Stebo
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Posts posted by Stebo
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Number of tornadoes 1425
First High Risk March 3rd
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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:
Can't say it's been a quiet start, overall. If you just look at tornado reports, there aren't many years outdoing this one so far.
Yeah so if anything today was a bust compared to other days which have yielded, just really a comment that made no sense.
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5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:
Yearly trend continues on, just not coming together in one way or another.
What yearly trend is that? We have had several events that have been significant, today wasn't a mind blowing day. Still severe storms out there but not tornadic, not exactly what I would call a bust. If the entire area was capped and nothing was happening then we'd be talking differently.
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17 hours ago, jojo762 said:
GFS seems to like the idea of an interesting system sometime around the 21st through the 23rd time frame across KS and the southern plains. Days of a relatively open GOM before hand would lead me to believe that moisture should not be too much of an issue. Biggest problem will probably be timing, as well as the potential for showers and crapvection in the warm sector.
I wouldn't worry about that detail, we are still several days out.
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It must absolutely be coming down in Cleveland
KCLE 300059Z 27015KT 1/8SM +SN FG VV004 01/M01 A2977 RMK AO2 P0006 T00111011
0.06" in 7 minutes is pretty insane rates.
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Just east of Baton Rouge
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
848 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR WATSON...GREENWELL SPRINGS...DENHAM
SPRINGS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT
* AT 843 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE REQUESTING
IMMEDIATE EVACUATIONS IN WATSON. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS
ALREADY OCCURRING. WATER RESCUES ARE ALSO TAKING PLACE IN AMITE.
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN DENHAM
SPRINGS.THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR WATSON. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING INCLUDE...
DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PORT VINCENT...GREENWELL SPRING...
SHENANDOAH.As for Baton Rouge proper...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
814 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...* UNTIL 215 PM CDT SATURDAY
* AT 813 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
BETWEEN 10 AND 26 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BATON ROUGE...ZACHARY...BAKER...DENHAM SPRINGS...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...PLAQUEMINE...PORT ALLEN...NEW ROADS...JACKSON...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...OAK HILLS PLACE...
ST. GABRIEL...WALKER...ADDIS...BRUSLY...
WHITE CASTLE AND LIVINGSTON.ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA. -
There is a severe thunderstorm nearly stationary over Custer State park in the South Dakota Black Hills right now. 3" hail was reported. Vehicles are said to be stuck in accumulating hail. Flash flooding may be ongoing.I don't know how to post the warnings. It is the Rapid city SD weather office.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
728 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
SDC033-103-210145-
/O.CON.KUNR.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-160521T0145Z/
CUSTER SD-PENNINGTON SD-
728 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL CUSTER AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNINGTON COUNTIES...
AT 728 PM MDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CUSTER STATE PARK TO KEYSTONE...AND ARE NEARLY
STATIONARY.
THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.
HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND MANY INCHES OF ACCUMULATED HAIL.
SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT. SEVERAL INCHES OF HAIL HAS ACCUMULATED IN
THE KEYSTONE AND IRON MOUNTAIN AREA.
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Never underestimate the strength of the LLJ. I would hedge my bets toward the GFS.Right, that would have to be very close to unprecedented for mid May. Just doesn't help ease concerns regarding whether we'll actually get the boundary to lift to the KS border by Monday like the more favorable GFS solution (relative to the ECMWF).
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NAM also has unrealistic shallow cold air bias. A high in thst location would already have a return flow. 48 isnt happening at 00z Monday.12z NAM has OKC at 48 F on 00z Mon with a 1024 mb high sitting over AR. Where's the gun blowing my brains out smiley?
GFS/ECMWF aren't nearly that brutal, but the latter doesn't instill a lot of confidence in Monday's potential setup. It has trended slightly better, though, now allowing moderate instability to lift into the TX PH and W OK.
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GFS is leaning heavily on climo which makes sense at this range, the fact it shows any instability is a good sign.12z Euro has another seasonally impressive event. As usual, GFS is more modest... but that's to be expected.
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Yeah.. I lose all rationality before chase trips. I'd argue I should be banned if I was a n00b and someone else.
I understand the worry, you don't want to have to spend money going all the way out there to see nothing. However, we both know you always see stuff out there, the outcome is always the same year to year, it is just the difference is in the details.
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Euro weeklies pretty much keep the same look going. Guess I'll toss any bad op runs in favor. 18z gfs has a cold front to the gulf late mo lol.
I wouldn't worry about an op run especially at a 15 day range...
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I am getting very interested in the period around and after April 7th. Looks like a wholesale pattern change with a prolonged trough in the west and a ridge in the east. I could certainly see this period yielding some potential systems of interest with a high ceiling at that.
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Like a 27c dew point, muggy would be an understatement.
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Was not born yet
*drops mic*
I was waiting for you to post this to make us all feel real old. lol
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Excellent write up. I was 3 during this summer. The 90s were definitely active with severe weather. I can remember some wicked storms growing up, and probably led to my interest in weather. Sent from my Galaxy Nexus
I feel old now.
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I was 7 during this summer, I remember going camping in the UP and having to wear a coat wherever we went. Remarkable to think this was over 20 years ago now.
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I found this a few days back and forgot to post it. Someone on youtube uploaded the entire National Geographic Witness episode about the Joplin tornado in 3 parts.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
A really good collection of videos and first hand accounts.
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While we are posting videos, let me share some crazy but little known Tuscaloosa videos.
Crazy close..
Almost direct hit here, and contains some of the best tornado roar audio iv'e heard
And this is the Hackleburg/ Phil Campbell tornado as it hit Harvest. This may be the scariest sky I have ever seen in a tornado video.
Great videos but the thing is all 3 of these videos should have never been shot, because all three should have been in their basements/safe places.
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For the record...over on page 50 I said EC's F5 rating for Elie, MB was suspicious. Just recently saw the video of the anchored house being torn off its foundation and thrown hundreds of feet as it explodes. Also saw photos of empty basements left where houses once were. There is surprisinly not a lot of damage photos and videos from that tornado. Sorry EC!
Not a lot of damage photos/videos because of the location it hit, Elie isn't exactly a booming metropolis plus most of your storm chasers chase only in USA which is where the lack of video comes in.
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As cold as it has been during the past month in Alaska, it's getting even more intense now.
Here are some current temps as sunrise nears...just amazing:
Huslia -62
Tanana -59
Bettles -58
Fort Yukon -56
Galena -56
Kaltag -55
McGrath -52
Noatak -51
Selawik -51
Nenana -50
Fairbanks -48
Lowest current wind chill: -74 in Shungnak (-49 with a southeast wind at 8 mph)
Looks like a repeat this morning, some of the center parts of AK are -50 to -60. Pretty incredible even for AK standards.
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He acted like he was still pretty excited, but I know it really freaked him out. I grew up in KC and have always been used to tornado warnings. But If I went to California and went through an earthquake I would be scared to death.
Yeah I'd like to hope that he kept his interest of Meteorology, seems like a smart kid with a very high interest in meteorology.
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This is an amazing story we did tonight. Weather fans will like this one. Here is the link,
Quite the experience right there.
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Jeff Piotrowskii's video and the aftermath as the pulled up at 20th and Iowa. The new footage begins at 3:50 or so. Not sure why there's a slowdown. At around 4:40 you see the remains of Franklin Tech.
When they come up on the Iowa and 20th area no words can describe what they saw.
Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2018
in Central/Western States
Posted
Last year wasn't a good chase season for a multitude of reasons including lack of intense tornadoes. It is pretty widely regarded in that respect that the year wasn't great.