Stebo

Day 3 Mod too

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0230 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND

EASTERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST

MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST

GEORGIA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE

ERN U.S. FROM THE LOWER AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS EWD...

...SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE U.S. THIS

PERIOD...WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX SHIFTING EWD INTO

THE MID SOUTH REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SECONDARY

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT S OF THE

MAIN GREAT LAKES REGION LOW. THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP FAVORS

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL E OF THE MS VALLEY.

...PA/NW SSWWD TO THE GULF COAST...

YET ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY VERY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS

EXPECTED DAY 3 /WED. AND EARLY THU. APR. 27 AND 28/ -- WITH ELEVATED

THREAT FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK EVIDENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND INTO

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD

ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AS THE POTENT

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDS

THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. WHILE AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW

SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST...SECONDARY SURFACE

LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE KY/TN

VICINITY...WITH LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE FLOW VEERING/INCREASING

SUBSTANTIALLY WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES VERY

SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE MOST FAVORABLE

COMBINATION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG SHEAR...FOCUSED

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND ANTICIPATED LACK OF APPRECIABLE PRIOR

CONVECTION INDICATES A RELATIVELY HIGH-CONFIDENCE AREA OF

CONCENTRATED SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES AND

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION.

THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE MODERATE RISK FORECAST ATTM --

INDICATIVE OF OUTBREAK POTENTIAL.

ALONG WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FARTHER

NNEWD INTO PA/NY -- INCLUDING THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND

ISOLATED TORNADOES...SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO EXTEND E OF THE

APPALACHIANS INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ALONG WITH THE

LIKELIHOOD FOR AFTERNOON SEVERE CONVECTION...SEVERE CONVECTION MAY

CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE FRONT CRESTS THE

APPALACHIANS.

..GOSS.. 04/25/2011

Yeah I was guessing that was where thewxmann pulled the crazy soundings. I saw those too earlier--interesting to see if/how that feature develops.

Yeah, if it were to develop you'd have a severe backing of the winds at the surface, and the potential of significant tornado action would skyrocket.

It is propagating along the warm front--you can see it in the theta-e fields. It is definitely feeding off the moist inflow. It is definitely convective in nature--no other way to explain 90 kt 850 wind fields. Oddly enough Euro, CMC, UK all suggest this type of feature.

Oh you are talking about that NAM meso low that formed? Yeah that definitely had a convectively induced look to it, although it is interesting that the other models all show it. Might be something to monitor the potential of as we move through next few days.

lol... off the charts anyone?

Amazing shear, but not a terribly high amount of instability in the sounding.

I don't have a lot of time to type, but man is this going to be a long 3-4 day stretch. Gotta feel for MEG, LZK, TSA, etc.

Yeah what I would pay to have Tuesday off so I could leave for Memphis after work today for 3 days.

Day 2 Moderate risk

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0100 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST

TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN

TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE

EASTERN U.S. FROM THE NORTHEAST/E COAST STATES TO THE LOWER MS

VALLEY/SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL

CONUS...AS ONE SHORTER-WAVELENGTH FEATURE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT

LAKES AND A SECOND DIGS SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE

BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY

SWWD INTO N TX...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE

CONVECTION -- INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER

OUTBREAK FOCUSED FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY

REGION.

...ARKLATEX REGION ENEWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

COMPLEX -- BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/DANGEROUS -- SEVERE WEATHER

EVENT IS UNFOLDING FOR THIS AREA FOR DAY 2 /TUE. AND EARLY WED./.

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHIFTING

EWD/ENEWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS ALONG WITH ONGOING SEVERE

POTENTIAL.

GREATER SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS REGION HOWEVER WILL EVOLVE LATER IN

THE DAY...AS AN INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEPARTING NEWD IS FOLLOWED

BY A SECOND/DIGGING FEATURE SHIFTING QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES

AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

AS THIS OCCURS...BACKING/INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD IS

FORECAST...WITH A 70-PLUS KT LOW-LEVEL JET TO SHIFT EWD FROM NE TX

ACROSS AR/LA DURING THE EVENING...BENEATH MID-LEVEL WLYS INCREASING

TO 70 TO 80 KT.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR

ALONG THE WARM FRONT...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS N TX AND AR TOWARD THE

MID MS VALLEY LATE. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON

ACROSS NE TX AND QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH LARGE

HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES EXPECTED. A SUBSTANTIAL

TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- SPREADING ACROSS NRN

LA/AR AND THEN INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS LATE. ALONG WITH TORNADO

POTENTIAL...DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE

STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR E

AS MIDDLE TN/NRN AR/NWRN GA BY 27/12Z.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/OH AND TN VALLEYS...

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE

SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT

LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS

ACROSS THIS AREA FOCUSING LARGE-SCALE UVV ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT

EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX. WHILE AFTERNOON

HEATING MAY BE HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD

COVER...LOCAL AREAS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT

AFTERNOON INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY -- AS FAR NE AS

PA AND NY NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WITH A STRONG SWLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA

/LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING FROM 50 TO 65 KT IN THE 850 TO 500 MB

LAYER/...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...ALONG WITH

LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS. ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING

WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED

TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD WITH TIME AS THE FRONT

SLOWLY ADVANCES...WITH SOME THREAT LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE

OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO NY/PA/WV.

...CAROLINAS/VA...

WEAK SHORT-WAVE FEATURES SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION --

EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD AHEAD ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE

LARGE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH -- WILL SUPPORT A BROAD ZONE OF AFTERNOON

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH HEATING OF THE

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OCCURING THROUGH THE DAY...INSTABILITY

WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE/VEERING FLOW

WITH HEIGHT -- TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/LOCALLY SEVERE

STORMS...INCLUDING THREATS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN

ISOLATED TORNADO. WITHOUT A CLEAR LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING

MECHANISM...WITH MAINTAIN ONLY 15%/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ATTM --

GIVEN THE BROAD/UNFOCUSED THREAT AREA.

At glance the NAM is taking the low over or to our west

GFS is way southeast of us

That is as far as I have gotten lol

Yeah Beau right now the GFS is on its own with the further SE track, all the rest are to the West of it.

00z EURO much more bullish on the severe weather threat farther North in the Ohio Valley on Tuesday - tracking the low farther NW with a broader and more expansive warm sector

Also further Northwest with the low on Wednesday Night compared to the GFS, which has agreement with the GGEM/UKMET/NAM, GFS is the furthest SE with this current forecast

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0350 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- ONGOING FROM THE DAY 3

/TUE. 4-26/ PERIOD -- IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE

OH/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES DAY 4 /WED. 4-27/...AS

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS BOTH FORECAST EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE

CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE

APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRE-FRONTAL WARM

SECTOR FEATURING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR

WILL SUPPORT CONTINUATION/REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS INTO THE

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER --

INCLUDING HAIL/WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES -- SUPPORTS CONTINUATION

OF A LARGE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA FOR DAY 4.

MODEL TIMING WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER

TROUGH BEGINS TO DIFFER MORE SUBSTANTIALLY DAY 5 /THU. 4-28/...THUS

CASTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND DEGREE OF

THREAT E OF THE APPALACHIANS DAY 5. THEREFORE...WHILE POTENTIALLY

SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST

STATES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY 4 PERIOD AND THE AFTERNOON

AND EVENING OF DAY 5...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC THREAT AREA

THIS FORECAST.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO HAVE SWEPT OFFSHORE BY THE START OF DAY 6

/FRI. 4-29/...FOCUS SHIFTS WWD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS ACROSS/OUT

OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ARE IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT WITH

THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE...AND THUS WILL NOT

HIGHLIGHT ANY LONGER-RANGE THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.

Some 03z SREF maps too

Monday

Tuesday

First look at Wednesday

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0230 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE

ERN U.S. FROM THE NORTHEAST SWWD INTO ERN TX/ERN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...

AS ONE FEATURE ALOFT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT

LAKES AREA...A SECOND WILL DIG QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND

INTO THE SRN PLAINS -- BOTH WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WHICH

WILL KEEP BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE

U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WHILE THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND

WEAKENS...LEAVING BEHIND A TRAILING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS

THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX...A SECOND FRONTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP -- AND

QUICKLY DEEPEN -- AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS TX AND INTO AR LATE. THIS

DEVELOPING LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE

WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID MS VALLEY REGION.

...ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AREA...

COMPLEX -- BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT -- SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE

UNFOLDING ACROSS THIS REGION...AS PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION INVOF A

SURFACE WARM FRONT RESULTS IN A SLOW INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE

AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY-APPROACHING UPPER FEATURE DIGGING SEWD FROM THE

ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS APPARENT

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE WARM FRONT --

THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP RAPIDLY FROM W TO

E BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN OK/E TX...AND THEN INTO THE EVENING

ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO NRN LA/AR AND EVENTUALLY THE MID MS VALLEY

REGION.

FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM

APPROACHES...AND AS BACKING/INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW EVOLVES IN

RESPONSE...SHEAR WILL BECOME HIGHLY-FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN

ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE

FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF

STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT FOCUSED ON AR AND VICINITY.

GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...UPGRADE TO HIGHER CATEGORY RISK APPEARS

LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS.

...SRN APPALACHIANS WWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION...

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT -- AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL

WEAK/EMBEDDED FEATURES -- ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZING

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SERN U.S. -- FROM VA AND

THE CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. WITH MODEST BUT

SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS A BROAD AREA...MULTICELL/LOCAL

SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS ACROSS A LARGE

PORTION OF THIS REGION. DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR ATTM...BUT WILL

INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF THIS REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FORECAST --

MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED

TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...

AS A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFT QUICKLY

NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE/REDEVELOP THROUGH THE

PERIOD. NARROWING DOWN EXACT AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL

REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME WITH WIDESPREAD AREA OF AT LEAST

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A BROAD AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT/FAVORABLE

SHEAR. DETAILS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT

ATTM...WILL INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION

SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE EPISODES

OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST -- INCLUDING

THREATS FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

Some 03 SREF images

Sunday

Monday

Nothing particularly high yet but a persistent area over E OK/AR/MO region for right now.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0350 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD

ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAYS 4-6 /TUE. 4-26 THROUGH THU. 4-28/...AS A

LARGE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY 4 ACROSS THE

MS VALLEY DAY 5...AND THEN ON EWD THROUGH DAYS 6/7. MODEL

DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BEGIN TO EMERGE

DAY 5...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7 AS

THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE E COAST STATES/ERN ATLANTIC.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DAY 4 IS PROGGED FROM E TX NEWD ACROSS THE

ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS ESEWD

INTO THIS REGION...WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. UNSTABLE AIRMASS

COMBINED WITH THE ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED/STRONG

FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING

RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT E OF THE MS VALLEY INTO THE MID

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DAY 5...AS THE SHORT-WAVE FEATURE TAKES ON A NEUTRAL

TO EVEN NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THIS REGION. AGAIN -- AMPLY

UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND

ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE

EXPECTED...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

AS MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND

SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS...DEGREE OF THREAT SHIFTING ACROSS THE

APPALACHIANS LATE DAY 5 AND INTO DAY 6 BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. WHILE

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE

ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL REFRAIN FROM

HIGHLIGHTING A THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.

WITH THE FRONT LIKELY OFFSHORE BY THE START OF DAY 7... SEVERE

WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. APPEARS LESS

WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AND MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF

THE PERIOD.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0228 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN

PLAINS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESS OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOW OVER THE CENTRAL

U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS ONE EMBEDDED SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH EJECTS

NEWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES

AND A SECOND DIGS ESEWD OUT OF THE ERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE SRN

ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS PERSISTED FROM THE

MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS

FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME NWD MOVEMENT OF THE

FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL WAVE

SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

...ERN OK/NERN TX ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN/LOWER AND MID

OH VALLEY REGION...

RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF

THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE/EXPAND

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES.

WITH MODERATELY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT FORECAST ATOP THE

SURFACE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS TO AGAIN

BECOME MOST INTENSE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING -- SIMILAR TO

PRIOR DAYS. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY

DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

ATTM...THE FORECAST AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE END OF

DAY 2 AND INTO DAY 3 RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECISE

LOCATION AND DEGREE OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE THREATS.

HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX

REGION TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF PROBABILITIES REFLECTIVE OF A

FAIRLY ACTIVE SEVERE THREAT.

Sounds like they wanted to go Mod but too many question marks at this junction to go mod.

I love this...right during the week before finals. Good thing is, there looks to be a pretty good threat here on Tuesday night around MI, so maybe i'll get something

I hope we get stuff on Monday, because Tuesday Evening I work and as much fun as a High Octane shift is, it would be nice to chase in MI too.

i thought the 12z Euro was faster than GFS? i could have sworn i saw the low in extreme NE Iowa by 12z Tues on Euro. and the GFS had it in central iowa. i could be mistaken. new Euro will be out in a few hrs and 0z GFS is in the process of coming out

A little faster but at this point for the low's to only be apart by half a state, and both be in the same general location is pretty good.

I would really like to know what model he is basing that forecast off of

Probably the GFS, its the hot hand right now. Although the Euro 12z has came in line with the GFS fairly nicely, so if that were to continue you would have inter/intramodel consistency from 2 of the best models.

Per Dr. Greg Forbes Facebook Page: Mon Apr 25. Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak in east half KS, central and east OK, central TX as far south as San Antonio, northeast TX, west and north AR, MO, southeast IA, IL, IN, south MI, west OH, extreme west KY.Dr. Forbes FB Page

Not sure what model he is favoring. Per GFS the low and warm front dont surge through my area till Tues. From the 12z run on GFS, the warm front has made it to south Wisconsin. I am in west central Illinois. the low is in central Iowa by 18z. I am hoping the system does slow down and times for Monday because I can't chase till after 3pm Tues. haha

I could see the area he mentioned being very close to being correct as of right now.

and this..

Wait this cant be a true, a chase potential on my day off ?

Talk about a high octane potential too. Like Baro said its been a while since we have seen a pattern like this. Compounded by what has already happened so far this month.

Operational and ensemble runs from the GFS and ECMWF have consistently indicated a huge longwave trough moving eastward over the Central U.S. during this time frame. Embedded within this large-scale trough will likely be at least a couple vort maxes, one of which looks likely to eject out into the Plains on April 25, and another right on its heels on April 26-27. Specifics are lacking at the moment since we're still 6+ days away, but the large-scale pattern is highly suggestive of a major severe weather/tornado outbreak occurring on at least one of these days, if not multiple days.

When do we tap out and say uncle. Honestly I can't remember a pattern this hyperactive since maybe May of 03.

This is nothing new. The private sector has long been a haven for new undergrads looking for experience.

No I agree, its just there might be more than before now.

You're better off doing something else if thats the case though, most people enter this field anticipating they'll eventually get an NWS job since outside of very small percentage of private sector people thats the only way to financially get by, unless of course you have a 2nd income...I'm fortunate enough to be one of those few to make it in the private sector but it took awhile to do so.

Yeah it's understandable but it seems like unless something were to change this would be what college grads will end up doing.

its not anything I have heard anything about. If this were to be true, you could essentially forget about getting a job out of college. Pretty much every new opening would go to military and it would cripple the ability for current NWS employees to advance. I think there may be some bill as suggested but I really doubt that it is a "you must hire veterans" bill.

This is NWS, it just means a lot more people will be entering the private sector jobs.

I can't remember what I got, it was either C-, C or D+...I know that much.

Yeah I think its a given if you are a Met you do poorly in calc. I got a C in calc 1, a C- in calc 2 and Calc 3.