Stebo

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

At the same time, it seems realistic to think that dynamic cooling will occur in the late afternoon/early evening with those rates. 

Yeah but eventually warm air advection will win out.

2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Yeah early week did not turn out well at all. Would nighttime have a good effect on the cooling? Find it hard to believe that we will be pushing 40-42 at midnight 1am.

Advection will overpower nocturnal cooling. We will warm up, it just depends on which model as to how brief it will be.

Cromartie, since I know you are reading this, stop making accounts. You have made 7 accounts already that have been banned in the last week. Take a hint, you are banned, go find another place to annoy.

I honestly don't know what is going to happen here, but every model at this point but the Euro brings snow to SE MI as dynamic cooling takes effect as the low strengthens and has flow from the east or northeast. I am just a bit gun shy from the complete failure of Wednesday but the difference this time is the precip rates should be much more considerable, compared to the precip rates on Wednesday which were weak.

That being said I think SEMI gained a bit tonight on the models but its is incredibly tenuous and could easily go back the other direction. I would love to be in SW MI for this, they look to get absolutely bonecrushed.

1 minute ago, AWMT30 said:

Riding the RGEM here in SE MI thats for sure. 

Its misleading a bit, it shows snow with a 3/2c surface. Unless it is absolutely coming down and cold aloft, that is rain. I will say it is decent up until 00z but its hard to buy

6 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

For whatever reason gfs seems to be only model keeping thermals under check here but everything else is a blast furnace. I truly hate El Nino winters. Lol

LLJ going to win out, I would lean warmer and we have seen warmer yesterday. The only saving grace to the north and east could be a quicker occlusion but beyond that the warmth along and east of the low track should win out.

40 minutes ago, roardog said:

Pray for the palms.

The only positive thing from this is that they could be killed, and the crowd would rejoice

Seriously though going from what we are now to this without snow would be pretty lousy

1 hour ago, glacier said:

any chance to get several hours of pingers with this?

I wonder who you could be...

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

The RRFS is a whole ENS package.

That is just one experimental hi-res, which yes, also has not performed well.


.

Is there anywhere to see its test data or experimental output? The way it sounds is that it should be treated like the new SREF if its an ensemble.

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

y’all have to stop with the NAM.

it’s trash and it’s life clock is nearing 0, once the RRFS is implemented successfully.


.

We will see what the 12z does but, this isn't a ringing endorsement for the RRFS over the NAM or the RRFS for this storm.

26 minutes ago, Powerball said:

A part of me wants Detroit to see a winter of relative futility, just to see how @michsnowfreak would react.

I know if all else fails, February seems to always come through to save the day. That said, January so far isn't looking as hot as the broader pattern originally suggested for snow prospects in/around the Motor City (it's looking cold but dry)...

Not in a Nino, which is why if we don't get much Friday that would almost seal it for a below normal snow for the season. You can't just punt Dec and January and hope that Feb/Mar pay off.

2 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

I hate this world.

Hi, I see myself from yesterday in this image

4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Stop me if you've seen this before, but the NAM is a north outlier. 

Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

Not as much as the HRRR, though.

There is actually a reason why, and if it does come to fruition it would bust most areas. It amplifies a lead head of the vort in the north forcing a low to the north.

5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Plan is for me to do the forecast for the storm today. Definitely a risk with ptypes into the metro, though recall that GHD II started out pretty warm too. So hopefully we find a happy medium. The Chicago shore could be a bigger issue again.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I wonder if you will use the phrase "white rain" for this area

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

You had me until you posted this, SREF is garbage and you know it.

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

This should be significantly better than the last system as currently modeled for the immediate metro. 0c 850mb barely gets into southern cook county and has an E/W orientation at the storms peak while the last one had 0c 850 into DuPage and Lake counties. 925mb was also well above freezing in the last storm. I’m not ruling out a jog north which could put that in jeopardy, but as progged it is a different ballgame. Ratios will be very poor, probably 8:1 type.

The lake isn't your friend with this storm. It's going to be a white rain downtown more than likely.

12 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

big pattern change looking like it could produce a couple rainers followed by CAD

not an ideal follow up to december imo 

It would almost guarantee a below normal snow season here because cold and dry doesn't yield much snow even with some lake effect.

2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Hopefully can get a few inches out of this. Would be unpleasant to have an arctic air outbreak with barley any snow on the ground

Yes I think a few inches is maybe possible but I can't go above 4" and honestly that might get washed away by rain too, just like yesterday.

The atmosphere is pretty similar to the current storm with this one. Idk why you guys think a bust potential isn't there with essentially the same storm again especially in the city of Chicago. Joe is seeing it so is Alek.

Just now, mimillman said:

Honestly when all is said and done with this, best place to be will probs be south central Michigan.

Nah this storm is going to go west and make sure it clubbers Chicago while it rains again here.

1 hour ago, mimillman said:

Stebo is gonna love the 18z ICON

Oh yeah totally love it. At this point I'm just going to stop talking about this storm because the minute I say anything it blows up in my face. Congrats Chicago

8 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Eh? The Euro/EPS is stronger because the primary shortwave is deeper and more organized than on the GFS, not really due to phasing.

The Euro being overamplified as usual.

Just now, Malacka11 said:

I know it doesn't mean jack diddly but wasn't the current storm also Euro NW and GFS SE by a bit and then the GFS trended into agreement? Or am I IIRCing wrong

Euro/NAM had it tracking north of you guys or right over. The low is in Central IL where the GFS had it.

Still overamplified, its not hard to understand with minimal phasing that we aren't getting a sub 970mb low. Remember what today was supposed to be, in the low 970s and right now its about 10mb weaker than that.