Stebo

Exactly

zzzzz

Ahh yes the unknown poster who is so casual with everyone, I'd watch out before a house falls on you too

Nothing but clouds here, everything eroded as it moved east.

Its great to not have an interrupting asshole in a bunch of threads.

The only issue I have with this projection is that it doesn't make sense on face value. There is blocking to the north with a strong -NAO and there should be some confluence from the Tuesday/Wednesday storm and this one riding right up on its heels. I would expect this to come south and east some over time and the GEFS members are actually much more subdued, even a few that have completely nothing. I just don't buy a storm running right into a block like that and almost moving due north as well. Also too the system this weekend and the one early next week have come south some or in the case of the early next week storm isn't nearly as wrapped up and takes a more NEward trek compared to some of the early model projections. I do still think this will be a significant threat but I would expect a bit flatter of a track. For some people like Missouri and central Illinois the output probably will remain significant either way.

I will add my power of Feb 7th birthday, lets get everyone a birthday gift of snow

Not sure what you looked at.... but this completely disagrees.

Yeah that is contributing a bit too but with the negative tilt of the storm you'd expect a nice CCB and a nice baroclinic leaf structure to this. Models seem to just struggle with both at this point.

I would say these models now that they have gotten to such fine grid scale have done poorly on cold sector precip, I feel like this may be a situation like that as well.

OT for a second, this happened to us when I was 15, me and my grandpa were driving behind my uncle and dad going up north for deer hunting and the wheel flew off and up into the trailer itself leaving the rest of the components to leave a scar on 75 for about 100 ft. They ended up welding the wheel onto the harness as the trailer was going up north for the last time and they limped it up north. A 4 hour drive turned into 10 with the repair.

BAM weather sucks and always has

The main key will be where the high to the east sets up and how strong, and if there is a piece of energy to the north that could help swing the low north and put in some lead edge WAA that could present boundary layer issues. If there isn't a piece of energy to the north and you end up with more of a banana low this could lift northeast and then slide east from there. A lot of moving pieces still.

I'm fine with this thread though I would have waited a couple more days. That being said there will be a storm for the region in the period, the devil is in the details and will be for a while as we still have the storm to go south of most of us this weekend.

No, and stop going to bat for the worst of the worst, Christ.

Yes for now, me and a few others are watching to make sure it stays that way.

I think the crazier part about this other than 3 of the 6 are in the last 11 years, is that 2023 did it while not really even getting hot in the summer. That is more concerning than anything if you ask me.

Something needs to be done about this, IP ban him or something.

I think we wait until tomorrow for the first system for this weekend, and then probably mid to late week for the big system 5 days or less is a good window for a thread start.

Cromartie just stay gone already, Christ.

Honestly yeah, like its one thing to like warm weather, but to constantly troll about it while never adding analysis and constantly interjecting into good conversation with garbage it was time. It was time when he came back after being banned to begin with but previous moderation ignored the problem here.

Everyone knows Cromartie sucked

He is gone, it was him.

Pretty sure he ate it and weirdly enough mittenwx showed up the same day with the same vibe.

I wish we had 4-6" all year at this point.