Stebo

2 minutes ago, outflow said:

Hoping for a right turning msc sometime Saturday before the lid is put on things for a few days. 

GFS is trying, the thing is the models are going to struggle with that until the day of basically. Models love to push it along the jet, but in reality it usually dives into the instability.

Point and click forecast starting Saturday here

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

personally, it would be hard for me to call anything about that convective feedback.

a solidly well defined and strong MCV. the question to me is, will it be boom or bust. we've seen those go both directions over the years.

There is some feedback, but its not necessarily incorrect, as you mention with an MCV it can modulate the wind fields much stronger.

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

which day?

Wednesday

9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

would take the 12z euro

I'd have to defer to Ricky on this but every model is suffering from convective feedback, I really don't know how to forecast this one. Verbatim most models are significant but there is a feedback that is amplifying the winds, how much of that is true I don't know.

22 minutes ago, roardog said:

Next weekend looks like it could be interesting as the heat starts to move northeast. It could be one of those situations where most of the sub is hot and capped but our area could be far enough northeast for something. 

Saturday has my interest.

Wednesday is interesting, a low ejects out of the plains and strengthens as it moves towards the Straits of Mackinaw overnight into Thursday, with ample instability and a warm front lifting through the state I would expect some severe weather of all modes with a squall line trailing along the cold front. The wind fields are pretty robust as well.

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

this is michigan's moment 

Timing on Euro is actually similar, the only thing I don't like is that it could extend into the night time. Don't need night time tornadoes.

I am fine with the GFS speed, IL doesn't need to get everything lol.

10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Good luck!  Post some pics when u can.

Will do, if not here I will on twitter, but I will try and remember here as well.

My yearly chasecation starts Friday, pretty excited to be out on the open roads.

25 minutes ago, roardog said:

It really is the worst time of year. The period from about mid March to the end of April where most plant life is still dormant and you get a few tastes of warmth. Plus the days are long and the sun is warm so the cold is an annoyance. 

I'd rather we have some cold into end of March instead of mid April or something like that.

51 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

70 degrees to snow. I wish we could just flip from cold to warm and not have to go through this 2 month period march/April of mediocrity where were most likely not to get a snowstorm or severe weather or warm enough temps that last more than 2 days.

Aren't you in Florida? Why are you complaining

I am very concerned with STL's metro this evening. Moisture arrives just in time to make this a very significant potential.

Yeah outside of a surprise storm at some point, I don't think we will see much more wintry weather this spring.

52 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

looks like classic spring stuff, active with warm shots but cold never too far away

seen worse long ranges  

 

Yep, we will ride the roller coaster for a bit.

15 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Overall, between now and when we push into mid-month, it looks fairly up and down... or what you might consider a typical March.

Even though things may end up warmer than average as a whole, with what will be an active weather pattern and quality cold still being replenished in Canada, there most definitely will be some snow chances around...mainly north of I-70 and especially I-80.

I agree with this assessment, I don't see a Morch coming either but we may have periodic warm spells that could push parts of the region into the 70s.

7 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Horrible day and the worst is still yet to come. For those of us in the thick of it, we need the support of everyone who appreciates what we do. Contact your Congressional representatives. The staffing shortages caused by the fork and now the probationary employee firings have us on defcon 2 level in terms of how bad it is.

The goals of the people staffing this admin will get us to defcon one and beyond. I've been in the NWS since 2009 and I fear for my job at this point. They're demanding RIFs (reductions in force plans) by March 13th. This stuff technically is illegal and could be stopped by Congress if GOP Senators and Reps muster up the will to stand up to this for once.

Not very optimistic about it, but maybe understanding that offices in their states or districts would have to close and services degraded, and the flood of complaints from constituents can make a difference.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk
 

At this point as far as I heard 289 of 2500ish NWS employees were let go, you already reduced things by 12.5% another RIF and you will have NWS offices that won't be able to stay open. This is not including the other cuts to NOAA outside of the NWS. It is maddening, frustrating, and sad all at once. Like you I started here at KDTW in 2009 with contract weather observations and I am worried that I am going to get a call or an email that we have to shut down, I have 5 other employees I manage, what in the hell am I going to tell them if that happens. "Sorry your dream job got eliminated because of a whim of a couple of assholes"

I know I am not from this subforum obviously, but I did want to put in my two cents. What happened today is going to set back this country as a whole so badly. Weather observations/models/data that will rapidly disappear, is a necessary facet to so much. People have taken for granted what happens behind the scenes for far too long. We are going to see what happens very quickly as we might have a significant tornado outbreak next week. Any degradation of data between now and then will make things significantly harder.

I really feel for those who got fired today for no reason other than the whim of a couple of morons.

I am sure I speak for every red tag on this subforum, we are all so upset about what has happened today. This is going to have a very long lasting impact on this country almost immediately. I feel for anyone who got needlessly fired today.

45 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The Stormtrack Discord which is ran by conservative Mets shut down discussion on the nws mets getting fired 

Something something wokeness

Garbage discord run by garbage people trying to both sides this.

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

There's 2 potential systems between March 5-10 before it warms up.

I'd bet rain for both.

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

everyone brings up 2011 every single year.

There is merit this year considering the things I mentioned above.

See the thing that is interesting is that we are seeing cooling in the middle part of the Pacific in the ENSO regions while having warming near South America

This leads to a very positive Trans-Nino Index, which is very conducive to severe in the US, combine that with the -PDO (cooling along Alaska/California along with warmth to the west of it, and an above average Gulf of Mexico. You present a very ripe pattern for western US troughing and strong return flow into the middle part of the country, with above normal moisture. Many of your first year Ninas that decay or weaken in this time frame tend to be blockbuster years. There are exceptions of 2006 but this winter/spring has not played out like that year.

20 minutes ago, Spartman said:

BAM Weather bringing up 2011

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/1893988404519481423

This is one year I do see being a potential analog though.