Stebo

10 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I figured we should start this thread since we're well into met spring and quickly approaching astronomical spring. I combined the seasons due to the decreased traffic here in the summer. I have selfish reasons because this is about the only thread in which I post.

I was checking this map out and am dreading the northwest trend.

I would love a NW trend, then I don't have to travel to Ohio on purpose.

3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

He'll probably piss and moan about how gloomy it is on 4/8 when the sun is in eclipse totality in Dayton.

I didn't hear a peep from him in February when it was anomalously sunny in Dayton. They average ~5 sunny days in February. This year:

 

Yeah and several above average days too.

2 hours ago, Spartman said:

Suicide weather today. It's looking wet Friday into Saturday. Either way, we're in for quite a prolonged overcast stretch into the weekend. Dreading this month will be dealing with a hangover from the very cloudy January many of us had earlier this year.

You are the wettest blanket alive.

4 minutes ago, DocATL said:

The purpose of me posting a picture of an operational GFS run at hour 300+ wasn’t to troll. I fully understand it is completely unreliable. I meant to post it here concerning the extreme rarity with which we have seen west coast ridging and a southeast trough this winter.

Truth is we’ve seen a western trough dominating several winters despite the ENSO state. Some have theorized this relates to the PDO. Thats all I was trying to say.


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Next time use the ensemble mean, it actually has some value over the op GFS which has none.

Just now, DocATL said:

It was posted in the wrong thread as I stated earlier. I’m sorry. My goodness. I’ll delete it and we can all move on.


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My point still matters, we don't need op model 348hr images posted ever.

1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Also not sure why a 348 hour temperature anomaly map belongs in the severe weather thread, unless he's trying to troll?

Also possible

14 hours ago, DocATL said:

Well…sorry to disappoint you. I think you’ll be ok. Also, this is a discussion forum and not a fiefdom. I’d welcome and learn more from your critique or correction than from a visceral response.


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You shouldn't be posting a 348 hour map from an operational model. There is nothing to discuss there because it could easily change. If you want to post an ensemble mean that's fine but even then it is a day 12 map.

9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Difficult to unseat those historic downtown city office readings with a sub-standard north-facing window or rooftop exposure for the instrument shelter, and the enhanced UHI and proximity to the river. But fourth place is still quite impressive. Warmest since 1931-1932 officially.

The instrumentation at DTW is none of this, I don't know what your motive here is but you might want to stop it. The instruments on the field have been in the same spot for almost 40 years and my office where we would take back up readings if needed isn't some north facing sub-standard office. We are in a ramp control tower with 360 degree view of the entire airfield.

Thanks for starting the thread 

8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Skilling road off into the sunset tonight…

Legend

Here is his last sign off

I have watched him from back when I was a kid and we had cable. He was just so informative whenever it came down to blizzards or severe weather but presented the information so anyone could understand.

When does the Spring medium/long range thread open?

33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

And just like that, we are not only out of the running for least snowy February on record, but we are out of the running for top 5 least snowy as well.

Rip 

It is 53 here, with a north wind behind a cold front, in February. Totally normal.

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

All The Climate Changer is doing is shining a light on what a catastrophe this winter has been, and speaking up when everyone else is silent.  He's taking the data angle, and I'm taking the emotional angle (I've been doing the latter for years, but 2023-24 is the last straw).  Either way, it's horrible...and deserves to be hyped and communicated as much as possible.

He's right that the media is basically silent on what is going on this winter.  Shockingly, it's even worse than that, because Joe Public is actually happy to have warm and snowless winters.  If people are thinking this, then journalists aren't doing their job because the facts aren't getting communicated accordingly.

Let's just do what the US does on every environmental issue - just remain silent and complicit.  There's a political/justice-related saying from Plato:  "silence is consent".  And just like bullies do in school, people who have the courage to document and speak out against atrocities are often punished and told to keep quiet. I'm not comparing this winter to various forms of social injustice - just trying to make an analogy for purposes of understanding.

This winter has set a new bar for how bad things can be.  My go-to place in northern WI (Minocqua) has only had 15" of snow this winter, and 124 (!!) SDDs.  They average 100" of snowfall and approximately 1,600 SDDs.  And their DJF temp will probably shatter their old record by 3-5F, with records going back to the early 1900s.  This is an abomination, and doesn't deserve to be minimized.  From both an emotional and data-related standpoint, how can people be ok with this?  Why isn't everyone furious and worried? The shocking thing about Winter 2023-24 is how bad it has been across nearly all of the Lower 48.  Usually, at least some places have winter while others miss out - but this season, it's across the board.

That's what he and I are trying to say - trying to get people to care, and to stop minimizing things.  It's not right for winters to be warm like this.  People can debate the degree of CC vs. natural variability...but, either way, it's just not right.  So, we should say it.  And don't even get me started on UHI - a whole other issue which is extremely concerning.  If you step back and realize how much humans can impact temps in a city environment, it seems so unnatural...yet everyone just accepts it and moves on.  The normal January low at ORD has increased by 4-5F over 40 years - how can that be ok??  We as a society should be doing everything possible to stop this - but no one cares at all.  Gee, I wonder why - everything is "individual freedom" - heaven forbid we pool together and take collective action to solve problems. Individual freedom should be A consideration, not THE consideration. And then when a group of people actually does work very hard and summon up the courage to try to change something, it gets stalled because society/government/policy wonks/corporations/etc. don't want anything to change.  

For people who love winter, it has been hard to suffer through every winter since 2014-15. That's 9 winters in a row.  You can have the other 275 days in the year - what's so wrong with letting people have 90 days of consistent winter?  Most people on this board love winter, yet they act like bullies and put everyone else down when they express their true thoughts.  Why aren't we all in this together?  What's the problem with admitting that you love the season, and that the current situation is horrible? 

It doesn't matter what ENSO and the 5,000 other cyclical indices say; there should be more than 10 "good" days, even in the worst winters.  Not expecting 90 days - but at least 50 or 60.  The good folks in Minocqua and nearly every other place in the Lower 48 are suffering because of this.  No one wants to have a drink at the local watering hole, or get together with friends at a nice restaurant, when there is no snow for skiing, tubing, stargazing, snowshoeing, and other activities.  And a true, deep winter-like White Christmas (not just 1-3" of slop at best) has become a pipe dream, even though it's the shortest days of the year and it should just happen because of the calendar and the mystique around it.  The winter atmosphere is slipping away, and everyone is just staying silent while it happens.  It's catastrophic - so please let people speak up about it without feeling shy about it, and spread the word.  There is no need to rationalize something that is so bad - we just need to admit how horrible it is, and stop being in denial.  It can't and shouldn't be rationalized.

And I'm not saying we'll never have good snowstorms or occasional cold outbreaks again.  But that doesn't really matter either way...because winter is a mindset based on duration and consistency simply due to the calendar, not the ups and downs of individual storms and needing to hope for certain patterns to produce anything resembling true winter cold. In summer, we don't worry about warm temps - they just happen. And that's great, for summer. I'm not opposed to summer and any other seasons - just let them fit into their appropriate place on the calendar.

One thing I do agree on - there should be a separate thread for climate-related info.  But there's no need to jump down people's throats simply because they express genuine concern and frustration.  There could be a kind request to start a new thread - very simple.  In many aspects of life, it's difficult to deal with situations where you feel alone, like you're the only one experiencing something.  One purpose of these forums is to bring people together who have a common interest - so let's get back to that and support each other. It would probably be easier if we knew each other in person, instead of typing keystrokes through a screen.  I just want all of us to have good intentions, and do things for the right reasons.

If you want to take the "not so serious" angle - that's fine too.  For people who love winter, it has just sucked lately - there's no other way around it.  So let us complain and vent; I wish others did the same.  Stop the bickering - nothing to hide.

4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

the climate non-sense in every thread has gotten old quick.

Exactly, take it to the correct forum. 

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow! Dude, I read Tony Heller all the time. They used to run huge, multipage spreads about climate and weather events that today would be tame. Like the multi-page spread in the New York Herald from 1921, about the global heat wave and drought that year. Well, guess what, compared to today, that was a cold year globally. Most of the heat was in the U.S. and Europe, so it got more press.

But even in the U.S., pretty much every single year over the past several has been similarly warm or warmer than 2021. Do you see the New York Times running multi-page spreads about the weather every single year? No doubt if a global heat wave the magnitude of 2023 had hit 100 years ago, the ENTIRE news would be dedicated to it. That would literally be the biggest story of all time in that era.

Ignore 1873 - missing January and February data. Although it is hilarious that you can wipe out the COLDEST 1/6th of the year and still be 0.5F cooler than 2 of the past 4 years. That's the same as saying January & February could have averaged a ridiculous 53.5F that year, and it would still have been 0.5F cooler than 2021 & 2023 at Toledo.

Ignore annual means for 1863 & 1873 - both are missing January through March. But, once again, hilarious that you can wipe out the #1, #2, and #4 coldest months, and still produce a yearly mean similar to many recent years from the average of the remaining months.

Tony Heller is a proven fraud.

34 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Sour? What do I have to be sour about other than our lack of big dogs, which nothing you or Josh have stated proves me wrong. We do get some of our biggest snows in march but I'm ready for warmth once march rolls in. 

31 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Again wanting a big dog isn't unrealistic expectations. I don't expect them every year.  It's like you, Josh, or anyone saying we can get good (6+) snowstorms in march. Sure it can happen but unlikely, especially this winter.

25 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea no stats or facts you have stated disapproves my "dramatizations" of our big dog futility.

No one cares and you whine way too much about it. Furthermore I explained why it doesn't happen here and why it does for Chicago. You either don't care to read for comprehension or you are just being a troll who needs attention.

23 minutes ago, Powerball said:

My comment was more so focused on the "Winter is over" part of that tweet.

They are being flippant and are technically wrong (winter weather can certainly still happen well into March / April as has been pointed out), but I see the validity in the spirit of their statement in recognition of the broader pattern.

BTW, 2012 is funny in a way too because as much as folks talk about March, May was also fairly torchy (it just doesn't get discussed as much being that it sat right in the shadows of March) and both months sandwiched an April with a pretty hard freeze for many areas.

April 2012 was colder than March 2012 here at DTW. That's how insane it was above normal

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Some people get sour when their dramatizations are consistently proven wrong by facts. 

He just have unrealistic expectations for this location and loves to whine about them.

14 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Hmm I wonder who that one folk is that's gonna come along....

And that one folk is right, no matter how sour you are. Going into March last year, no one expected the amount of snow most of us got, if you did you are lying. Not saying its likely but it is far from impossible.

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Good shot at hitting 70 in the final few days of the month looks like.    

Some of the anomalies out there for this month are going to be incredible.

11 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Did Missouri get their two feet from lake Michigan too?

Right, because an all time historic storm is the weight measure. When you say something this ignorant it just proves you are being disingenuous to the discussion. Oh and this entire state has seen bigger storms too if you are going to go with top end values.

28 minutes ago, roardog said:

I remember how both the 2007 and 2016 collapsing Nino had a warm March that turned back to Winter in a big way for the first half of April. I think 1983 did that too. 

07/16 big severe in May in the plains May 1983 solid everywhere including locally.

I can see grass here too because it all melted already

28 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Ghd1 had nothing to do with lake Michigan. I am aware we do better than Chicago avg wise and with the smaller/avg events. I just get tired of the its not our climo b.s. to get a big dog, and its unrealistic to want one. The point is it's possible. Ec, minneapolis, Chicago, they've all had one in the last 20 years. 

Yes it did, they got enhancement off of Lake Michigan throughout the storm. It absolutely contributed to their totals.