Yep, like I mentioned earlier, it will still be a good storm and most will get a good hit but these sub 970mb lows are a pipe dream, just like they were for the current system.
Definitely don't like the Euro overamplified look, but I will say it was overamplified with the current system at this junction too. The GFS is probably a more reasonable solution just because the rarity of getting a low as strong as the Euro that far south and the GFS did pretty well with the current system where as a lot of other models had the low further north.
I think that back in the day it was much better and people remember the wins, but it never really got much better since then while the GFS has actually gotten much better over time.
Front end thump may not last long here but it should come down hard when it hits tomorrow morning and impact the morning drive in. Solid 3-4 should come with that initial hit and then some backside snow on Tuesday night.
Honestly we don't know the track yet, a few models have this coming straight north too. I would probably discount those models as its just very rare to get a track like that. Also you can get a situation like the Canadian where you get an attempt at a transfer which could pull the warm air away from the region as well. A lot of moving parts to this one including the small system in between that could lower heights as well ahead of this system.
Euro is just some big time garbage at this point. If this was a new model that came out right now it would be given the ICON treatment and not get used.
It is a possibility as well but I think this is the basement, it completely flattens the pattern because of amplifying a trailing wave between this storm and the wednesday storm.