles away. Scientists have long known about the climatic influence of the vast tropical oceans, which pump out enormous amounts of relatively moist, warm air affecting weather patterns worldwide, as with El Niño. But it has proven more difficult to tease out linkages that arise from conditions over smaller areas of land in the midlatitudes, especially during summer. “This is a mechanism that arose in a unique way from human influence — not by burning fossil fuels but from plowing up the middle third of the U.S.,” Meehl said. “It’s possible that intense regional droughts in the future could also influence heat extremes in the Northern Hemisphere.” ABOUT THE ARTICLE Title: How the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought spread heat extremes around the Northern Hemisphere Authors: Gerald A. Meehl, Haiyan Teng, Nan Rosenbloom, Aixue Hu, Claudia Tebaldi, and Guy Walton Journal: Scientific Reports

Warmest departures this month to our north in Maine and along the Southern Tier.

Forecast based on the slower start to the melt season back in May compared to some of the stronger melt years appears to be on track.

Don set a new record for furthest north development near the record warm pool in July.

I am thinking those record SSTs along the Canadian Maritimes helped with all time the record warm minimum in that area recently.

Who knows. I am hoping there can be enough of a Nino backloaded response for at least higher snowfall totals than last winter. But we have seen some odd Nino interactions recently with the more Niña-like WPAC warm pool.

The CFS was the only seasonal model to get the westward lean on the forcing correct this month. The Euro had stronger EPAC forcing which never verified. The CFS holds the forcing west into the early winter. http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?language=en

Yeah, 70s on Christmas Eve and a wild 50° average for the month. Data for December 24, 2015 through December 24, 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 74 NJ CRANFORD COOP 72 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 72 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 72 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 71 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 71 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 71 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 70 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 69 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 69 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 69 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 69 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN Data for December 1, 2015 through December 31, 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 50.8 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50.8 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 50.8 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 50.3 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49.8 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 49.7 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 49.5