Stebo

2 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Do you foresee a very warm spring like a 2012 lite? The lakes are virtually ice less, no snowcover in the upper MW for cold shots to penetrate and a collapsing Nino. 

It would be shocking if we jumped to something like that. It doesn't look to remain locked in with a pattern like that but it does show early spring potential.

6 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

I am almost as far north at 42.18 latitude as Detroit yet you guys seem to outperform us in snowfall averages. Is that just lake influence or does your area receive more synoptic snows?

We get more lake effect through the year, while you guys can get more bigger lake effect hits its generally smaller through the year and some years can be next to nothing. We get quantity, you get quality.

Boy toward the end of the 12z GFS run would be one for the ages with respect to warmth and potential severe weather. That is also in the period where the GEFS is hinting at a significant trough out west ridge in the east.

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

One of these days I'll get Josh to admit chicago owns us in big dogs. He doesn't seem to weakening his turd polishing shield anytime soon but I will keep chipping away. It's all in good fun and glad we could entertain you in the slightest. I'm sure it's annoying to some but there ain't nothing else going on of any weather significance. People think I dont enjoy the smaller events and that's false. Just getting slightly annoyed we can't get over the hump here. I don't think expecting a big dog every 40 years is unrealistic. I don't expect one every winter and totally understand it's not our regular climo. But seeing almost everyone around us get one in my lifetime doesn't help.

The only reason they do is because of Lake Michigan, by the numbers they also get less snow yearly and we get more of the 6-10" snows.

7 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yeah I can never live in the u.p. away from my friends and g/f. Also ,the whole point is getting the big dog in your backyard and moving to have to see it ruins most of the satisfaction. Also this whining  and calling out josh is filling in the boring stretch of weather we currently are in.

Yeah I'll step in here, we don't need to be calling people out and arguing because the period is boring. That is just not a good way to board.

Quite shocking how hard it is snowing even behind that band. I have been at 1/4SM here at Metro for over a half hour now.

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Sustained? Of course not. But simply getting a late season snow, especially when some of those systems create their own air, don't ever underestimate that in this neck of the woods lol.

I get you are trying to have a rosy disposition here, but that look going into March would be a back breaker for potential late season snowfall. No nothing is impossible but that would be a very bad look and kill a lot of cold in our cold source region.

15 hours ago, rainsucks said:

the GFS completely obliterates the PV as well.

If this happens forget about any late season wintry weather. You will have no source region for cold at that point.

3 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Personally it really doesn’t matter a whole lot right now how big of a train wreck this winter turns out to be. 
 

My wife and I welcomed our 2nd child into the world last week. Cloud 9 only begins to describe how I feel. You can’t change the weather but you can impact and shape the little creatures you create in life.

Congrats!

34 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

I would have to imagine if this doesn't change dramatically in the next week we will be in for an early spring in michigan. Most of our early spring is moderated by ice covered lakes.

11 hours ago, Mogget said:

I would consider this a tornado, looks like a ground swirl down there and you are at least half way down as well. Amazing shot though!

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Obviously there has been some severe, but if dew points had gotten as high as the outlier guidance had show, things would have been off to the races today.

This would have been great if it was a month later.

Yeah yeah cromartie.

On 2/6/2024 at 4:59 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Thats a more balanced approach. When I think of GHDI, I think of how 3 days later we all got 4-6 inches of "partly sunny". Talk about a snow blindsiding forecasters. Then, on Feb 20, what was supposed to be 1-3" of snow turning to freezing rain once again shocked us by being all snow, complete with TSSN, and dropping 10". We MORE than made up for it, and Feb 2011 is Detroits 2nd snowiest Feb (31.7"), behind only 1908. It was also the 4th snowiest month on record (at the time 3rd), behind only Jan 2014, Feb 1908, & Dec 1974.

 

Ive said all the good about GHDII itself, but another thing it did was lay down a deep snowpack for the record cold the next 5 weeks would bring. There was a few inches on the ground pre-storm, but unlike the nonstop storms of 2013-14, in 2014-15 it was a big one-hit wonder (otherwise all nickels and dimes).

 

We have come back to earth since 2016. What I wouldnt give to relive the 2007-15 glory days and all the silly weenie complaints we had at the time during what was the best snow stretch on record. Some complaints of the time- some complained about a storm in 2011 for not dropping enough snow in a month that saw 32". Some complained in 2008 because Detroit got 72" while Madison got 99". My God were we spoiled. In the 7 winters from 2007-08 thru 2013-14, Detroit averaged 59.8". And that INCLUDES the clunker 2011-12. In the 9 winters since, the average has dropped down to, well, near average, at 42.9".

 

One more 2015 post storm pic to show why it was my favorite 

I worked that 4-6" of partly sunny. I remember watching overnight as the models kept inching north the snow band, and DTX was slow to react until their morning update at 9:30 when they realized that it would for sure snow.

29 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea he's not trolling. He's just on the same page as me. Still waiting for the detroit big dog everyone will remember.

I remember us getting 15" of snow. How could someone not...

10 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I would also say your description of "very heavy snow" is an exaggeration.

Those ground observations you referenced are based more so around visibilities than actual snowfall intensity. With the powdery nature of the snow and the sustained winds around 15-25 MPH, it was pretty easy to accomplish persistent 1/2 (moderate snow) or 1/4 mile (heavy snow) visibilities throughout much of the event. 

That said, I will grant that even DTX admits rates were up to 1" per hour in some areas, with the high ratios helping the snow to accumulate efficiently.

Again, as I stated, it was a nice storm for what it was (a widespread 12"+ snowstorm, for many the biggest of their lifetime). And as I also stated, there was definitely some blowing/drifiting. But let's not over-romanticize how impressive it was either.

Only you could irrationally shit on a storm that ranks top 5 all time for Detroit.

5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Ah, I got it, I misunderstood from the response. The NAO block does look like it could have more staying power this time, so hopefully that helps even if the Pacific pattern gets less favorable.

Would be interesting to look back at the observed MJO during February 2010. Looking back at that winter (I was still in NY), always surprises me that a moderate/borderline strong Niño was a colder than normal and snowy one. The record strong NAO block that winter appears to have been a major driver.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah that block that winter was incredible. Toronto got the short end of the stick so many times 

Just now, RCNYILWX said:

It's not gonna stay warm and completely snowless like it is now. The MJO isn't a pattern driver, it augments the pattern. It's not a guarantee of a snowy, active pattern, but at least one that looks to have temperatures more conducive for snow chances vs. literally nothing now.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Oh I agree, right now we are completely limited, there is potential, whether it is realized is still unknown. I would however like to move out of phase 7 to improve our chances.

If we stall out in phase 7 of the MJO, it will remain warm and snowless. Sure there is always a chance of something sneaking in but right now its not looking too optimistic.

On 2/4/2024 at 12:34 PM, Stevo6899 said:

Gfs/euro with something to keep an eye on for next monday/tuesday. Before that though, rare stretch of 5 straight days of sun here in the 40's and maybe even 50's.

Not anymore lol

3 hours ago, Lightning said:

Opps HAHAHA .  You are totally right.  Totally my bad.  

 

Sorry Cromatie!! I will gladly admit my mistake!!

I'd just stop acknowledging his existence here, just sayin.

24 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Crazy how detroit broke the precip record for january after today. Who would've thought half of it was probably liquid.

1932 January had .9" so it was almost all rain. Imagine having that happen 

I don't know where they got 1.9" for here but there was definitely more than that.

Go away Cromartie

Very surprising event here, when I woke up and saw that it looked like a line of thunderstorms moving in, I knew we were in for an overachiever.